000 AGXX40 KNHC 032002 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 302 PM EST THU MAR 3 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS DRY FRONT THAT MOVE ACROSS ERN GULF TODAY STALLED ACROSS SE PORTIONS AND SW FL EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH ILL DEFINED REMNANTS NOW LIFTING N AS RETURN FLOW HAS BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS MOST OF BASIN. PEAK SEAS ACROSS THE BASIN REMAIN 4-5 FT ACROSS THE CENTRAL TEXAS COASTAL WATERS...WITH SEAS 3 FT OR LES ELSEWHERE. SWLY FLOW WILL FRESHEN NW AND N CENTRAL PORTIONS LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING AS NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY SINKS SE TO TEXAS-SW LA COAST. THIS 20-25 KT SW WIND WILL THEN SHIFT INTO NE PORTIONS OVERNIGHT WITH SEAS BUILDING 5-7 FT...WHILE FRONT DROPS INTO NW AND N CENTRAL PORTIONS WITH VERY BRIEF NLY FLOW OF 20 KT BEHIND IT. FRONT EXPECTED TO REACH FROM TAMPA BAY TO BRO BY 12Z FRI AND THEN STALL FROM ABOUT FL KEYS TO 23.5N91W BY 12Z SAT WHERE IT WILL THEN DISSIPATE. AFTER THE INITIAL PULSE OF 20 KT BEHIND FRONT WINDS TO GRADUALLY ABATE AND VEER THROUGH SAT. N TO S RIDGE TO ESTABLISH ACROSS BASIN LATE SAT THROUGH SUN THEN SHIFT E SUN NIGHT ALLOWING FRESHENING RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP NW PORTIONS. STRONG RIDGE TO DOMINATE MON-WED WITH STRONG RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING AND SEAS BUILDING 8-10 FT BY EARLY TUE. MODELS SUGGESTING SELY GALES TO OCCUR BY LATE TUE OR WED...WITH GFS FOCUSING ON NW GULF AND ECMWF ACROSS CENTRAL AND NE GULF. REGARDLESS...VERY ROUGH CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE BASIN FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS REMNANTS OF OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTEND FROM CENTRAL ATLC TROFFING SW THEN W INTO LEEWARDS TODAY PRODUCING PASSING SHOWERS. OTHERWISE MOST OF BASIN UNDER FAIR WEATHER REGIME WITH MODERATE TRADES EXCEPT FRESH TO STRONG ACROSS COLOMBIAN BASIN. SEAS ARE 6-9 FT ACROSS S CENTRAL PORTIONS PER LATEST OBS AND 3-5 FT ELSEWHERE...EXCEPT 3 FT OR LESS NW PORTIONS. WEAK ATLC RIDGE TO GENERALLY REMAIN INTACT FROM 1021 MB HIGH NEAR 30N56W SW TO GREATER ANTILLES...AND LITTLE CHANGE IN OVERALL CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT BEFORE HIGH SHIFTS SLIGHTLY EWD FRI AND OVERALL PRES GRADIENT WEAKENS JUST ENOUGH TO DIMINISH TRADES FURTHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. GULF OF MEXICO FRONT WILL MOVE INTO STRAITS OF FL OVER WEEKEND AND POSSIBLY ALONG NW COAST OF CUBA...WITH LIGHT BACKING OF WINDS W AND NW PORTIONS. STRONG STORM SYSTEM SUPPORTING THIS FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS W ATLC FRI-SAT AND GENERATE DECENT NNW SWELL THAT WILL REACH NE CARIB ISLANDS AND TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS SUN EVENING AND BUILD SUN NIGHT INTO MON. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: ECMWF WEAK AND DRY FRONT BECOMING STRUNG OUT ACROSS NE WATERS AND HAS STALLED ALONG ABOUT 27N TO ABOUT 75W...WHILE SLY FLOW DEVELOPING TODAY HAS LIFTED PORTION ACROSS NW BAHAMAS NWD THIS AFTERNOON. FRONT OF LITTLE CONSEQUENCE. SEAS 6-8 FT N OF FRONT E OF 75W EARLIER THIS MORNING IN NW SWELL...AND 4-5 FT IN NE TO E SWELL ELSEWHERE. MAIN ISSUE THIS PACKAGE REMAINS GALE OR NO GALE WITH NEXT FRONT MOVING ACROSS NW PORTIONS FRI MORNING. GFS IS INSISTENT ON SWLY GALES AHEAD OF FRONT 12-18Z IN A NARROW BAND N OF 29N...WHILE ECMWF SHOWS SAID BAND BUT LOW WIND BIAS NIT YIELDING GALES AT SFC. BLEND OF THESE WITH RECENT FORECASTS YIELDING SMALL NARROW BAND OF GALES AND FOLLOWING IN LINE WITH GFS...SO WILL HAVE TO GO AHEAD AND PULL THE TRIGGER WITH NEXT PACKAGE. SUPPORTING LOW TO DEEPEN QUICKLY ACROSS W ATLC FRI-SAT AND GENERATE LARGE NNW SWELL MOVING INTO THE AREA SAT THROUGH SUN. FRONT TO REACH 30N65W TO NW BAHAMAS BY 12Z SAT AND THEN STALL BY 12Z SUN 27N65W TO CENTRAL BAHAMAS. FRESH FLOW BOTH AHEAD AND BEHIND FRONT WILL BE BRIEF FRI THROUGH FRI NIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING NE AND OUT OF AREA BY SAT MORNING. MILD WINDS TO PREVAIL BEHIND FRONT THROUGH EARLY SUN UNTIL NEXT S/W MOVES INTO WRN ATLC AND ANOTHER SFC LOW QUICKLY DEVELOPS...DRAGGING A FRONTAL LIKE TROF ACROSS NW WATERS SUN. MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE MON-WED IN REGARD TO DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW MOVING INTO REMNANT FRONTAL ZONE. DESPITE DIFFERENCES STRONG RIDGE BEHIND THIS LOW TO PRODUCE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT ACROSS S AND SE WATERS MON AND TUE. POTENTIAL FOR LONG NE FETCH TO DEVELOP TUE WED AND MIX WITH STRONG NE TO E WINDS TO CREATE ROUGH MIXED SEAS 7-11 FT FAR E AND SE PORTIONS. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... .AMZ111...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N W OF 77W... GALE WARNING TONIGHT. .AMZ113...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W... GALE WARNING FRI. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.