000 AGXX40 KNHC 061854 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 154 PM EST SUN MAR 6 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: 12Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WIND FORECAST. 12Z NWPS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WAVE FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUE NIGHT THEN MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. THE MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON AN INCREASINGLY MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN OVER THE GULF BEGINNING TONIGHT WHEN NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY CURRENTLY OFFSHORE OF GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS DIVES SE...AMPLIFYING BROAD TROUGHING OVER THE SW N ATLC TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THE MID-LEVEL ENERGY WILL SHIFT INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC BY MON MORNING INTO TUE...LEAVING A RIDGE IN ITS WAKE THAT WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE E GULF MON THROUGH THU WHILE AN UPPER LOW BUILDS TROUGHING OVER TEXAS AND THE W GULF. AT THE SURFACE... THE RIDGE INFLUENCING THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS AND COAST WILL SHIFT SLOWLY E TONIGHT THROUGH MON NIGHT. A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT WILL BUILD BETWEEN THIS RIDGING AND THE DEVELOPING TROUGHING OVER TEXAS TONIGHT THROUGH SUNRISE TUE...WITH S-SE RETURN FLOW EXPECTED TO REACH TO NEAR GALE FORCE LATE TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED MORNING. THE GLOBAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLES HAVE BACKED OFF SLIGHTLY ON THE POSSIBILITY OF WINDS REACHING GALE FORCE HERE AND AS A RESULT...OVERALL CONFIDENCE WANES IN THE FORECAST WITH THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST WED MORNING. THE 12Z GFS REMAINS THE SLOWER SOLUTION WITH THE 12Z UKMET AND 00Z/06 ECMWF LATER WED INTO WED NIGHT. THE GFS SEEMS REASONABLE FOR BLENDING PURPOSES...BUT UNCERTAINTY INCREASES WED AND THU. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: 12Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WIND FORECAST. 12Z NWPS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WAVE FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE. THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE GLOBAL MODELS ON THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE PATTERN N OF THE AREA...ALONG WITH THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE 12Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF AGREE ON INCREASING THE TRADE WINDS IN THE LEE OF CUBA AND THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE MON AND ACROSS MUCH OF THE NE CARIBBEAN MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT. A FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE IS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE N CARIBBEAN AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BUILDS BETWEEN RIDGING INFLUENCING THE SW N ATLC AND INCREASED TROUGHING ACROSS THE W GULF OF MEXICO. THE 12Z GFS SOLUTION WAS USED FOR ADJUSTING THE WIND GRIDS AND THE 12Z NWPS WAS USED TO ADJUST SEAS. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: 12Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WIND FORECAST. 12Z NWPS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WAVE FORECAST. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. THE MODELS AGREE ON THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE LONG-WAVE PATTERN BEGINNING TONIGHT WHEN NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY CURRENTLY OFFSHORE OF GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS DIVES SE... AMPLIFYING THE TROUGHING OVER THE SW N ATLC AND SHIFTING INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC MON AND TUE. BY TUE...A RIDGE IN ITS WAKE WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE SW N ATLC TONIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT. THE 06Z GEFS HAS BACKED OFF SLIGHTLY OF INDICATING GALE FORCE WINDS IN NE WATERS MON WHICH SHIFTS E OF 65W BY MON NIGHT. THE GFS IS THE STRONGEST SOLUTION WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE DEVELOPING LOW PRES OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC AT THIS TIME...BUT IT DOES NOT APPEAR OUT OF LINE CONSIDERING THE GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE RAPID AMPLIFICATION OF THE PATTERN. THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWED GALE WARNINGS JUST EAST OF THE NORTHEASTERN OFFSHORE ZONE AND WILL MAINTAIN WARNING IN THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST. ELSEWHERE...NE TRADE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO A FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE ACROSS WATERS PRIMARILY S OF 25N MON THROUGH EARLY THU. THE GFS CARRIES A LARGER AREA OF STRONG TRADE WINDS THAN THE 00Z ECMWF. THE GFS IS PREFERRED OVER THE ECMWF WITH THE SURFACE PATTERN...INCLUDING THE STRENGTH AND POSITION OF THE DRIVING HIGH PRES. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WED NIGHT. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THU NIGHT. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER HUFFMAN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.