000 AGXX40 KNHC 040643 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 143 AM EST FRI MAR 4 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: 00Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WIND FORECAST. 00Z NWPS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WAVE FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS HAVE SHOWN FRESH TO STRONG SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE NE GULF OF MEXICO. THE 00Z GFS IS STRONGER THAN THE 12Z/03 ECMWF WITH THE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT AND APPEARS TO BE CLOSER TO THE OBSERVATIONS. IT IS PREFERRED WITH THE FORECAST FOR THIS FAST MOVING FRONT WHICH IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT E OF THE AREA FRI NIGHT. OTHERWISE...THE MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE PATTERN OVER THE GULF BEGINNING SAT NIGHT WHEN NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVES SE THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND THE CAROLINAS...AMPLIFYING THE TROUGHING OVER THE SW N ATLC SUN AND SHIFTING INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC MON AND TUE...LEAVING A RIDGE IN ITS WAKE THAT WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE E GULF MON AND TUE WHILE A NEW TROUGH BUILDS OVER TEXAS. AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE WILL BUILD ALONG THE N CENTRAL GULF COAST BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT THROUGH SUN BEFORE SHIFTING E SUN NIGHT AND MON. A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT WILL BUILD BETWEEN THIS RIDGING AND THE DEVELOPING TROUGHING OVER TEXAS SUN NIGHT THROUGH TUE...WITH S-SE RETURN FLOW EXPECTED TO REACH NEAR GALE FORCE TUE NIGHT. THE 00Z GFS AND 12Z/03 ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: 00Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WIND FORECAST. 00Z NWPS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WAVE FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE 0210Z ASCAT PASS SHOWED 20-25 KT TRADE WINDS WITHIN 90-120 NM OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WHILE A 0010Z CRYOSAT ALTIMETER PASS SHOWED SEAS TO 9 FT. THE 00Z GFS AND 12Z/03 ECMWF AND THEIR RESPECTIVE WAVE MODELS ARE BOTH IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THESE OBSERVATIONS. BOTH MODELS AGREE ON INCREASING THE TRADE WINDS THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE BY MON NIGHT AND ACROSS MUCH OF THE N CARIBBEAN BY TUE NIGHT TO A FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BUILDS BETWEEN RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE SW N ATLC AND INCREASED TROUGHING OVER TEXAS AND THE W GULF OF MEXICO. AS STATED ABOVE...THE MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT. THE 00Z GFS SOLUTION SEEMS AS REASONABLE AS ANY FOR ADJUSTING THE GRIDS AND THE SLIGHTLY HIGHER WAVE HEIGHTS SEEN IN THE NWPS OVER THE MWW3 IN THE N CARIBBEAN LATE IN THE PERIOD APPEAR REASONABLE GIVEN THE EXPECTED STRENGTH OF THE WINDS. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: 00Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WIND FORECAST. 00Z NWPS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WAVE FORECAST. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE A GALE WARNING WAS ISSUED FOR THE SW N ATLC WATERS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THIS MORNING. THE 00Z GFS EXPLICITLY CALLS FOR GALES WHILE THE 12Z/03 ECMWF WAS WEAKER. THE LATEST GEFS MEAN SHOWS UP TO A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF GALES BETWEEN 30N-31N AT 12Z. THE SREF IS LESS ENTHUSIASTIC...BUT STILL SHOWS A 15 PERCENT CHANCE OF GALES IN THIS AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT. AS STATED IN THE GULF OF MEXICO SECTION...THE 00Z GFS APPEARS TO BE HANDLING THE WIND FIELD NEAR THIS FRONT INITIALLY BETTER THAN THE 12Z/03 ECMWF WHICH HAD A WEAKER SOLUTION. THE STRONGER GFS FORECAST IS PREFERRED. OTHERWISE...THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE LONG-WAVE PATTERN BEGINNING SAT NIGHT WHEN NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVES SE THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND THE CAROLINAS...AMPLIFYING THE TROUGHING OVER THE SW N ATLC SUN AND SHIFTING INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC MON AND TUE...LEAVING A RIDGE IN ITS WAKE THAT WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE SW N ATLC SUN NIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT. FRESH TO STRONG N WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER NE WATERS BY MON AS SURFACE TROUGHING OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC BUTTS UP AGAINST THE GROWING RIDGE OVER THE W PORTION. AT THE SAME TIME...NE TRADE WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE TO A FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE OVER WATERS PRIMARILY S OF 24N. THE GFS SOLUTION IS IN LINE WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS WITH THIS PATTERN. THE NWPS BUILDS SEAS OVER 8 FT MORE QUICKLY THAN THE MWW3 AND IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE EC WAVE. THE NWPS SOLUTION IS PREFERRED GIVEN THE LARGE AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS EXPECTED MON AND TUE ACROSS E AND S WATERS. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... .AMZ111...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N W OF 77W... GALE WARNING EARLY TODAY INTO TODAY. .AMZ113...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W... GALE WARNING TODAY. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER SCHAUER. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.