000 AGXX40 KNHC 041925 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 225 PM EST FRI MAR 4 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS COLD FRONT HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE SSE ACROSS THE BASIN TODAY... CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM FT MEYERS AREA TO UPPER MEXICAN COAST...WHERE IT SHOULD BEGIN TO STALL SHORTLY. FRESH WINDS N OF FRONT VEERING QUICKLY AND SEAS LIKELY PEAKING 5-6 FT ACROSS W PORTIONS BEHIND FRONT. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN FRONT HANGING ACROSS UPPER MEXICAN COAST WHILE MOVING S AND SETTLING ACROSS STRAITS OF FL BY SAT EVENING...POSSIBLY ALONG THE NW COAST OF CUBA. AMPLIFYING UPPER PATTERN OVER THE GULF THEN EXPECTED SAT NIGHT WHEN NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVES SE THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND THE CAROLINAS...AMPLIFYING THE TROUGHING OVER THE SW N ATLC SUN AND SHIFTING INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC MON AND TUE. THIS TO LEAVE A STRONG RIDGE IN ITS WAKE THAT WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE E GULF MON AND TUE WHILE A NEW TROUGH BUILDS OVER TEXAS. AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE WILL BUILD ALONG THE N CENTRAL GULF COAST BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT THROUGH SUN BEFORE SHIFTING E SUN NIGHT AND MON. A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT WILL BUILD BETWEEN THIS RIDGING AND THE DEVELOPING TROUGHING OVER TEXAS SUN NIGHT THROUGH TUE...WITH S-SE RETURN FLOW EXPECTED TO REACH AT OR JUST BELOW GALE FORCE TUE NIGHT...WITH ECMWF SUGGESTING BROAD AREA OF NEAR GALES COVERING MUCH OF N AND CENTRAL GULF. MODEST DIFFERENCES IN LATEST GFS AND ECMWF HERE. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS FAIR WEATHER PATTERN PREVAILS ACROSS THE BASIN AND INTO TROPICAL N ATLC ATTM WITH MODERATE TRADES MOST OF BASIN...SAVE FOR STRONG WINDS STILL OFF OF COLOMBIA...AND LIGHT NE TO E WINDS NW PART. BUOYS SHOWING 4-6 FT NE THROUGH CENTRAL CARIB. MODELS AGREE ON TRANQUIL CONDITIONS THROUGH SUN AS PRES GRADIENT WEAKENS EVEN FURTHER ACROSS THE BASIN...THEN AS STRONG RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS GULFMEX AND INTO WRN ATLC LATE SUN-MON...INCREASING TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE BY MON NIGHT AND ACROSS MUCH OF THE N CARIBBEAN BY TUE NIGHT...REACHING A FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. STRONG FLOW ACROSS N PORTIONS TUE WILL SPREAD INTO CENTRAL AND S CENTRAL PORTIONS WED AS HIGH SHIFTS ESE INTO SW N ATLC AND ASSOCIATED FRONT MOVES ACROSS NE CARIB. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS GALE WARNING WILL EXPIRE ACROSS NRN PORTIONS E OF FRONT AT 18Z WITH NO CONFIRMATION OF CONDITIONS THIS MORNING. 14-15Z ASCAT PASSES JUST MISSED AREA WHERE GALES WERE EXPECTED...AND SHOWED 20-25 KT WINDS W OF FRONT AND STORM FORCE WINDS OFF OF HATTERAS. BUOY 41002 BRIEFLY ROSE TO 33 KT BUT NOT GALES AND IS JUST OUT OF OUR AREA. 1222Z ALTIMETER PASS ACROSS THIS SAME AREA SHOWED SEAS 2-3 FT ABOVE WW3 GUIDANCE IN THE NW FLOW BEHIND FRONT. CURRENT VIZ IMAGERY SUGGESTS FRONT NOW FROM ABOUT 31N73W TO LAKE OKEECHOBEE. WEAKENING RIDGE TO THE E PRODUCING MODERATE SE TO S FLOW ELSEWHERE E OF 70W AND LIGHT TO MODERATE S TO SW ACROSS THE BAHAMAS. 12Z GFS RUN NOW KEEPING THESE SW GALES N OF 30N AND MORE IN LINE WITH ECMWF. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN FRONTAL PROGRESSION AND SECONDARY FRONTAL DEVELOPMENT NEXT FEW DAYS. AFTER SUPPORTING LOW LIFTS OUT TO THE NE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND STRONG SLY FLOW AHEAD OF IT EXITS THE FA BY 12Z SAT...FRONT EXPECTED TO STALL INVOF 30N60W TO FL KEYS SAT NIGHT. MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW EXPECTED BEHIND FRONT BUT WITH STRONG NNW SWELL GENERATED FROM DEEP LOW WITH STORM TO HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ACROSS WRN PORTIONS WILL SEND N TO NE SWELL INTO AREA SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT. THERE HAS BEEN QUITE A SPREAD IN GWES OUTPUT WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH RECENT WW3 TRENDING TOWARDS HIGHEST MEMBERS OF GWES. MODELS ALSO ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON SECONDARY SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVING SE THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND THE CAROLINAS...AMPLIFYING THE TROUGHING OVER THE SW N ATLC SUN AND SHIFTING INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC MON AND TUE...LEAVING A RIDGE IN ITS WAKE THAT WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE SW N ATLC SUN NIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT. FRESH TO STRONG N WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER NE WATERS BY MON AS SURFACE TROUGHING OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC BUTTS UP AGAINST THE GROWING RIDGE OVER THE W PORTION. AT THE SAME TIME...NE TRADE WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE TO A FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE OVER WATERS PRIMARILY S OF 24N. MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE TUE WITH SFC LOW MOVING ENE INTO CENTRAL ATLC WITH ECMWF SHOWING MORE LLVL VORT ROTATING SE ACROSS WRN SEMICIRCLE OF LOW AND MORE EXTENDING FETCH TOWARD THE S RESULTING IN SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE IN WAVE GROWTH AND SWELL MOVING INTO THE AREA MID NEXT WEEK. WILL HAVE TO USE MORE NWPS AT END OF FORECAST PERIOD TO REFLECT BLENDED WIND FIELDS. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.