000 AGXX40 KNHC 070727 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 227 AM EST MON MAR 7 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: 00Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WIND FORECAST THROUGH TUE WITH 00Z ECMWF ADDED TUE NIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT. 00Z NWPS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WAVE FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUE NIGHT THEN MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. THE MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON AN INCREASINGLY MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN OVER THE GULF....WITH RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE E GULF AND TROUGHING OVER THE W GULF THROUGH THU. AT THE SURFACE...A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT WILL BUILD BETWEEN PERSISTENT RIDGING OVER THE E GULF AND TROUGHING SLOWLY SPREADING E ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH S-SE RETURN FLOW EXPECTED TO REACH NEAR GALE FORCE LATE TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI. THE 00Z GFS SHOWS GALES IN THE RETURN FLOW WED AT 06Z AND 18Z AS WELL AS THU AT 18Z AND FRI AT 00Z. THE 00Z ECMWF AND UKMET DIMINISH THE WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT MORE THAN THE GFS BY THU NIGHT. HOWEVER...THE BOTH AGREE ON GALES AT 06Z THU AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE W GULF. THE 00Z GEFS SHOWS THE BEST CHANCE OF GALES AT 06Z WED...AROUND 30-40 PERCENT. THE SREF SHOWS THE BEST CHANCE OF GALES AT 12Z WED...AROUND 15-20 PERCENT...WITH A 10-15 PERCENT CHANCE AROUND 09Z THU. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE DETAILS WITH THE SHORTWAVES ROTATING INTO THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH HERE AND HOW THEY WILL IMPACT THE SURFACE WINDS. THE BEST AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE DETERMINISTIC RUNS AND THE ENSEMBLES ON GALES SEEMS TO BE FOR EARLY THU MORNING...BUT CONFIDENCE IS STILL TOO LOW TO EXPLICITLY CALL FOR GALES IN ANY ONE PLACE. TO ACCOUNT FOR SOME OF THE UNCERTAINTY...THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF WERE BLENDED EQUALLY WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FROM TUE NIGHT ONWARD. THE NWPS SOLUTION SEEMS REASONABLE FOR ADJUSTING THE GRIDS. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: 00Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WIND FORECAST. 00Z NWPS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WAVE FORECAST THROUGH THU THEN THE MWW3 BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL THU NIGHT ONWARD. HIGH CONFIDENCE. THERE IS UNUSUALLY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE GLOBAL MODELS ON THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE PATTERN N OF THE AREA...ALONG WITH THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE 00Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF AGREE ON INCREASING THE TRADE WINDS IN THE LEE OF CUBA AND THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TODAY AND ACROSS MUCH OF THE NE CARIBBEAN TONIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT AS THE FRONTS N OF THE AREA MERGE. A FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE IS EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF THE N CARIBBEAN AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BUILDS BETWEEN RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE SW N ATLC AND INCREASED TROUGHING OVER THE W GULF OF MEXICO. THE 00Z GFS SOLUTION WAS PREFERRED FOR ADJUSTING THE WIND GRIDS AS IT GENERALLY DOES BETTER BY BEING STRONGER WITH THE FUNNELING WINDS IN THE N CARIBBEAN. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA EARLY THU AND FRI MORNINGS AS A RESULT. THE 00Z NWPS WAS USED TO ADJUST SEAS THROUGH WED. BY THU NIGHT...THE NWPS WAS FASTER TO SUBSIDE THE SEAS AS THE WINDS BEGIN TO WEAKEN. IT APPEARS TO DO SO MORE QUICKLY THAN EXPECTED...SO THE MWW3 WAS USED TO KEEP THE SEAS UP IN THE LONG-FETCH EASTERLY SWELL. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: 00Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WIND FORECAST THROUGH WED WITH 00Z ECMWF ADDED WED NIGHT ONWARD. 00Z NWPS/EC WAVE BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WAVE FORECAST. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. THE MODELS AGREE ON THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE LONG-WAVE PATTERN WITH TROUGHING BUILDING OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC TODAY AND TUE...LEAVING A RIDGE IN ITS WAKE THAT WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE SW N ATLC TODAY THROUGH THU. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT IS QUICKLY MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH EASTERN WATERS TOWARD THE STATIONARY FRONT STRETCHED FROM 27N65W TO THE NE TIP OF CUBA. THIS WILL INVIGORATE THE LEAD FRONT AND ALLOW IT TO SWEEP SE OF THE AREA TONIGHT. NE TRADE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO A FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE OVER WATERS PRIMARILY S OF 25N TUE THROUGH THU NIGHT. THE 00Z GFS IS CLOSER TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS WITH THE LOW PRES SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE CENTRAL ATLC AND THE RESULTING PRES GRADIENT OVER NE WATERS. THE GFS IS PREFERRED OVER THE ECMWF WITH THE SURFACE PATTERN...INCLUDING THE STRENGTH AND POSITION OF THE DRIVING HIGH PRES...THROUGH WED. AFTER WED...THE CENTRAL ATLC LOW MOVES WELL AWAY FROM THE AREA AND THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH PRES OVER THE SW N ATLC AND THE LOW PRES IN THE GULF OF MEXICO BECOMES MORE OF A DRIVING FACTOR FOR THE WINDS. A GFS/ECMWF BLEND IS PREFERRED IN THE GULF BY THIS TIME...SO IT MAKES SENSE TO APPLY THAT THINKING HERE AS WELL. THE SLIGHTLY HIGHER SEAS SEEN IN THE 00Z NWPS COMPARED TO THE 00Z MWW3 SEEMED TO MATCH THE WIND FIELD WELL THROUGH WED NIGHT. BY FRI...THE NWPS WAS AN OUTLIER BY CARRYING LARGE NW SWELL INTO NE WATERS AND JUST E OF THE AREA THAN THE MWW3 OR EC WAVE. BY THIS TIME...THE EC WAVE WAS USED TO ADJUST THE WAVES. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WED NIGHT INTO FRI. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER SCHAUER. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.