000 AGXX40 KNHC 060651 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 151 AM EST SUN MAR 6 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: 00Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WIND FORECAST. 06Z NWPS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WAVE FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUE NIGHT THEN MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. THE MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON AN INCREASINGLY MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN OVER THE GULF BEGINNING TONIGHT WHEN NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY CURRENTLY OVER GEORGIA DIVES SE...AMPLIFYING THE TROUGHING OVER THE SW N ATLC SUN WHICH SHIFTS INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC MON AND TUE...LEAVING A RIDGE IN ITS WAKE THAT WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE E GULF MON THROUGH THU WHILE AN UPPER LOW BUILDS TROUGHING OVER TEXAS AND THE W GULF. AT THE SURFACE...THE RIDGE ALONG THE N CENTRAL GULF COAST WILL STRENGTHEN TODAY AND SHIFT E TONIGHT AND MON. A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT WILL BUILD BETWEEN THIS RIDGING AND THE DEVELOPING TROUGHING OVER TEXAS SUN NIGHT THROUGH TUE...WITH S-SE RETURN FLOW EXPECTED TO REACH NEAR GALE FORCE LATE TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED MORNING. THE GLOBAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLES HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE POSSIBILITY OF WINDS REACHING GALE FORCE HERE...BUT THE 00Z ECMWF AND 00Z UKMET SHOW GALES IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT EARLY THU. CONFIDENCE WANES IN THE FORECAST WITH THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE 00Z GFS IS SLOWER TO MOVE THE FRONT INTO THE GULF THAN THE 00Z UKMET AND 12Z/05 ECMWF LATE WED/EARLY THU. THE NEW 00Z ECMWF HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY SLOWER MOVING THE FRONT OFFSHORE AND STRONGER WITH THE WINDS BEHIND IT...MORE LIKE THE GFS SOLUTION. WILL HOLD OFF ON FORECASTING GALES LIKE THE ECMWF AND UKMET SHOW EARLY THU. THE GFS SEEMS REASONABLE FOR ADJUSTING THE GRIDS...BUT UNCERTAINTY INCREASES WED AND THU. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: 00Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WIND FORECAST. 06Z NWPS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WAVE FORECAST THROUGH WED AND 00Z MWW3 BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL WED NIGHT AND THU. HIGH CONFIDENCE. THERE IS UNUSUALLY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE GLOBAL MODELS ON THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE PATTERN N OF THE AREA...ALONG WITH THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE 00Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF AGREE ON INCREASING THE TRADE WINDS IN THE LEE OF CUBA AND THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE MON AND ACROSS MUCH OF THE NE CARIBBEAN MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT. A FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE IS EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF THE N CARIBBEAN AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BUILDS BETWEEN RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE SW N ATLC AND INCREASED TROUGHING OVER THE W GULF OF MEXICO. THE 00Z GFS SOLUTION WAS PREFERRED FOR ADJUSTING THE WIND GRIDS AS IT GENERALLY DOES BETTER BY BEING STRONGER WITH THE FUNNELING WINDS IN THE N CARIBBEAN. THE 00Z NWPS WAS USED TO ADJUST SEAS THROUGH WED. BY WED NIGHT...THE NWPS WAS FASTER TO SUBSIDE THE SEAS AS THE WINDS BEGIN TO WEAKEN. IT APPEARS TO DO SO MORE QUICKLY THAN EXPECTED...SO THE MWW3 WAS USED TO KEEP THE SEAS UP IN THE LONG- FETCH EASTERLY SWELL. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: 00Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WIND FORECAST. 06Z NWPS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WAVE FORECAST. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. THE MODELS AGREE ON THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE LONG-WAVE PATTERN BEGINNING TONIGHT WHEN NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY CURRENTLY OVER GEORGIA DIVES SE...AMPLIFYING THE TROUGHING OVER THE SW N ATLC SUN AND SHIFTING INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC MON AND TUE...LEAVING A RIDGE IN ITS WAKE THAT WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE SW N ATLC SUN NIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT. THE 00Z GEFS SHOWS A CHANCE OF GALE FORCE WINDS IN NE WATERS MON WHICH SHIFTS E OF 65W BY MON NIGHT. THE GFS IS THE STRONGEST SOLUTION WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE DEVELOPING LOW PRES OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC AT THIS TIME...BUT IT DOES NOT APPEAR OUT OF LINE CONSIDERING THE GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE RAPID AMPLIFICATION OF THE PATTERN. THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWED GALES HERE. DO NOT SEE A GOOD REASON TO SIGNIFICANTLY ALTER THAT FORECAST. ELSEWHERE...NE TRADE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO A FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE OVER WATERS PRIMARILY S OF 25N MON THROUGH EARLY THU. THE GFS CARRIES A LARGER AREA OF STRONG TRADE WINDS THAN THE 00Z ECMWF. THE GFS IS PREFERRED OVER THE ECMWF WITH THE SURFACE PATTERN...INCLUDING THE STRENGTH AND POSITION OF THE DRIVING HIGH PRES. THE SLIGHTLY HIGHER SEAS SEEN IN THE 06Z NWPS COMPARED TO THE 00Z MWW3 SEEMED TO MATCH THE WIND FIELD WELL. USED THE NWPS TO ADJUST THE SEAS. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WED NIGHT INTO THU NIGHT. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER SCHAUER. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.