000 AGXX40 KNHC 090738 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 238 AM EST WED MAR 9 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: 00Z ECMWF BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WIND FORECAST. 06Z NWPS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WAVE FORECAST. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. ASCAT DATA SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF 30-33 KT SE WINDS IN THE CENTRAL GULF AROUND 03Z-04Z. THE 03Z SREF HAS COME IN WITH UP TO A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF GALES HERE INITIALLY. WHILE NONE OF THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS OR THE GEFS/SREF MEMBERS SHOW GALES...THE ASCAT IS BIASED SLIGHTLY WEAK FOR WINDS AT GALE FORCE. WILL ADJUST THE FORECAST TOWARD A STRONGER SOLUTION EARLY ON...WHICH IS STILL IN LINE WITH THE GALE WARNING THAT IS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT BASED ON FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE FORCE. LOCAL FORECAST OFFICES IN THE NW GULF ARE CALLING FOR FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE FORCE CONTINUING UNTIL MIDDAY THU. THE GEFS SHOWS UP TO A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF GALES HERE AT 06Z THU. THINGS SEEM ON TRACK TO MAINTAIN THE GALE WARNING 18Z THU AS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. THE GFS HAS TRENDED TOWARD THE SLOWER ECMWF OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...SO THE ECMWF WAS PREFERRED FOR BLENDING WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE 06Z NWPS SEEMS REASONABLE FOR ADJUSTING THE SEAS AS IT IS DOING THE BEST OF THE MODELS CAPTURING THE SPREAD OF THE BUILDING SEAS EASTWARD INTO THE SE GULF COMPARED TO OBSERVATIONS. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: 00Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WIND FORECAST. 06Z NWPS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WAVE FORECAST THROUGH FRI NIGHT THEN THE 00Z MWW3/EC WAVE WAS USED. HIGH CONFIDENCE. THERE CONTINUES TO BE GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE GLOBAL MODELS ON THE AMPLIFIED PATTERN N OF THE AREA THROUGH FRI. THE 00Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF ARE SLIGHTLY WEAK WITH THE WINDS IN THE NW CARIBBEAN AND THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE COMPARED TO ASCAT. ADJUSTMENTS WILL BE MADE TO MATCH THE OBSERVATIONS INITIALLY. BLENDING IN THE 06Z NWPS...WHICH IS HIGHER THAN THE MWW3 IN THE LOCATIONS OF THE STRONGEST WIND AND MORE IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF...HELPED GET THE SEAS CLOSER TO THE OBSERVATIONS. THE 00Z GFS SOLUTION WAS PREFERRED FOR ADJUSTING THE WIND GRIDS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AS IT GENERALLY DOES BETTER BY BEING STRONGER. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY THU AND THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI MORNING AS A RESULT. THE 06Z NWPS WILL BE USED TO ADJUST SEAS THROUGH FRI NIGHT. BY SAT...THE NWPS WAS FASTER TO SUBSIDE THE SEAS AS THE WINDS BEGIN TO WEAKEN. IT APPEARS TO DO SO MORE QUICKLY THAN EXPECTED...SO THE MWW3/EC WAVE WAS USED TO KEEP THE SEAS UP IN THE LONG-FETCH EASTERLY SWELL. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: 00Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WIND FORECAST. 06Z NWPS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WAVE FORECAST. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. THE MODELS CONTINUE AGREE ON THE AMPLIFIED LONG-WAVE PATTERN HERE WHICH IS NOT EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO BREAKDOWN UNTIL THU EVENING. FRESH TO STRONG NE TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER WATERS PRIMARILY S OF 25N TODAY THROUGH THU NIGHT. PREVIOUSLY...DIFFERENCES BEGAN TO ARISE BY FRI WHEN THE HIGH PRES BEGINS TO WEAKEN AS A FRONT PASSES TO ITS N. THE ECMWF HAS TRENDED TOWARD THE SLOWER GFS SOLUTION HERE AND IS NOW MUCH CLOSER TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS. WILL MAKE ADJUSTMENTS TOWARD THE GFS AND 06Z NWPS HERE. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ011...NW GULF INCLUDING STETSON BANK... GALE WARNING EARLY TODAY INTO TODAY. .GMZ013...N CENTRAL GULF INCLUDING FLOWER GARDEN BANKS MARINE SANCTUARY... GALE WARNING EARLY TODAY INTO THU. .GMZ017...W CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N W OF 94W... GALE WARNING EARLY TODAY. .GMZ019...CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N BETWEEN 87W AND 94W... GALE WARNING EARLY TODAY INTO THU. .GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... GALE WARNING TONIGHT. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... GALE WARNING TONIGHT INTO THU NIGHT. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THU NIGHT INTO FRI. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER SCHAUER. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.