000 AGXX40 KNHC 030759 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 258 AM EST THU MAR 03 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: 0000 UTC GFS/MWW3 BLEND WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST THROUGH SUN...THEN GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED INTO THE GULF ABOUT 24 HOURS AGO HAS REACHED THE ERN GULF WHERE IT HAS SLOWED DOWN...AND IS WEAKENING ALONG 26N E OF 90W. WEAK HIGH PRES IS PRESENT ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA. CURRENT BUOY OBSERVATIONS AND PARTIAL ASCAT DATA SHOW LIGHT TO GENTLE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW OVER GULF...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE WESTERN PORTION WHERE WINDS SLY WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO THE MODERATE RANGE. THE OBSERVATIONS SHOW SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 1- 2 THROUGHOUT...EXCEPT FOR SEAS OF 3-4 FT FROM 25N-28N W OF 85W. YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL TX EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE RAPIDLY SE SENDING ANOTHER COLD FRONT INTO WRN GULF THIS EVENING. THE FRONT...LIKE THE PREVIOUS ONE...WILL QUICKLY ADVANCE THROUGH GULF REACHING FROM THE NE GULF TO NEAR 26N92W ...AND TO S TEXAS BY LATE TONIGHT...AND BEGIN TO WEAKEN OVER THE EASTERN GULF EARLY FRI FROM NEAR TAMPA BAY TO THE SW GULF. THE FRONT WILL MOVE E OF THE GULF FRI EVENING. THE FRONT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A BRIEF SURGE OF N-NE WINDS TONIGHT OVER THE NRN AND WRN GULF WITH SEAS NOT EXPECTED TO EXCEED 6 FT. WEAK HIGH PRES IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO SETTLE IN OVER THE NRN GULF THROUGH SAT...THEN BE REPLACED BY STRENGTHENING HIGH PRES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY REGION THAT BUILDS SEWD OVER THE AREA SUN THROUGH MON. THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE STRONGER HIGH PRES...AND DEEPENING LOW PRES OVER PLAINS AND W TEXAS WILL RESULT IN A TIGHTENING OF THE PRES GRADIENT BRINGING A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE OF E-SE WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS THROUGHOUT FROM SUN THROUGH MON NIGHT. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: 0000 UTC GFS BLEND WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WINDS. FOR WAVEHEIGHTS USED A GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS ALONG WITH A SMALL PERCENTAGE OF TAFB NWPS WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONTAL BNDRY IS DRAPED ACROSS THE NRN TRPCL ATLC ZONES ROUGHLY ALONG 17N/18N. RECENT ASCAT DATA ALONG WITH CURRENT BUOY OBSERVATIONS NOTE GENTLE TO MODERATE NE-E WINDS OVER JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE AREA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR S CENTRAL PART OF THE SEA TO ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WHERE A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT THERE MAINTAINS FRESH TO STRONG NE-E WINDS. THE BUOY OBSERVATIONS ALONG WITH RECENT ALTIMETER DATA SHOW SEAS IN THE 3-5 FT RANGE...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE S CENTRAL PART OF THE CARIBBEAN WHERE SEAS ARE SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER...IN THE 8-10 FT RANGE...AND IN THE WRN CARIBBEAN WHERE SEAS ARE MUCH LOWER...IN THE 2-3 FT RANGE. SEAS IN THE TRPCL N ATLC ZONES ARE 4-5 FT...EXCEPT FOR HIGHER SEAS OF 6-7 FT IN THE NW AND N CENTRAL PORTIONS. THE FRESH TO STRONG NE-E WINDS IN THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING TO FRESH IN INTENSITY...AND PULSING BACK UP TO FRESH TO STRONG LATE TONIGHT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 9-11 FT. THESE WINDS THEN DIMINISH BACK TO FRESH INTENSITY BY EARLY FRI AFTERNOON...AND CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TO MODERATE WINDS FRI AFTERNOON. THEY PULSE BACK TO FRESH INTENSITY FRI NIGHT...THEN DIMINISH BACK DOWN TO MODERATE SAT...AND REMAIN AT THAT INTENSITY THROUGH MON AS THE SUPPORTING GRADIENT WEAKENS DUE TO FRONTAL SYSTEMS PASSING TO THE N OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. MOSTLY MODERATE E TRADES WILL PERSIST ELSEWHERE DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: 0000 UTC GFS/MWW3 BLEND WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST THROUGH SAT...THEN USED A GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS SAT NIGHT THROUGH MON NIGHT. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N70W TO INLAND S FL AT WEST PALM BEACH. A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS INTO THE AREA E OF THE FRONT. AN ASCAT PASS FROM 0232 UTC INDICATED MODERATE NW WINDS OVER BEHIND THE FRONT N OF 29N. CURRENT BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOW GENERALLY GENTLE TO MODERATE NE-E WINDS ELSEWHERE SE OF THE FRONT AND MODERATE TO FRESH SW WINDS E OF THE FRONT N OF 30N. CURRENT BUOY OBSERVATIONS ARE SHOWING SEAS IN THE 5-6 FT SE OF THE FRONT...EXCEPT FOR SEAS OF 6-8 FT N OF 30N E OF FRONT AND SEAS OF 8 FT IN NW SWELL W OF THE FRONT N OF 30N. LOW SEA HEIGHTS...IN THE RANGE OF 1-3 FT ARE W OF A LINE FROM 31N81W TO 28N75W TO 21N76W. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM NEAR 31N67W TO 25N72W NEAR 12Z THIS MORNING WITH THE MODERATE TO FRESH SW WINDS AHEAD OF IT DIMINISHING TO MOSTLY MODERATE...AND SEAS TO 8 FT IN EXPECTED N OF 30N BETWEEN 68-70W. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT REACHES FROM NEAR 29N65W TO 26N71W BY THIS EVENING WITH ASSOCIATED WINDS BECOME GENTLE TO MODERATE ON EITHER SIDE OF IT...AND SEAS LOWERING TO 5-7 FT. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE SE U.S. THU NIGHT. INCREASING SLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN IN THE NW PORTION AT THAT TIME...AND CONTINUE INTO FRI WHILE INCREASING TO FRESH INTENSITY AND WITH SEAS OF 8-9 FT. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO REACH FROM NEAR 31N75W TO VERO BEACH FRI...AND WEAKEN AS IT MOVES OVER THE EASTERN PORTION SAT FROM NEAR 30N65W TO 25N68W TO CENTRAL CUBA. THIS FRONT IS ALSO EXPECTED TO ALSO BE FOLLOWED BY MODERATE TO FRESH W-NW WINDS N OF ABOUT 28N OR 29N FRI. THESE WINDS SHIFT TO THE NE PORTION OF THE AREA FRI NIGHT BEFORE LIFTING NE OF ZONE 115 SAT. IN ITS WAKE...WEAK HIGH PRES IS FORECAST TO BUILD THROUGHOUT THE BASIN. LEFTOVER NLY SWELL IS FORECAST TO AFFECT THE WATERS E OF THE BAHAMAS N OF ABOUT 24N ON SUN WITH INDUCED SEAS OF 8-10 FT. ON MON...THE SWELL WILL ENCOMPASS THE JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE AREA E OF THE BAHAMAS. THE NDFD GRIDS WILL REFLECT A GLOBAL MDL CONSENSUS SAT NIGHT THROUGH MON NIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR THE UNCERTAINTY WITH SWELL DISTRIBUTION AND RESULTANT MAX SEAS AS THE SWELL PROPAGATES SEWD THROUGH WATERS E AND NE OF THE BAHAMAS. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER AGUIRRE. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.