000 AGXX40 KNHC 071823 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 123 PM EST MON MAR 7 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: 12Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WIND FORECAST. 12Z MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WAVE FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUE NIGHT THEN MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE BEEN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THE PAST FEW DAYS REGARDING AN INCREASINGLY MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN OVER THE GULF WITH RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE EAST GULF AND FLORIDA PENINSULA AND TROUGHING DEVELOPING OVER THE W GULF AND INLAND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MEXICO THROUGH THU. AT THE SURFACE...THE PRES GRADIENT WILL STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT INTO TUE BETWEEN PERSISTENT RIDGING ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF AND TROUGHING THAT WILL BE SLOW TO SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS THE W AND CENTRAL PORTION OF THE BASIN EARLY WED THROUGH THU. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITHIN THE FRESH TO NEAR GALE S-SE RETURN FLOW ON WHETHER SE WINDS WILL REACH GALE FORCE LATE TUE NIGHT INTO LATE THU NIGHT AS A FRONT AND ASSOCIATED VORT MAX/SURFACE LOW CENTERS ROTATE AROUND THE PARENT MID-LEVEL LOW AND SURFACE LOW CENTERED OVER INLAND TEXAS. THE 12Z GFS SHOWS GALE WARNINGS IN THE RETURN FLOW WED AT 06-12Z AS WELL AS THU AT 12Z. THE 00Z ECMWF AND 12Z UKMET DIMINISH THE WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT MORE THAN THE GFS BY THU NIGHT. HOWEVER...THEY BOTH AGREE ON GALE WARNINGS AROUND 06Z THU AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE W GULF. THE 00Z GEFS SHOWS THE BEST CHANCE OF GALE WARNINGS AT 06-12Z WED...AROUND 30-40 PERCENT. THE SREF SHOWS THE BEST CHANCE OF GALE WARNINGS AT 12Z WED...AROUND 10-15 PERCENT...WITH SEVERAL 10-15 PERCENT CHANCE AREAS DOTTING THE NW GULF AROUND 09Z THU. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE DETAILS WITH THE SHORTWAVES ROTATING INTO THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND HOW THEY WILL IMPACT THE SURFACE WINDS. THE BEST AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE DETERMINISTIC RUNS AND THE ENSEMBLES ON GALE WARNINGS SEEMS TO BE FOR EARLY THU MORNING...BUT CONFIDENCE IS STILL TOO LOW TO EXPLICITLY CALL FOR GALE WARNINGS IN ANY ONE PLACE. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: 12Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WIND FORECAST. 12Z MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WAVE FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE. THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE GLOBAL MODELS ON THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE PATTERN N OF THE AREA...ALONG WITH THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT IS CURRENTLY BUILDING INTO THE SW N ATLC REGION THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE 12Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF AGREE ON INCREASING THE TRADE WINDS IN THE LEE OF CUBA AND THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TODAY AND ACROSS MUCH OF THE NE CARIBBEAN TONIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT PASSES NORTH AND EAST OF HISPANIOLA. A RECENT 07/1430 UTC ASCAT PASS ACROSS CUBA AND THE ADJACENT CARIBBEAN WATERS INDICATED NE WINDS REACHING A 23-26 KT RANGE IN THE LEE OF CUBA. A FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE IS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE N CARIBBEAN AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BUILDS BETWEEN RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE SW N ATLC AND INCREASED TROUGHING OVER THE W GULF OF MEXICO. THE 12Z GFS SOLUTION WAS PREFERRED FOR ADJUSTING THE WIND GRIDS AS IT GENERALLY PERFORMS BETTER BY BEING STRONGER WITH THE FUNNELING WINDS IN THE N CARIBBEAN. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA EARLY THU AND FRI MORNINGS AS A RESULT. THE 12Z MWW3 WAS USED TO MAINTAIN THE SEAS IN THE LONG-FETCH EASTERLY SWELL AREAS. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: 12Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WIND FORECAST. 12Z MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WAVE FORECAST. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. THE MODELS AGREE ON THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE LONG-WAVE PATTERN WITH TROUGHING BUILDING OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC TODAY AND TUE... LEAVING A RIDGE IN ITS WAKE THAT WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE SW N ATLC TODAY THROUGH THU. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT IS MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN WATERS EXTENDING FROM 26N65W TO THE ENTRANCE TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. ALREADY...GIVEN AN EARLY MORNING ASCAT PASS FROM 07/1336 UTC...NW TO N WINDS ARE REACHING 20 TO 30 KT BEHIND THE FRONT E OF 68W. AS THE FRONT SWEEPS SE OF THE AREA TONIGHT...WINDS ACROSS THE NE ZONES WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO FRESH LEVELS. NE TRADE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO A FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE OVER WATERS PRIMARILY S OF 25N TUE THROUGH THU NIGHT. THE 12Z GFS IS CLOSER TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS WITH THE LOW PRES SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE CENTRAL ATLC AND THE RESULTING PRES GRADIENT OVER THE NE WATERS AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGING SETTLES IN... STRETCHES E-SE...AND WEAKENS SLIGHTLY FRI INTO FRI NIGHT. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER HUFFMAN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.