000 AGXX40 KNHC 080737 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 237 AM EST TUE MAR 8 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: 00Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WIND FORECAST. 06Z NWPS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WAVE FORECAST. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. ASCAT DATA SHOW A FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE OVER MUCH OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...WITH A LARGE AREA OF NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG 95W IN ZONE GMZ017. THE MODELS ARE ALL TOO WEAK HERE COMPARED TO THE OBSERVATIONS. LOCAL FORECAST OFFICES IN THE NW GULF ARE CALLING FOR FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE FORCE STARTING 00Z WED. THE GEFS SHOWS UP TO A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF GALES HERE AT 12Z WED. CHANGES WILL BE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TO REFLECT A GALE WARNING FOR FREQUENT GUSTS IN THE OFFSHORE ZONES AS WELL. THE 00Z ECMWF HAS TRENDED SLOWER CARRYING THE UPPER TROUGH NEGATIVE TILT OUT OF MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE OTHER MODELS AND ENS MEANS SUGGEST A FASTER SOLUTION...BUT THE GFS HAS ALSO TRENDED SLOWER. OVERALL...THINK A SOLUTION THAT IS SLOWER THAN THE GFS AND PREVIOUS FORECAST IS IN ORDER. THIS SOLUTION IS CLOSEST TO THE 00Z UKMET. THE 00Z UKMET SHOWS GALES IN THE SW AND W CENTRAL GULF AHEAD OF THE FRONT AT 00Z THU AND AGREES WITH THE GFS ON A LARGE AREA OF GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE N CENTRAL GULF 06Z-12Z THU. THE SREFS NEVER SHOW MORE THAN A 10-15 PERCENT CHANCE OF GALES AT ANY ONE TIME...BUT THE GEFS SHOWS UP TO AN 80 PERCENT CHANCE OF GALES IN THE N CENTRAL GULF 06Z-12Z THU. THE ECMWF SHOWS GALES HERE AHEAD OF THE FRONT FROM 09Z TO 15Z. GALE CONDITIONS WILL BE FORECAST HERE AS WELL AS IN THE SW GULF AROUND 00Z-06Z THU AS ALL OF THE MODELS MENTIONED NOW SHOW GALE THERE DURING THAT TIME. THE GFS APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER BY PUTTING S-SE GALES IN THE NE GULF SAT MORNING. BELIEVE THIS IS GRID-SCALE FEEDBACK. THE 06Z NWPS SHOULD REFLECT THIS PREFERRED WIND FIELD. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: 00Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WIND FORECAST. 06Z NWPS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WAVE FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE. THERE CONTINUES TO BE GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE GLOBAL MODELS ON THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE PATTERN N OF THE AREA...ALONG WITH THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE UNTIL FRI. THE 00Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF ARE SLIGHTLY WEAK WITH THE WINDS IN THE NW CARIBBEAN AND THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE COMPARED TO ASCAT. ADJUSTMENTS WILL BE MADE TO MATCH THE OBSERVATIONS INITIALLY AND TO THE WAVE FIELD IN THESE LOCATIONS WHICH IS LOW COMPARED TO OBSERVATIONS. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE FORECAST TO SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE NE CARIBBEAN TODAY AS THE FRONT PASSES E THROUGH THE AREA. THE 00Z GFS SOLUTION WAS PREFERRED FOR ADJUSTING THE WIND GRIDS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AS IT GENERALLY DOES BETTER BY BEING STRONGER. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA EARLY THU AND FRI MORNINGS AS A RESULT. THE 06Z NWPS WILL BE USED TO ADJUST SEAS THROUGH THU NIGHT. BY FRI...THE NWPS WAS FASTER TO SUBSIDE THE SEAS AS THE WINDS BEGIN TO WEAKEN. IT APPEARS TO DO SO MORE QUICKLY THAN EXPECTED...SO THE MWW3/EC WAVE WAS USED TO KEEP THE SEAS UP IN THE LONG-FETCH EASTERLY SWELL. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: 00Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WIND FORECAST. 06Z NWPS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WAVE FORECAST. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. THE MODELS AGREE TO CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY THE LONG-WAVE PATTERN HERE...WITH TROUGHING BUILDING OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC AND RIDGING OVER THE SW N ATLC...TODAY THROUGH THU. NE TRADE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO A FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE OVER WATERS PRIMARILY S OF 25N TODAY THROUGH THU NIGHT. THE MODELS ARE REASONABLY SIMILAR WITH THIS PATTERN. DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO ARISE BY FRI WHEN THE HIGH PRES BEGINS TO WEAKEN AS A FRONT PASSES TO ITS N. THE GEFS AND EC ENS MEANS PREFER A MORE SOUTHERLY SOLUTION WITH THIS FRONT AND WEAKEN THE LOW FASTER LIKE THE 00Z ECMWF AS OPPOSED TO THE GFS. AS STATED IN THE GULF OF MEXICO SECTION...THE GFS BECOMES AN OUTLIER WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE WINDS IN THE NE GULF...LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH GRID-SCALE FEEDBACK...SAT MORNING. THIS ALSO CAUSES THE GFS TO BE STRONG WITH WINDS IN NW WATERS LATE SAT. THIS OUTLIER SOLUTION IS NOT PREFERRED. THE FORECAST LEANS MORE TOWARD THE ECMWF ON FRI AND SAT AS A RESULT. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ011...NW GULF INCLUDING STETSON BANK... GALE WARNING TONIGHT INTO WED. .GMZ013...N CENTRAL GULF INCLUDING FLOWER GARDEN BANKS MARINE SANCTUARY... GALE WARNING TONIGHT INTO THU. .GMZ017...W CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N W OF 94W... GALE WARNING TONIGHT INTO WED. .GMZ019...CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N BETWEEN 87W AND 94W... GALE WARNING TONIGHT INTO WED NIGHT. .GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... GALE WARNING WED NIGHT. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WED NIGHT. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... GALE WARNING WED NIGHT. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WED NIGHT INTO FRI. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER SCHAUER. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.