000 AGXX40 KNHC 051844 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 144 PM EST SAT MAR 5 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: 12Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WIND FORECAST. 12Z WW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WAVE FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUE NIGHT THEN MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. THE MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE PATTERN ACROSS THE GULF BEGINNING TONIGHT WHEN NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY...CURRENTLY OVER THE MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...CONTINUES TO DIVE SE THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND THE CAROLINAS...AMPLIFYING THE TROUGHING OVER THE SW N ATLC SUN AND SHIFTING INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC MON AND TUE...LEAVING A RIDGE IN ITS WAKE THAT WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE E GULF MON AND TUE WHILE A NEW TROUGH BUILDS OVER TEXAS. AT THE SURFACE...THE RIDGE WILL BUILD ALONG THE N CENTRAL GULF COAST TODAY THROUGH SUN AND SHIFT E SUN NIGHT AND MON. A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT WILL BUILD BETWEEN THIS RIDGING AND THE DEVELOPING TROUGHING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. PLAINS SUN NIGHT THROUGH TUE...WITH S-SE RETURN FLOW EXPECTED TO REACH NEAR GALE FORCE LATE TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED MORNING. THE LATEST COUPLE OF GFS RUNS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH TUE NIGHT. THEREAFTER WED INTO WED NIGHT...THE FRONT MAKES LITTLE PROGRESSION EAST OF 90W DUE TO THE STRONG HIGH TO THE EAST AND THE ASSOCIATED STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: 12Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WIND FORECAST. 12Z WW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WAVE FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE 1422Z ASCAT PASS SHOWED 20-25 KT TRADE WINDS WITHIN 90-120 NM OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. THE 12Z GFS CONTINUES TO BETTER REPRESENT THE CURRENT CONDITIONS IN THIS AREA WITH THE ECMWF INDICATING WEAKER WINDS THEREFORE MORE WEIGHT WAS GIVEN TO THE LATEST GFS SOLUTION. BOTH MODELS HOWEVER AGREE ON INCREASING THE TRADE WINDS IN THE LEE OF CUBA AND THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE MON AND ACROSS MUCH OF THE NE CARIBBEAN MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT. FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE IS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE N CARIBBEAN AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS BETWEEN RIDGING ACROSS THE SW N ATLC AND INCREASED TROUGHING ACROSS TEXAS AND THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. AS STATED ABOVE...THE MODELS ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN. THE 12Z GFS SOLUTION WAS PREFERRED FOR ADJUSTING THE WIND GRIDS. THE 12Z WW3 USED TO ADJUST SEAS. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: 12Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WIND FORECAST. 12Z WW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WAVE FORECAST. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. THE 1416Z ASCAT PASS SHOWED STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE MOVED EAST OF THE FAR NE OFFSHORE WATERS WITH THE COLD FRONT DRAPED FROM 29N65W SW TO THE SE BAHAMAS AND THEN WEAKENING ACROSS WESTERN CUBA. MODERATE TO FRESH N-NE WINDS PREVAIL NW OF THE FRONT WITH SEAS RANGING 3 TO 6 FT S OF 28N AND W OF 77W...AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER 6 TO 9 FT SEAS N OF 28N E OF 76W. THE MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE LONG-WAVE PATTERN BEGINNING SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING WHEN NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVES SE THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND THE CAROLINAS...AMPLIFYING THE TROUGHING OVER THE SW N ATLC SUN AND SHIFTING INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC MON AND TUE. AS THE TROUGHING SHIFTS EAST...A RIDGE IN ITS WAKE WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE SW N ATLC SUN NIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...AS THE COLD FRONT WEAKENS AND BECOMES STATIONARY THROUGH MON...A REINFORCING COLD FRONT...SUPPORTED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE ENERGY...WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC SUN THROUGH TUE BRINGING FRESH TO STRONG NW TO N WINDS FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHERN ZONES...IN ADDITION TO THE ADJACENT NORTHERN WATERS OFF THE COAST OF CUBA. UPDATED GRIDS...WITH STRONGER WEIGHT ON THE LATEST GFS SOLUTION...INTRODUCES NEAR GALE TO GALE FORCE WINDS EAST OF ZONE AMZ115 WITH FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THAT ZONE REACHING 30 KT MON AND MON NIGHT. AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT...THE AREA OF STRONGEST WINDS WILL MOVE E OF THE AREA WITH PRES GRADIENT WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT REMAINING ALONG COASTAL CUBA...APPROACHES TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...AND PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA STRAITS TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER HUFFMAN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.