000 AGXX40 KNHC 100732 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 232 AM EST THU MAR 10 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: 00Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WIND FORECAST. 06Z NWPS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WAVE FORECAST. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. ASCAT DATA SHOWS A SIZABLE AREA OF 30-33 KT WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF. THE 00Z GFS IS BETTER INITIALIZED THAN THE WEAKER 00Z ECMWF. IT IS ALSO COMPARING BETTER TO THE 40 KT WINDS SEEN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT NEAR AND JUST N OF TAMPICO MEXICO IN THE 0328 UTC ASCAT-A PASS THAN THE WEAKER ECMWF. WINDS STILL HAD TO BE ADJUSTED STRONGER IN BOTH OF THESE LOCATIONS TO MATCH OBSERVATIONS. BOTH MODELS SHOW WINDS DIMINISHING BELOW 30 KT BY 18Z THU. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE SLOWER CARRYING THE FRONT EASTWARD THAN THE GFS...WHICH IS GENERALLY PREFERRED...BUT THE DIFFERENCES ARE RELATIVELY MINOR. THE GFS WAS USED TO ADJUST THE WIND FORECAST. THE 06Z NWPS ACCOUNTS FOR THE WINDS SEEN IN THE ASCAT PASS AND USED THE FAVORED STRONGER WIND FORECAST EARLY IN THE PERIOD. IT WAS USED TO ADJUST THE WAVE FORECAST. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: 00Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WIND FORECAST. 06Z NWPS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WAVE FORECAST THROUGH SAT NIGHT...THEN THE 00Z MWW3 WAS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. LIKE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE ASCAT PASSES SINCE 00Z REVEAL THAT THE MODELS ARE TOO WEAK WITH THE WINDS ACROSS THE BASIN. THE 0238 UTC PASS SHOWED MINIMAL GALES ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND THE FAR SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AS WELL AS 30-33 KT IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. THE 00Z GFS IS SLIGHLTY STRONGER WITH THE WINDS IN THESE AREAS THAN THE 00Z ECMWF...BUT IT IS STILL AT LEAST 5 KT WEAK. OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO MON...THE GFS IS PREFERRED WITH THE WEAKENING OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH N OF THE AREA. THE ECMWF BREAKS DOWN THE RIDGE FASTER THAN THE GFS OR THE GEFS AND EC ENS MEANS SHOW...AND THE ECMWF DIMINISHES THE WINDS IN THE CARIBBEAN SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE GFS AS A RESULT. THE GFS IS PREFERRED HERE OVERALL. THE 06Z NWPS WILL BE USED TO ADJUST SEAS THROUGH SAT NIGHT. BY SUN...CONFIDENCE WANES SLIGHTLY AS THE NWPS IS FASTER TO SUBSIDE THE SEAS AS THE WINDS BEGIN TO WEAKEN THAN THE MWW3. IT APPEARS TO DO SO MORE QUICKLY THAN EXPECTED...SO THE MWW3 WAS USED TO KEEP THE SEAS UP AS THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH MORE SLOWLY THAN THE PREVIOUS WIND FIELD THE NWPS IS BASED ON SUGGESTED. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: 00Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WIND FORECAST. 06Z NWPS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WAVE FORECAST. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. THE MODELS ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE STRENGTH AND POSITION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THROUGH FRI. HOWEVER...BOTH THE 00Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF ARE WEAK WITH THE INITIAL WIND FIELD N OF CUBA AND IN THE ATLC APPROACHES TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. WINDS AND SEAS WERE BUMPED UP EARLY IN THE PERIOD...AS THEY HAD TO BE ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE CARIBBEAN...IN ORDER TO MATCH OBSERVATIONS. BY SAT NIGHT...THE ECMWF BREAKS DOWN THE RIDGE FASTER THAN THE GFS OR THE GEFS AND EC ENS MEANS SHOW. THE 00Z GFS WAS USED TO ADJUST THE WINDS. THE 06Z NWPS INCORPORATED THE FAVORED WIND FIELD AND WAS USED TO ADJUST THE SEAS. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ013...N CENTRAL GULF INCLUDING FLOWER GARDEN BANKS MARINE SANCTUARY... GALE WARNING EARLY TODAY INTO TODAY. .GMZ017...W CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N W OF 94W... GALE WARNING EARLY TODAY. .GMZ019...CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N BETWEEN 87W AND 94W... GALE WARNING EARLY TODAY INTO TODAY. .GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... GALE WARNING EARLY TODAY. .GMZ025...E BAY OF CAMPECHE INCLUDING CAMPECHE BANK... GALE WARNING EARLY TODAY. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ021...CARIBBEAN FROM 15N TO 18N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W... GALE WARNING EARLY TODAY. .AMZ023...CARIBBEAN N OF 15N BETWEEN 64W AND 72W... GALE WARNING EARLY TODAY. .AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... GALE WARNING EARLY TODAY INTO FRI NIGHT. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. .AMZ039...SW CARIBBEAN S OF 11N INCLUDING APPROACHES TO PANAMA CANAL... GALE WARNING EARLY TODAY INTO TONIGHT. GALE WARNING FRI NIGHT. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER SCHAUER. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.