000 AGXX40 KNHC 160626 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 226 AM EDT WED MAR 16 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS/WW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH FRI THEN MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE GULF WATERS. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN DATA DEPICT GENTLE TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC WINDS FLOW OVER THE AREA...EXCEPT FOR THE FAR E GULF WHERE LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS PREVAIL. SEAS ARE IN THE 2-3 FT RANGE ACROSS THE GULF WATERS. A COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE FAR NORTHERN WATERS THUS WHERE IT WILL LINGER THROUGH LATE FRI. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW GULF SATURDAY MORNING WITH THE FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE GULF WATERS AND SE OF THE AREA LATE SUN INTO EARLY MON. WINDS AND SEAS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. ONCE EXCEPTION IS OFF THE YUCATAN COAST WHERE WINDS WILL FRESHEN EACH NIGHT AND BRIEFLY REACH 25 KT DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...REACHING NEAR GALE FORCE OVER THE WESTERN WATERS. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE SW GULF WATERS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE GFS IS STRONGER THAN THE ECMWF INDICATING GALE FORCE WINDS WHILE THE ECMWF IS KEEPING WINDS BELOW GALE FORCE. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES ARE INDICATING WINDS REMAIN BELOW GALE FORCE. WILL CAP WINDS AT 30 KT FOR NOW AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SITUATION. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS/WW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS N OF THE AREA. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN DATA DEPICT FRESH TO STRONG WINDS OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND THE GULF OF HONDURAS. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN...WHILE LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS. SEAS ARE IN THE 5-8 FT RANGE OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...3-5 FT OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...3-4 FT OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...3-5 FT OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...EXCEPT REACHING NEAR 7 FT OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS...AND 5-6 FT OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL N OF THE AREA. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY. WINDS WILL BE LOCALLY HIGHER OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS WHERE WINDS WILL BE IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE DURING THE DAY AND PULSING TO 25 KT DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SLIGHTLY BY WEEKS END WHICH WILL BRING AN INCREASE TO WINDS AND SEAS OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NORTHERLY SWELL WILL PROPAGATE INTO THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS WITH SEAS BUILDING TO NEAR 8 FT BY THU NIGHT. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS/WW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH SATURDAY THEN MEDIUM SUNDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PREVAIL OVER THE FORECAST AREA. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY... AND CMAN DATA DEPICT GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN WATERS WITH LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ALONG THE RIDGE AXIS WHICH RUNS ROUGHLY E-W ALONG 23/24N. SEAS ARE IN THE 3-4 FT RANGE OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST WATERS OUTSIDE THE BAHAMAS AND 1-2 FT W OF THE BAHAMAS. SEAS ARE BUILDING OVER THE FAR NW WATERS IN A MIX OF NW AND NE SWELL WITH SEAS CURRENTLY IN THE 6-8 FT RANGE. A SERIES OF WEAK PERTURBATIONS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE A STRONGER COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE FAR NW WATERS LATE SAT/EARLY SUN. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BUILD OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS WITH THIS FRONT...PERHAPS EVEN REACHING NEAR GALE FORCE OVER THE FAR NORTHERN WATERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON SUNDAY. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER AL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.