000 AGXX40 KNHC 291913 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 213 PM EST MON FEB 29 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS A RIDGE REACHES ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS FROM A 1024 MB HIGH PRES AREA CENTERED OVER N CENTRAL FLORIDA TO THE TEXAS COAST. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST THROUGH EARLY TUE AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING OFF THE TEXAS COAST LATE TUE. THE MAIN WEATHER ISSUE WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF FOG OVER THE NW GULF LATE TUE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...DISSIPATING AFTER THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA AS FRESH NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT DELIVERS DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. THE FRONT MOVE EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THU MORNING...SWEEPING THE SE GULF ALONG THE WAY BUT MODIFYING CONSIDERABLY AS WELL. OTHER THAN REGIONAL WIND SHIFTS...LITTLE IMPACT IS EXPECTED ON WINDS AND SEAS. SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL INCREASE OFF THE TEXAS COAST BY EARLY THU AHEAD OF ANOTHER FRONT THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN WATERS LATE THU AND FRI. WHILE MODELS ARE REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE POSITION AND TIMING OF THIS FRONT...FOG MAY AGAIN BE AN ISSUE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF AHEAD OF THIS FRONT THU MORNING...BUT MOISTURE VALUES MAY NOT HAVE RECOVERED ENOUGH TO SUPPORT WIDESPREAD FOG AND THIS WILL NOT BE INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE NO MAJOR IMPACTS ON MARINE WEATHER. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS FAVORING GFS. 1025 MB SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRES IS CENTERED NEAR 30N69W...SUPPORTING FRESH NE FLOW THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE THIS MORNING...AND FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. GENERALLY MODERATE TRADE WIND FLOW PERSISTS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WITH 4 TO 6 FT SEAS. THE HIGH PRES WILL SHIFT EAST LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT...ALLOWING WINDS TO DIMINISH SLIGHTLY...ALTHOUGH STRONG PULSES WILL CONTINUE OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA MAINLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THROUGH MID WEEK WITH SEAS REACHING UP TO 10 FT. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST OR FORECAST PHILOSOPHY WITH GFS FAVORED FOR CAPTURING STRONG WINDS OFF THE HIGH TERRAIN ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA. MODERATE TRADE WINDS ARE ALSO NOTED OVER THE TROPICAL NORTH ATLC WITH 6 TO 7 FT SEAS IN E SWELL. THE SWELL DECAYS TO 4 TO 6 FT THROUGH EARLY TUE WITH NO MAJOR CHANGES OTHERWISE THROUGH LATE WEEK. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING ALONG ROUGHLY 21N WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH TUE. 1025 MB HIGH PRES CENTERED NEAR 30N96W WILL SHIFT EAST THROUGH TONIGHT AND TUE AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST BY EARLY WED. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST AHEAD OF THE FRONT BY LATE TUE...LIKELY REACHING 20 TO 25 KT N OF 30N THROUGH EARLY WED MORNING WITH 8 TO 9 FT SEAS. THE FRONT WILL MOVE EAST AND REACH FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO THE FLORIDA STRAITS BY EARLY THU WITH GENERALLY GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS OVER THE REGION AND SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT. A REPEAT PERFORMANCE WILL OCCUR BY LATE THU AS ANOTHER WEAK FRONT EMERGES OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST BY FRI MORNING...REACHING A POSITION FROM BERMUDA TO S FLORIDA BY FRI NIGHT WITH FRESH NW WINDS AND 8 TO 10 FT SEAS OVER THE WATERS N OF 30N E OF 77W INTO SAT. 12Z GFS AND ECWMF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TIMING AND INTENSITY. WINDS DIMINISH ACROSS THE AREA SAT AS THE FRONT WILL EXITS TO THE EAST LEAVING A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT ALONG ROUGHLY 21N. NW SWELL N OF 30N WILL SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 FT FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH LATE SAT. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.