000 AGXX40 KNHC 170623 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 223 AM EDT THU MAR 17 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL BLEND/WW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH FRI THEN MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS OVER THE GULF WATERS. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN DATA DEPICT FRESH TO STRONG WINDS OFF THE NORTH COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS PREVAILING ELSEWHERE. SEAS ARE IN THE 4-5 FT RANGE OFF THE COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... 2-3 FT OVER THE WESTERN WATERS AND 1-2 FT OVER THE EASTERN WATERS. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE SYNOPTIC SCENARIO WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT SHIFTING ACROSS THE GULF WATERS LATE FRI NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE STRONGEST MODEL DEPICTING GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE WESTERN WATERS SUNDAY WHILE THE ECMWF...UKMET...AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO CAP WINDS AT 30 KT. WILL CONTINUE TO CAP WINDS AT 30 KT AT THIS TIME. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL BLEND/WW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS N OF THE FORECAST AREA. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN DATA DEPICT FRESH TO STRONG WINDS OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND GULF OF HONDURAS WITH FRESH WINDS PREVAILING OVER THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE OVER THE CARIBBEAN AS WELL AS OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS. COMPARISON OF SCATTEROMETER WINDS WITH 00Z GFS INDICATES THAT THE GFS WAS WELL INITIALIZED WITH THIS SCENARIO. SEAS ARE IN THE 6-8 FT OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...5-6 FT OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS...AND 3-4 FT OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WATERS. OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS...SEAS ARE IN THE 5-7 FT RANGE. HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE AREA WILL BUILD THROUGH SAT WITH WINDS AND SEAS INCREASING ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT BRINGING A COLD FRONT INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN WATERS SUN NIGHT INTO MON. NE SWELL WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL BLEND/WW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS OVER THE SW N ATLC WATERS. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN DATA DEPICT MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS OVER THE FAR NE WATERS...GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE NORTHERN WATERS AS WELL AS OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS WHILE LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ELSEWHERE. SEAS ARE IN THE 6-8 FT RANGE OVER THE FAR NE WATERS AND A MIX OF NW AND NE SWELLS ARE PROPAGATING ACROSS THE AREA. 3-5 FT SEAS PREVAIL OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE SW N ATLC WATERS OUTSIDE THE BAHAMAS AND 1-2 FT W OF THE BAHAMAS. A COUPLE OF WEAK PERTURBATIONS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN WATERS THROUGH SATURDAY. THE RIDGE WILL RETREAT EASTWARD THIS WEEKEND ENABLING A COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE NW WATERS SUNDAY. WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS AHEAD AND BEHIND THE FRONT AS THE COLD FRONT SHIFTS ACROSS THE AREA. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER AL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.