000 AGXX40 KNHC 161727 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 127 PM EDT WED MAR 16 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL BLEND BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WIND FORECAST. 12Z NWPS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL WAVE FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH FRI THEN MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. LARGE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE 06Z GFS AND THE OTHER GLOBAL MODELS COME INTO PLAY BY SAT AS LOW PRES DEVELOPS OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO AND MOVES E. THE 06Z AND 12Z GFS WERE FASTER THAN ALL OF THE OTHER GLOBAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLES TO MOVE THE LOW THROUGH THE GULF AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE ATLC...ESPECIALLY BY SAT NIGHT. THE GRIDS WERE ADJUSTED TOWARD THE MODEL CONSENSUS BY BLENDING THE 00Z ECMWF WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THIS CAPPED THE WINDS ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST BEHIND THE FRONT AT 30 KT COMPARED TO THE GALES SEEN IN THE GFS. GALE FORCE WINDS WERE NOT FORECAST BY THE 00Z ECMWF OR THE 12Z UKMET. THIS WIND FORECAST WAS ADOPTED FOR THE 12Z NWPS RUN...SO IT WAS USED TO ADJUST THE SEAS. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL BLEND BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WIND FORECAST. 12Z NWPS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL WAVE FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH FRI THEN MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. THE 12Z GFS WAS THE BEST INITIALIZED WITH THE FRESH TO STRONG E-SE WINDS N OF HONDURAS AND THE NE-E WINDS NEAR THE CENTRAL COLOMBIAN COAST THIS MORNING. IT GENERALLY PERFORMS BETTER WITH THE TERRAIN INFLUENCED WINDS IN THESE AREAS BY SHOWING STRONGER WINDS...SO IT WAS RELIED ON MORE HEAVILY THROUGH FRI. BY THE WEEKEND...CONFIDENCE DIMINISHES AS THE MODELS DIVERGE WITH THEIR HANDLING OF LOW PRES MOVING E ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND TAKING A COLD FRONT INTO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. THE 00Z ECMWF WAS USED TO ADJUST THE GRIDS WITH THE FRONT. THIS WIND FORECAST WAS ADOPTED FOR THE 12Z NWPS RUN...SO IT WAS USED TO ADJUST THE SEAS. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL BLEND BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WIND FORECAST. 12Z NWPS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL WAVE FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH FRI THEN MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. A COLD FRONT OVER NE WATERS WILL MOVE S THROUGH FAR E WATERS THROUGH THU THEN SHIFT E OF THE AREA. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRES CENTERED IN SE WATERS NEAR 25N WILL SHIFT NE TO 27N65W THROUGH FRI. A NEW COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NW WATERS THU NIGHT. CONFIDENCE WANES AS THE FRONT SHIFTS E ACROSS WATERS N OF 27N FRI AND BEGINS TO RETREAT N OVER NW WATERS FRI NIGHT. THE 06Z AND 12Z GFS HAVE BEEN OUTLIERS WITH THEIR FAST FORECAST FOR A WAVE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY MOVING E-NE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE ATLC SAT NIGHT. THE GFS WAS NOT PREFERRED. THE 12Z UKMET CALLS FOR 30 KT SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER NW WATERS SUN...WITH GALES IN THE AFTERNOON NEAR 31N76W. THE 00Z ECMWF IS WEAKER AND SHOWS 30 KT WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AS FAR SW AS 29N76W AT 18Z SUN AND SHIFTING NE AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER FORECAST WATERS THROUGH LATE MON BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES E OF THE AREA. THE GFS NEVER SHOWS GALES AS IT CARRIES THE DEEPENING LOW WELL N OF THE AREA FASTER THAN THE MODEL CONSENSUS. FOR NOW...THE 00Z ECMWF SEEMS BEST TO BLEND WITH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST AS IT IS CLOSEST TO THE MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS. THIS WIND FORECAST WAS ADOPTED FOR THE 12Z NWPS RUN...SO IT WAS USED TO ADJUST THE SEAS. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER SCHAUER. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.