000 AGXX40 KNHC 021948 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 248 PM EST WED MAR 2 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS DRY COLD FRONT SINKING SSE ACROSS THE ERN GULF HAS SNAGGED ALONG CENTRAL PORTIONS OF TEXAS COAST AND CLEARLY IDENTIFIED BY ROPE CLOUD IN VIS IMAGERY. RECENT 15-16Z ASCAT PASSES SHOWED NE TO NE WINDS NEAR 20 KT SPILLING OFF MS-SE LA COASTS BEHIND FRONT WHERE SEAS ARE BUILDING BUT LIKELY STILL 4-6 FT. FLOW THEN VEERS ELY AROUND 15 KT ACROSS TEXAS WATERS ATTM. MODELS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH FRONT REMAINING STATIONARY ACROSS TEXAS TONIGHT AS E PORTION SINKS SE ACROSS ERN GULF... REACHING SE FL TO LA COASTAL WATERS BY 12Z THU...WHILE RETURN FLOW SETS UP TONIGHT AND LIFTS W PORTIONS OF FRONT. FRESHENING SW FLOW 20-25 KT WILL DEVELOP N CENTRAL AND NE GULF THU AND THU EVENING IN ADVANCE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM TO MOVE INTO N GULF THU EVENING... AND REACH FROM NEAR TAMPA BAY TO JUST N OF BRO BY 12Z FRI. WEAK HIGH PRES IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO SETTLE IN OVER THE NRN GULF THROUGH SUN. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS RETREATING ATLC RIDGE LEAVING MOSTLY LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADES ACROSS THE BASIN TODAY...WITH NOCTURNAL MAX ACROSS COLOMBIA BASIN PRODUCING SEAS 7-10 FT THERE AND SINCE SUBSIDING. RIDGE WILL WEAKEN FURTHER WITH ANCHORING HIGH SETTLING TO THE SE AND NEAR 30N55W WHICH WILL PRODUCE SUFFICIENT PRES GRADIENT TO MAINTAIN NOCTURNAL PULSING TO 30 KT OFF COLOMBIA EACH OF NEXT FEW NIGHTS...BEFORE FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES INTO W ATLC FRI AND PRODUCES MAX THERE TO 25 KT FRI NIGHT AND SAT NIGHT...WHILE REDUCED TRADES PREVAIL ELSEWHERE. ASSOCIATED FRONT TO REACH YUCATAN CHANNEL AND NW CUBA SAT NIGHT AND LINGER THROUGH SUN BUT DOES NOT PENETRATE FURTHER. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: ECMWF COLD FRONT HAS SHIFTED SE OFF THE ERN SEABOARD AND INTO NW WATERS TODAY...CURRENTLY FROM 31N76.5W TO NEAR CAPE CANAVERAL. 13-14Z ASCAT PASSES ACROSS W WATERS SHOWED SW TO WSW WINDS 20-25 KT AHEAD OF FRONT AND 25-30 KT N OF 30N. BUILDING SEAS THERE 1-2 FT ABOVE WW3 GUIDANCE N OF 29N. PARENT LOW AND SUPPORTING DYNAMICS TO LIFT OUT TO THE NNE TONIGHT WITH 20-25 KT WINDS AHEAD OF FRONT ALSO LIFTING OUT OF AREA BY THU 12Z. ATLC RIDGE ANCHORED ON 1024 MB HIGH CURRENTLY NEAR 30.5N57W AND WILL DRIFT SE AND SETTLE NEXT FEW DAYS NEAR 30N55W. FRONT TO REACH FROM NEAR 30N68W TO SE FL NEAR PALM BEACH BY THU 12Z WITH MODELS DEVELOPING A COASTAL TROUGH ACROSS FAR SE FL THAT ALLOWS FOR GULF OF MEXICO PORTION TO SINK A BIT FATHER S THAN ATLC COAST PORTION. PRE FRONTAL TROUGH INDICATED BY MODELS AHEAD OF FRONT TONIGHT N OF 25N WITH MODEST CNVTN EXPECTED ALONG IT. FRONT TO DRIFT N LATE THU AND EARLY FRI IN ADVANCE OF NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM TO APPROACH E COAST. FORECAST QUESTION OF THE DAY IS WHICH MODEL TO USE WITH THIS NEXT FRONT AS LATEST GFS SHOWING GALES AHEAD OF FRONT BRIEFLY EXTENDING SWD TO 29.5N 12-18Z FRI THEN LIFTING OUT OF AREA. ENSEMBLES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH PARENT LOW OF THIS NEXT SYSTEM WHICH IS ALSO IN LINE WITH 12Z RUN OF ECMWF. ECMWF ALSO APPEARS TO BE MORE IN LINE WITH ENSEMBLES WITH CENTRAL ATLC LOW AND FRONTAL SYSTEM AND HAVE THUS TRENDED MORE IN LINE WITH ECMWF FOR THIS FEATURE AND HAVE NOT ISSUED GALE WARNING FOR THIS AREA. TOO...SREF GALE PROBS REMAIN N OF AREA AS WELL. DESPITE THIS MODELS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING INTO FAR NW WATERS BY 12Z FRI THEN REACHING 31N70W TO NW BAHAMAS-PALM BEACH AREA BY 00Z SAT...AND 30N65W TO MIA AREA BY 12Z SAT WHERE IT WILL BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH SUN AS SUPPORTING SYSTEM LIFTS OUT ACROSS NE ATLC. STORM FORCE WINDS ACROSS WRN SEMICIRCLE OF LOW MOVING OFFSHORE OF HATTERAS WILL GENERATE STRONG NNW SWELL MOVING INTO N PORTIONS SAT AND SPREADING S AND SE THROUGH SUN. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.