000
AGXX40 KNHC 101820
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
120 PM EST THU MAR 10 2016

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: 12Z GFS/WW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL
FORECAST. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

ASCAT DATA SHOWS A SIZABLE AREA OF STRONG SE WINDS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GULF. GFS APPEARS BETTER INITIALIZED THAN THE WEAKER 00Z
ECMWF. EVEN SO...WINDS AND SEAS HAD TO BE ADJUSTED HIGHER TO
MATCH OBS MORE CLOSELY. MODELS SHOW WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISHING
TONIGHT. EXPECT THE FRONT TO DRIFT EASTWARD THROUGH EARLY SAT.
ALTHOUGH WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT WEAKEN...QPF VALUES REMAIN
HIGH...SO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS COVER A SIZABLE
PORTION OF GULF IN WX GRIDS THROUGH SAT.
 
...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: 12Z GFS/WW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL
FORECAST. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

ASCAT DATA SHOWS THAT THE MODELS ARE 1-2 KT TOO WEAK WITH THE
WINDS ACROSS THE BASIN. OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO MON...THE GFS IS
PREFERRED WITH THE WEAKENING OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH N OF THE
AREA. THE ECMWF BREAKS DOWN THE RIDGE FASTER THAN THE GFS AND
DIMINISHES THE WINDS IN THE CARIBBEAN SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE GFS
AS A RESULT. BY SUN...CONFIDENCE WANES SLIGHTLY AS THE NWPS IS
FASTER TO SUBSIDE THE SEAS AS THE WINDS BEGIN TO WEAKEN THAN THE
MWW3. IT APPEARS TO DO SO MORE QUICKLY THAN EXPECTED...SO THE MWW3
WAS USED TO KEEP THE SEAS UP TO AGREE WITH GFS WINDS.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: 12Z GFS/WW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL
FORECAST. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

ASCAT DATA SHOWS THAT THE MODELS ARE 2-3 KT TOO WEAK WITH THE
WINDS S OF 24N IN THE WESTERN ATLC. WINDS AND SEAS WERE BUMPED
UP EARLY IN THE PERIOD. STRONG HIGH PRES N OF 30N APPEARS UNDER
REPRESENTED IN GFS ANALYSIS. HOWEVER...THE MODELS IN REASONABLY
GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE STRENGTH AND POSITION OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE THROUGH FRI. BY SAT NIGHT...THE ECMWF BREAKS DOWN THE
RIDGE FASTER THAN THE GFS...WHICH REMAINS FAVORED SOLUTION.
EXPECT COLD FRONT TO BRUSH PAST NE ZONES AND DROP S OF 30N INTO
CENTRAL ATLC SAT. 
 
$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
.AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W
INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN...
     GALE WARNING TODAY INTO SAT. 
.AMZ039...SW CARIBBEAN S OF 11N INCLUDING APPROACHES TO PANAMA
CANAL...
     GALE WARNING TONIGHT.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER MUNDELL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.