000 AGXX40 KNHC 091936 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 236 PM EST WED MAR 9 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: FOR WINDS...12Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. FOR WAVES...12Z MWW3 ALONG WITH SMALL WEIGHT OF NWPS PARAMETERS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. THE LATEST ANALYSIS AND SURFACE/BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOW THE FRONT MAKING SLOW PROGRESS THROUGH EASTERN TEXAS WITH LOW PRES OF 1001 MB OVER FAR SRN TX. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...A SQUALL LINE HAS BECOME EVIDENT FROM JUST E OF CORPUS CHRISTI TO 23N96W. THE GOES- R LIGHTNING DENSITY DATA IS SHOWING NUMEROUS LIGHTNING STRIKES WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS TSTMS ALONG AND WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE SQUALL LINE. THIS ACTIVITY IS RACING NNE TOWARDS SW LOUISIANA. A VERY TIGHT PRES GRADIENT CONTINUING BETWEEN BROAD LOW PRES OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE GULF AND HIGH PRES RIDGING IN THE EASTERN HALF IS BRINGING NEAR GALE TO GALE FORCE SLY WINDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NW AND N CENTRAL GULF. THE CURRENT FORECAST STILL REFLECTS THESE CONDITIONS. BUOY WAVE HEIGHT REPORTS ARE AGREEING WITH RECENT ALTIMETER DATA IN SHOWING SEAS OF 11-13 FT IN THE NW PART OF THE N CENTRAL GULF...AND SEAS OF 8-12 FT ELSEWHERE W OF ABOUT 84W. SEAS E OF 84W...INCLUDING THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA ARE IN THE 7-10 FT RANGE. CURRENT OBSERVED SEA STATE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE 12Z MWW3 OUTPUT. THIS FORECAST WILL HAVE VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS ONES. THE COLD FRONT OVER EASTERN TEXAS WILL BE SLOW IN ADVANCING EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS AS ITS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL HANG QUITE FAR TO ITS W. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO REACH A PSN FROM E CENTRAL TEXAS TO 24N96W TO JUST OF TAMPICO EARLY TONIGHT...THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND SLOW DOWN FURTHER AS IT REACHES FROM AN OCCLUDED FRONT OVER NE TEXAS TO 24N95W TO 19N95W BY EARLY WED MORNING. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT FRONT THEN DRIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE WRN GULF THROUGH FRI NIGHT BEFORE GETTING SOME EXTRA PUSH TO PSN FROM SE LOUISIANA TO NEAR 24N92W TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE BY EARLY SAT AFTERNOON. THE MODELS DEPICT WHAT APPEARS TO BE WHAT IS LEFT OF THE FRONT TO REACH THE NE GULF AREA SUN AFTERNOON...THEN WASH OUT SUN EVENING AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT TO MODERATE ON EITHER SIDE OF IT. THE NEAR GALE TO GALE FORCE WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE DIMINISHING TO BELOW GALE FORCE LATE THIS AFTERNOON FOR ZONES GMZ011 AND GMZ017...AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY THU MORNING FOR ZONES GMZ013...GMZ019 AND GMZ023. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: FOR WINDS...12Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. FOR WAVES...12Z MWW3 ALONG WITH SMALL WEIGHT OF NWPS PARAMETERS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. HIGH CONFIDENCE. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS OVER THE SW N ATLC WATERS. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND ASCAT DATA ALONG WITH SHIP AND BUOY DEPICT FRESH TO STRONG WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE WATERS N OF 18N...INCLUDING THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AS WELL AS WELL AS S OF HISPANIOLA AND OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. THE 1438Z ASCAT PASS SUGGESTED THESE WIND SPEEDS. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WATERS. SEAS ARE IN THE 7-8 FT RANGE OVER THE WATERS WHERE STRONG WINDS PREVAIL AND 3-5 FT OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS AS ANALYZED IN THE 18Z PRELIMINARY ANALYSIS...AND CLEARLY DEPICTED IN THE 1256Z ASCAT PASS WHERE IT SHOWED A DISTINCT DIFFERENCE IN THE WINDS (BOTH IN SPEEDS AND DIRECTION) TO THE N AND S OF THE FRONT. BASED ON THIS OBSERVATION... IT APPEARS THAT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY BE TRANSITIONING TO A SHEAR LINE. WINDS ARE IN THE MODERATE TO FRESH RANGE N OF THE FRONT AND LIGHT TO GENTLE S OF THE FRONT. SEAS N OF THE FRONT HAVE INCREASED TO 8- 11 FT IN NW TO N SWELL. SEAS S OF THE FRONT ARE IN THE 4-6 FT IN NW SWELL. HIGH PRES WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD N OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL TIGHTEN THE PRES GRADIENT OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS AND INCREASE TRADES. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA EARLY THU AND FRI MORNINGS AS A RESULT OF THIS TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AS FRESH TO STRONG WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. THE AREA OF HIGH PRES WILL START TO WEAKEN BY FRI NIGHT AS IT SHIFTS SE. THIS WILL LOOSEN THE GRADIENT AND DIMINISH TRADES BY SATURDAY. SEAS WILL PEAK NEAR 14 FT OVER THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THU AND FRI DUE TO THE GALE FORCE WINDS...THEN SUBSIDE TO 10 FT SAT NIGHT AND TO 8 FT ON SUN AND MON. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: 12Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. FOR WAVES...12Z MWW3 ALONG WITH SMALL WEIGHT OF NWPS PARAMETERS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. HIGH CONFIDENCE. STRONG HIGH PRES PREVAILS OVER THE FORECAST AREA. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN DATA DEPICT FRESH TO STRONG WINDS OVER THE SW WATERS INCLUDING THE APPROACHES TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE WITH MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS OVER THE SE PART AND GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. SEAS ARE IN THE 8-9 FT RANGE E OF A LINE FROM 31N68W TO E OF CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND TO PUERTO RICO DUE OT A NE SWELL...4-6 FT OVER THE NW WATERS...AND 3-5 FT W OF THE BAHAMAS...EXCEPT FOR SEAS OF 8-10 FT W OF 79W INCLUDING THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. THE AREA OF HIGH PRES WILL BUILD THROUGH FRI MAINTAINING THE FRESH TO STRONG TRADES OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS. THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN BY LATE FRI. THIS WILL FOR THE WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION TO DIMINISH SAT AND CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH SUN. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ013...N CENTRAL GULF INCLUDING FLOWER GARDEN BANKS MARINE SANCTUARY... GALE WARNING TONIGHT INTO THU. .GMZ019...CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N BETWEEN 87W AND 94W... GALE WARNING TONIGHT INTO THU. .GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... GALE WARNING TONIGHT INTO THU. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... GALE WARNING TONIGHT INTO THU NIGHT. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THU INTO FRI. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER AGUIRRE. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.