000 AGXX40 KNHC 290801 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 300 AM EST MON FEB 29 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: 0000 UTC GFS BLEND WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST THROUGH TUE FOR WINDS...THEN USED A GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS BLEND. FOR WAVEHEIGHTS USED BLEND OF 0000 UTC MWW3 WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUE...THEN MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THEREAFTER. HIGH PRES OF 1023 MB IS CENTERED IN THE FAR NE GULF ALONG THE FLORIDA COAST AT 29N83W WITH A RIDGE WESTWARD TO NE TEXAS. CURRENT BUOY OBSERVATIONS AND PARTIAL ASCAT DATA SHOW ANTICYCLONIC FLOW CONSISTING OF GENERALLY LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS THROUGHOUT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MODERATE E WINDS IN THE FAR SE PORTION AND STRAITS OF FLORIDA. THE OBSERVATIONS SHOW SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 3-5 FT S OF 25N E OF 86W...AND 2-3 FT ELSEWHERE EXCEPT FOR 1-2 FT IN THE N CENTRAL PORTION. THE MODERATE E WINDS WILL DIMINISH TODAY. THE HIGH PRES SYSTEM IN THE FAR NE GULF WILL MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH MID-WEEK WHILE WEAKENING AS LOW PRES MOVING E THROUGH THE CENTRAL U.S. DRAGS A COLD FRONT OFF THE TX COAST...AND INTO THE FAR NW GULF TUE EVENING. THE FRONT WILL QUICKLY REACH FROM THE WRN FL PANHANDLE TO BROWNSVILLE TX LATE TUE NIGHT...FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND TO BROWNSVILLE TX AROUND 12Z WED...THEN WEAKEN AS IT MOVES E OF THE GULF WED NIGHT. GLOBAL MODELS IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF FRONT ACROSS THE GULF. MODELS DUE GENERALLY AGREE THAT NLY MODERATE FLOW WILL BRIEFLY FOLLOW THE FRONT TUE NIGHT INTO WED...THEN WEAKEN BY WED EVENING AS THEY VEER AROUND TO AN ELY DIRECTION. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE NW GULF THU NIGHT...AND MOVE E THE GULF FRI EVENING AS WEAK HIGH PRES SETTLES IN OVER THE NW GULF. LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE WEAKER WITH THIS FRONT COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE PAST FEW DAYS. A GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS BLEND USED FOR THE NDFD GRIDS WILL DEPICT MODERATE NLY WINDS AS WELL BEHIND THIS FRONT FOR THU NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI TIME PERIODS. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: 0000 UTC GFS BLEND WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WINDS. FOR WAVEHEIGHTS USED BLEND OF 0000 UTC MWW3 WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL ALONG WITH A SMALL PERCENTAGE OF TAFB NWPS WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE 06Z ANALYSIS HAS THE PERSISTENT STATIONARY FRONT NOW DISSIPATING FROM NRN HAITI SW TO JAMAICA AND TO THE NE COAST OF HONDURAS AT 15N83W. THE PRES GRADIENT TO ITS W OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN HAS SLACKEN AND SO THE EARLIER OBSERVED FRESH NE WINDS THERE HAVE DIMINISHED TO GENTLE TO MODERATE NE-E WINDS. FRESH NE WINDS THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE HAVE ALSO DIMINISHED TO AROUND MODERATE INTENSITY AS INFERRED BY RECENT ASCAT DATA AND A COUPLE OF SHIP REPORTS. RECENT ASCAT DATA ALONG WITH BUOY OBSERVATIONS INDICATED MAINLY MODERATE E WINDS THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC ZONES. THE EXCEPTION IS ELSEWHERE NW OF THE STATIONARY FRONT WHERE MODERATE TO FRESH N-NE WINDS ARE NOTED. THE HIGH PRES RIDGING IN THE NW CARIBBEAN WILL WEAKEN THROUGH WED ALLOWING FOR THE GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS TO WEAKEN FURTHER TO MOSTLY GENTLE SPEEDS. SEAS AT THAT TIME ARE FORECAST TO BE RATHER LOW THERE PER WAVEWATCH AND NWPS OUTPUT...IN THE 2-4 FT RANGE WED THROUGH FRI. FRESH NE-E WINDS IN THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THU WHILE SHRINKING IN THE COVERAGE AREA. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PULSE TO 25-30 KT WITHIN 60 NM OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA TONIGHT. SEAS INDUCED BY THESE WINDS WILL BE IN THE 8-10 FT RANGE. MOSTLY MODERATE E TRADES WILL PERSIST ELSEWHERE DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: 0000 UTC GFS/MWW3 BLEND WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WINDS THROUGH TUE...THEN USED A GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS BLEND. FOR WAVEHEIGHTS USED BLEND OF 0000 UTC GFS WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL THROUGH TUE...THEN USED A GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS BLEND INCORPORATING SOME OF THE TAFB NWPS WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUE...THEN MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THEREAFTER. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 24N65W SW TO NW HAITI AT 06Z. HIGH PRES OF 1025 MB IS CENTERED IN THE FAR NW PORTION AT 30N74W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SE TO NEAR 25N66W. AN ASCAT PASS FROM 0154 UTC INDICATED MODERATE NE WINDS N OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO NEAR 25N. LIGHTER NE-E WINDS...IN THE GENTLE TO MODERATE RANGE ARE N OF 25N...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR NW PART WHERE LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS S-SW IN DIRECTION ARE NOTED. BUOY OBSERVATIONS ARE SHOWING SEAS FROM FORMER NW SWELL NOW HAVING SUBSIDED TO THE 6-7 FT RANGE SE OF A LINE FROM 31N65W TO 21N72W. LOWER SEAS...IN THE 4-6 FT RANGE ARE W OF THIS LINE TO 76W. LOWER SEAS OF 2-3 FT ARE W OF 76W...EXCEPT FOR 3-5 FT SEAS S OF 25NW OF 79W. THE STATIONARY FRONT IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE TODAY. THE MODERATE NE WINDS WINDS N OF THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON...THEN BRIEFLY INCREASE AGAIN TUE NIGHT. THE 1025 MB HIGH WILL SHIFT TO THE FAR NE PORTION BY TUE WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING ROUGHLY ALONG 30N. THIS RIDGE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH FRI AND WEAKEN IN IN RESPONSE TO THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. SLY FLOW INCREASES IN THE NW PORTION TUE NIGHT AND WED ALONG WITH SEAS BUILDING UP TO AROUND 8-10 FT FT AHEAD OF THIS NEXT COLD FRONT...EXPECTED THE MOVE OFF THE SE U.S COAST EARLY WED ...AND INTO THE NW PORTION BY EARLY WED AFTERNOON. MODELS HAVE COME MORE INTO AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM NEAR 31N73W TO SE FLORIDA WED NIGHT...THEN WEAKEN AS IT REACHES FROM NEAR 31N67W TO 25N72W AND TO EASTERN CUBA EARLY THU AND BECOME STATIONARY FROM NEAR 28N65W TO 25N71W TO WINDWARD PASSAGE BY FRI AFTERNOON. MODERATE TO FRESH W TO NW WINDS WITH SEAS OF AROUND 8-10 FT WILL FOLLOW IN BEHIND THE FRONT N OF 28N...THE DIMINISH TO GENTLE TO MODERATE N-NE WINDS THU AND FRI. INCREASING SLY WINDS MATERIALIZE AGAIN IN THE NW PORTION THU NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO REACH FROM 31N75W TO NEAR WEST PALM BEACH. THIS FRONT LIKE THE PREVIOUS ONE IS EXPECTED TO ALSO BE FOLLOWED BY MODERATE TO FRESH W-NW WINDS N OF 27N...AND SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 9-14 FT IN NW SWELL. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER AGUIRRE. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.