000 AGXX40 KNHC 050631 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 131 AM EST SAT MAR 5 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: 00Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WIND FORECAST. 00Z NWPS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WAVE FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUE NIGHT THEN MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. THE MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE PATTERN OVER THE GULF BEGINNING TONIGHT WHEN NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVES SE THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND THE CAROLINAS...AMPLIFYING THE TROUGHING OVER THE SW N ATLC SUN AND SHIFTING INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC MON AND TUE...LEAVING A RIDGE IN ITS WAKE THAT WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE E GULF MON AND TUE WHILE A NEW TROUGH BUILDS OVER TEXAS. AT THE SURFACE...THE RIDGE WILL BUILD ALONG THE N CENTRAL GULF COAST TODAY THROUGH SUN AND SHIFT E SUN NIGHT AND MON. A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT WILL BUILD BETWEEN THIS RIDGING AND THE DEVELOPING TROUGHING OVER TEXAS SUN NIGHT THROUGH TUE...WITH S-SE RETURN FLOW EXPECTED TO REACH NEAR GALE FORCE LATE TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED MORNING. THE 00Z GFS AND 12Z/04 ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OVER THE GULF THROUGH TUE NIGHT. THE ECMWF IS FASTER THAN THE GFS TO CARRY THE FRONT INTO THE W GULF WED. THE UKMET SIDES WITH THE ECMWF...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z/04 ECMWF WANES IN THE LONG-WAVE PATTERN A BIT BY WED. SEE THE SW N ATLC SECTION FOR DETAILS. FOR NOW...WILL SIDE WITH THE SLOWER GFS SOLUTION. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: 00Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WIND FORECAST. 00Z NWPS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WAVE FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE 0242Z ASCAT PASS SHOWED 20-25 KT TRADE WINDS WITHIN 90-120 NM OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. BOTH THE 00Z GFS AND 12Z/04 ECMWF APPEAR LIGHT WITH THE WINDS HERE COMPARED TO OBSERVATIONS...SO ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO FIT THE CURRENT CONDITIONS. BOTH MODELS AGREE ON INCREASING THE TRADE WINDS IN THE LEE OF CUBA AND THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE MON AND ACROSS MUCH OF THE NE CARIBBEAN MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT. FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE IS EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF THE N CARIBBEAN AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BUILDS BETWEEN RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE SW N ATLC AND INCREASED TROUGHING OVER TEXAS AND THE W GULF OF MEXICO. AS STATED ABOVE...THE MODELS ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN. THE 00Z GFS SOLUTION WAS PREFERRED FOR ADJUSTING THE WIND GRIDS. THE 00Z NWPS WAS USED TO ADJUST SEAS. BY MON...THE NWPS BUILT SEAS HIGHER UNDER THE FRESH TO STRONG WINDS THAN THE MWW3 AND WAS CLOSER TO THE EC WAVE. THESE HIGHER SEAS SEEM REASONABLE GIVEN THE DURATION AND THE LONG FETCH OF THE WINDS. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: 00Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WIND FORECAST. 00Z NWPS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WAVE FORECAST. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. THE 0152Z ASCAT-A PASS SHOWED STRONG S WINDS OVER NE WATERS N OF 29N AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT FROM 31N67W TO NEAR FORT LAUDERDALE FLORIDA. THE UKMET WAS THE STRONGEST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS WITH THE WIND HERE AND CLOSEST TO THE OBSERVATIONS. THE GFS BLEND USED FOR THE GRIDS HAD TO BE ADJUSTED STRONGER TO MATCH THE INITIAL CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE...THE MODELS AGREE ON THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE LONG-WAVE PATTERN BEGINNING SAT NIGHT WHEN NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVES SE THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND THE CAROLINAS...AMPLIFYING THE TROUGHING OVER THE SW N ATLC SUN AND SHIFTING INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC MON AND TUE...LEAVING A RIDGE IN ITS WAKE THAT WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE SW N ATLC SUN NIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT. THE 12Z/04 ECMWF BECOMES AN OUTLIER WITH ITS SLOW SOLUTION WITH THE TROUGH/LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC MON NIGHT ONWARD. AT THE SURFACE...THIS MEANS THE ECMWF CARRIES A TIGHTER PRES GRADIENT OVER E WATERS AND A LARGER AREA OF STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS MON NIGHT INTO WED THAN THE OTHER MODELS. AT THE SAME TIME...NE TRADE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO A FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE OVER WATERS PRIMARILY S OF 24N. THE GFS CARRIES A LARGER AREA OF STRONG TRADE WINDS TUE AND WED THAN THE 12Z/04 ECMWF. THE GFS IS PREFERRED OVER THE ECMWF WITH THE SURFACE PATTERN...INCLUDING THE STRENGTH AND POSITION OF THE DRIVING HIGH PRES. THE WIND GRIDS WERE ADJUSTED TOWARD THE GFS WHICH IS CLOSER TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS. THE SLIGHTLY HIGHER SEAS SEEN IN THE 00Z NWPS COMPARED TO THE 00Z MWW3 SEEMED TO MATCH THE WIND FIELD WELL. USED THE NWPS TO ADJUST THE SEAS. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER SCHAUER. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.