000 AGXX40 KNHC 010800 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 300 AM EST TUE MAR 01 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: 0000 UTC GFS/MWW3 BLEND WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRES OF 1021 MB IS CENTERED IN THE FAR NE GULF AT 29N83.5W WITH A RIDGE WESTWARD TO JUST E OF SE LOUISIANA. CURRENT BUOY OBSERVATIONS AND PARTIAL ASCAT DATA SHOW ANTICYCLONIC FLOW CONSISTING OF GENERALLY LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS THROUGHOUT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MODERATE E WINDS THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. THE OBSERVATIONS SHOW SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 3-4 FT S OF 25N E OF 85W...AND 1-3 FT ELSEWHERE. THE 1021 MB HIGH CENTER JUST W OF THE FL COAST AT 29N83W WILL DISSIPATE AS IT SHIFTS EASTWARD TODAY. DEEPENING LOW PRES MOVING E ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT OFF THE TX COAST...AND INTO THE FAR NW GULF TONIGHT...REACH FROM THE WRN FL PANHANDLE TO BROWNSVILLE TX LATE TONIGHT...FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND TO BROWNSVILLE TX EARLY ON WED...THEN WEAKEN QUICKLY AS IT MOVES E OF THE GULF WED NIGHT. NLY MODERATE FLOW WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT TONIGHT TUE NIGHT INTO WED...THEN WEAKEN BY WED EVENING AS IT BECOMES NE-E IN DIRECTION. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE NW GULF THU NIGHT...AND MOVE E THE GULF FRI EVENING. LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE DEPICTING THIS FRONT TO BE ON THE WEAK SIDE WITH NLY FLOW BEHIND IT IN THE MODERATE RANGE AND SEAS 5 FT OR LESS. WEAK HIGH PRES IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO SETTLE IN OVER THE NRN GULF THROUGH SAT. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: 0000 UTC GFS BLEND WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WINDS. FOR WAVEHEIGHTS USED BLEND OF 0000 UTC MWW3 WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL ALONG WITH A SMALL PERCENTAGE OF TAFB NWPS WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A REMNANT TROUGH RESULTANT FROM THE RECENT STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY OF THE PAST FEW DAYS IS ANALYZED FROM 20N84W TO 15N88W. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS JUST CROSSING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS... AND WILL SOON WILL BE ENTERING THE FAR NE CARIBBEAN. RECENT ASCAT DATA ALONG WITH CURRENT BUOY OBSERVATIONS NOTE GENTLE TO MODERATE NE-E WINDS OVER JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE AREA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR S CENTRAL PART OF THE SEA TO ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WHERE A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT THERE MAINTAINS FRESH TO STRONG NE-E WINDS. THE BUOY OBSERVATIONS ALONG WITH RECENT ALTIMETER DATA SHOW SEAS IN THE 3-5 FT RANGE...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE S CENTRAL PART OF THE CARIBBEAN WHERE SEAS ARE SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER IN THE 6-9 FT RANGE...AND IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC ZONE WHERE SEAS ARE 6-7 FT. THE FRESH TO STRONG NE-E WINDS IN THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THU NIGHT...THEN BECOME MOSTLY FRESH IN INTENSITY THROUGH SAT WITH SEAS THERE IN THE RANGE OF ABOUT 7-9 FT. MOSTLY MODERATE E TRADES WILL PERSIST ELSEWHERE DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: 0000 UTC GFS/MWW3 BLEND WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH WED...THEN MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THU THROUGH SAT. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ALONG 20N E OF THE 69W...WHILE A HIGH PRES CENTER OF 1024 MB IS ANALYZED AT 31N64W WITH A RIDGE WSW TO E CENTRAL FL. AN ASCAT PASS FROM 0134 UTC INDICATED MODERATE E WINDS S OF 25N E OF THE SE BAHAMAS. LIGHTER NE-E WINDS...IN THE GENTLE TO MODERATE RANGE ARE N OF 25N...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR NW PART WHERE LIGHT S-SW WINDS ARE PRESENT. CURRENT BUOY OBSERVATIONS ARE SHOWING SEAS IN THE 6-7 FT RANGE S OF 25N E OF THE SE BAHAMAS...AND 3-5 FT ELSEWHERE EXCEPT FOR LOWER SEAS OF 1-3 FT W OF A LINE FROM 31N80W TO 28N72W TO 24N75W TO 22N78W. THE MODERATE E WINDS S OF 25N E OF THE BAHAMAS WILL CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH THU...THEN BECOME LIGHT E-SE WINDS FRI THROUGH SAT. THE 1024 MB HIGH WILL MOVE NE OF THE FORECAST WATERS TONIGHT ...BUT EXTEND A WEAKENING RIDGE WESTWARD ALONG 30N. THIS RIDGE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH FRI AND WEAKEN IN RESPONSE TO THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. SLY FLOW INCREASES IN THE NW TONIGHT AND WED ALONG WITH SEAS BUILDING UP TO AROUND 8-10 FT FT AHEAD OF THIS NEXT COLD FRONT...EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE SE U.S COAST AND OVER THE NW PORTION EARLY ON WED. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM NEAR 31N73W TO NEAR WEST PALM BEACH WED NIGHT...THEN WEAKEN AS IT REACHES FROM NEAR 31N67W TO 25N72W AND TO EASTERN CUBA EARLY THU...AND BECOME STATIONARY FROM NEAR 28N65W TO 25N71W TO WINDWARD PASSAGE BY FRI AFTERNOON. MODERATE TO FRESH W TO NW WINDS WITH SEAS OF AROUND 8- 10 FT WILL FOLLOW IN BEHIND THE FRONT N OF 28N...THEN BECOME GENTLE TO MODERATE N-NE WINDS THU AND FRI. INCREASING SLY WINDS DEVELOP AGAIN IN THE NW PORTION THU NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO REACH FROM NEAR 31N75W TO VERO BEACH...AND WEAKEN AS IT MOVES OVER THE EASTERN PORTION FROM NEAR 28N65W TO 25N67W TO NEAR THE WINDWARD PASSAGE SAT. THIS FRONT...LIKE THE FIRST ONE...IS EXPECTED TO ALSO BE FOLLOWED BY MODERATE TO FRESH W-NW WINDS N OF 28N FRI. THESE WINDS SHIFT TO THE NE PORTION OF THE AREA ON SAT. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER AGUIRRE. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.