000 AGXX40 KNHC 020921 AAA MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION...UPDATED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 421 AM EST WED MAR 02 2016 UPDATED SW N ATLC MODEL PREFERENCE MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: 0000 UTC GFS/MWW3 BLEND WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A COLD FRONT HAS RECENTLY ENTERED THE FAR NW GULF...AND AS OF 06Z IS LOCATED ALONG A POSITION FROM SE LOUISIANA SW TO 29N94W TO INLAND TX AT JUST S OF CRP. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE FL BIG BEND SW TO NEAR 27N87W. CURRENT BUOY OBSERVATIONS AND PARTIAL ASCAT DATA SHOW LIGHT TO GENTLE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW TO THE SE OF TROUGH AND COLD FRONT. THE OBSERVATIONS ARE SHOWING WINDS BECOMING N-NE IN THE MODERATE RANGE N OF THE FRONT. THE OBSERVATIONS SHOW SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 1-3 FT THROUGHOUT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF 3-4 FT SEAS IN THE ENTRANCE OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER ERN TX WILL SWING EASTWARD TODAY QUICKLY PUSHING THE COLD FRONT THROUGH ACROSS THE NRN GULF WATERS INTO THIS EVENING. THE SHORTWAVE WILL THEN LIFT N OF THE AREA ALLOWING FOR THE FRONT TO WEAKEN AS IT CROSSES THE ERN GULF THIS EVENING...AND TO E OF THE AREA BY EARLY ON THU. THE MODERATE NLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE SHORT-LIVED ...EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE IT BECOMES NE-E IN DIRECTION. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE NW GULF THU NIGHT...AND MOVE E THE GULF FRI EVENING. LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE DEPICTING THIS FRONT TO BE ON THE WEAK SIDE WITH NLY FLOW BEHIND IT IN THE MODERATE RANGE AND SEAS 5 FT OR LESS. WEAK HIGH PRES IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO SETTLE IN OVER THE NRN GULF THROUGH SUN. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: 0000 UTC GFS BLEND WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WINDS. FOR WAVEHEIGHTS USED BLEND OF 0000 UTC MWW3 WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST ALONG WITH A SMALL PERCENTAGE OF TAFB NWPS WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A REMNANT TROUGH RESULTANT FROM THE RECENT STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY OF THE PAST FEW DAYS IS ANALYZED FROM 21N82W TO 16N86W. RECENT ASCAT DATA ALONG WITH CURRENT BUOY OBSERVATIONS NOTE GENTLE TO MODERATE NE-E WINDS OVER JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE AREA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR S CENTRAL PART OF THE SEA TO ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WHERE A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT THERE MAINTAINS FRESH TO STRONG NE-E WINDS. THE BUOY OBSERVATIONS ALONG WITH RECENT ALTIMETER DATA SHOW SEAS IN THE 3-5 FT RANGE...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE S CENTRAL PART OF THE CARIBBEAN WHERE SEAS ARE SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER...IN THE 8-11 FT RANGE...AND IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC ZONE WHERE SEAS ARE 5-7 FT. THE FRESH TO STRONG NE-E WINDS IN THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN BECOME MOSTLY FRESH IN INTENSITY THROUGH SAT NIGHT WITH SEAS THERE IN THE RANGE OF ABOUT 7-9 FT. MOSTLY MODERATE E TRADES WILL PERSIST ELSEWHERE DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: 0000 UTC GFS/MWW3 BLEND WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST...EXCEPT USED GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS SAT THROUGH SUN NIGHT. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE FAR SE WATERS. A 1024 MB HIGH AT 31N60W EXTENDS A RIDGE WSW TO NEAR 28N77W. AN ASCAT PASS FROM 0254 UTC INDICATED MODERATE SW WINDS OVER THE FAR NW WATERS. CURRENT BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOW GENERALLY GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ELSEWHERE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GENTLE E WINDS WINDS SW OF THE BAHAMAS. AN ASCAT PASS FROM 0114 UTC VERIFIED THE GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS. CURRENT BUOY OBSERVATIONS ARE SHOWING SEAS IN THE 6-7 FT RANGE S OF 24N TO THE E OF THE SE BAHAMAS...AND 3-5 FT ELSEWHERE EXCEPT FOR LOWER SEAS OF 1-3 FT W OF A LINE FROM 31N80W TO 28N75W TO CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO EASTERN CUBA. THE MODERATE E WINDS S OF 25N E OF THE BAHAMAS WILL CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH THU...THEN BECOME LIGHT E-SE WINDS FRI THROUGH SAT. THE 1024 MB HIGH WILL MOVE NE THROUGH THROUGH THU...BUT EXTEND A WEAKENING RIDGE WESTWARD ALONG 30N. THIS RIDGE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH FRI AND WEAKEN IN RESPONSE TO THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. THE MODERATE SW WINDS OVER THE FAR NW WATERS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE TO FRESH INTENSITY THIS MORNING IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT THAT APPROACHES THE SE U.S. SEAS WITH THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BUILD TO 8 OR 9 FT THIS MORNING. THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE OFF THE SE U.S COAST AND OVER THE NW PORTION THIS MORNING. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM NEAR 31N73W TO NEAR WEST PALM BEACH THIS EVENING...THEN WEAKEN AS IT REACHES FROM NEAR 31N66W TO 26N72W TO CENTRAL CUBA EARLY THU...AND WEAKEN FURTHER FROM NEAR 29N65W TO 25N72W AND STATIONARY TO 24N75W FRI WITH ITS WESTERN PORTION LIFTING BACK N AS A WARM FRONT OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA N OF THE BAHAMAS. FRESH W TO NW WINDS WITH SEAS OF AROUND 8-10 FT WILL FOLLOW IN BEHIND THE FRONT N OF 29N THIS AFTERNOON IN ZONE 111 AND MOST OF ZONE 113 BEFORE LIFTING N OF 31N TONIGHT AND BE REPLACED BY MODERATE NLY FLOW. THE FLOW WILL THEN BECOME GENTLE TO MODERATE N-NE N OF 27N THU. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE SE U.S. THU NIGHT. INCREASING SLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN IN THE NW PORTION AT THAT TIME...AND CONTINUE INTO FRI WHILE INCREASING TO FRESH INTENSITY AND WITH SEAS OF 8-9 FT. THIS NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO REACH FROM NEAR 31N75W TO VERO BEACH FRI...AND WEAKEN AS IT MOVES OVER THE EASTERN PORTION FROM NEAR 28N65W TO 25N67W SAT AND DISSIPATE BY SUN. THIS FRONT...LIKE THE FIRST ONE...IS EXPECTED TO ALSO BE FOLLOWED BY MODERATE TO FRESH W-NW WINDS N OF ABOUT 28N OR 29N FRI. THESE WINDS SHIFT TO THE NE PORTION OF THE AREA FRI NIGHT BEFORE LIFTING NE OF ZONE 115 SAT. IN ITS WAKE...WEAK HIGH PRES IS FORECAST TO BUILD THROUGHOUT THE BASIN. LEFTOVER NLY SWELL IS FORECAST TO AFFECT THE WATERS E OF THE BAHAMAS N OF ABOUT 24N ON SUN WITH RESULTANT SEAS OF 8-10 FT. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER AGUIRRE. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.