000
AGXX40 KNHC 151801
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
201 PM EDT TUE MAR 15 2016

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS/WW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL
FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE OF 1018 MB LOCATED OVER THE NW BAHAMAS EXTENDS A
RIDGE ACROSS THE GULF WATERS PRODUCING MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE
WINDS AND SEAS GENERALLY UNDER 5 FT AS NOTED PER A COUPLE OF
ALTIMETER PASSES AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL
PREVAIL OVER THE FORECAST WATERS MUCH OF THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE FAR N WATERS LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WHERE IT
WILL STALL THROUGH EARLY SAT BEFORE A REINFORCING PUSH MOVES THE
FRONT SOUTHWARD. EXPECT FRESH TO STRONG N TO NE WINDS IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT BY EARLY FRI MORNING. THESE WINDS WILL PERSIST ON SAT
AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD REACHING THE SOUTH WATERS ALONG
23N-24N BY SAT NIGHT. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD TO 8-9 FT BEHIND
THE FRONT.

FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG EASTERLY WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED NEAR AND
TO THE NW OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA BETWEEN 0000-1200 UTC THROUGH
THU NIGHT DUE TO LOCAL EFFECTS INDUCED BY A THERMAL TROUGH.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS/WW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL
FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS N OF THE AREA. LATEST SCATTEROMETER
AND SURFACE DATA DEPICT MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS OVER THE SOUTH
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS. GENTLE TO MODERATE
WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA AS WELL AS
THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS. SEAS ARE IN THE 5-7 FT RANGE OVER THE
SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...3-4 FT OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN...AND 5-6 FT OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS. BENIGN
MARINE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS N OF THE AREA WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS NEAR THE COAST OF
COLOMBIA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
SLIGHTLY N OF THE AREA TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK WHICH WILL BRING
A SLIGHT INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS ACROSS THE REGION FRI AND SAT.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS/WW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL
FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PREVAIL OVER THE FORECAST AREA
WITH A RIDGE AXIS ALONG 24N-25N WHERE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE
NOTED. SCATTEROMETER DATA PROVIDED OBSERVATIONS OF MODERATE TO
LOCALLY FRESH WINDS ACROSS THE N WATERS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD JUST N OF AREA. THE SOUTHERN END
OF THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO REACH 25N JUST E OF THE FORECAST
REGION WED NIGHT INTO THU SUPPORTING MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH
NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE FAR EAST WATERS WITH BUILDING SEAS TO
8-9 FT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE FAR NW WATERS FRIDAY AND
DIP SOUTHWARD BEFORE STALLING OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS SAT. WINDS
AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH SAT. NW SWELLS WILL CLIP THE FAR NE WATERS
WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 8-9 FT WED AND THU BEFORE SUBSIDING BELOW 8
FT BY LATE THU.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER GR. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.