000 AGXX40 KNHC 281749 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1249 PM EST SUN FEB 28 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: 12Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WIND FORECAST THROUGH TUE THEN WEIGHTED MORE TOWARD THE ECMWF. NWPS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WAVES. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUE THEN LOW CONFIDENCE TUE NIGHT THROUGH FRI. RIDGING OVER THE NE GULF WILL DOMINATE THE FLOW INTO TUE. THE 12Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF AGREE ON CARRYING THE FRONT OFFSHORE JUST AFTER 00Z WED. THE GFS IS SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER WITH THE FRONT AS IT MOVES OFFSHORE AND CARRIES 30 KT N WINDS IN THE NW GULF AT 06Z WED WHILE THE ECMWF IS FASTER AND WEAKER WITH THE FRONT. THE UKMET FRONT POSITION IS CLOSER TO THE ECMWF...BUT IT IS STRONGER THAN THE ECMWF WITH THE WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT. THE 12Z GFS GOES ON TO SHOW GALES ALONG THE COAST OF VERACRUZ AT 12Z AND 18Z WED. NONE OF THE OTHER MODELS ARE THIS STRONG OR EVEN CARRY THE FRONT S OF 24N IN THE WESTERN GULF. THE ECMWF LOOKS MORE LIKE THE MODEL CONSENSUS BY CARRYING A WEAK FRONT E OF THE AREA QUICKLY. DIFFERENCES BECOME EVEN MORE PRONOUNCED ON THU AND FRI WHEN THE NEXT FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE NW GULF. THE GEFS MEAN LOOKS LIKE THE WEAKER/SLOWER GFS SOLUTION WHILE THE EC ENS MEAN LOOKS LIKE THE 00Z FASTER/STRONGER ECMWF...WITH THE OTHER OPERATIONAL MODELS FALLING SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN. THE RECENT MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN IS IN THE PROCESS OF CHANGING. THE FORECAST GRIDS LEAN MORE TOWARD THE ECMWF LATE IN THE PERIOD MOSTLY TO LINE UP BETTER WITH NEIGHBORS AND BECAUSE THE ECMWF IS GENERALLY BETTER WITH LONGER-RANGE FORECASTS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: 12Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WIND FORECAST. NWPS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL WAVE FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE. BASED ON THE LATEST SCATTEROMETER PASSES...THE 00Z ECMWF IS WEAK BOTH WITH THE WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT STRETCHED FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO SE HONDURAS. THE GFS LOOKS REASONABLE HERE AS WELL AS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. THE GFS IS AMONG THE STRONGER SOLUTIONS WITH THE FUNNELING NE WINDS IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TONIGHT. THE STRONGER SOLUTION USUALLY PREVAILS IN THESE SCENARIOS. THE SEAS WERE BUMPED UP HERE COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST/NWPS BLEND TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LONG FETCH OF FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS THROUGH THE PASSAGE. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE CARIBBEAN BY MON. OTHERWISE...RIDGING TO THE N WILL DOMINATE FLOW ACROSS THE TROPICAL N ATLC THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. A PERSISTENT FRESH TO STRONG E-NE BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO HOVER OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA...AND INCREASE TO 30 KT IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS EVERYDAY WITH THE ASSISTANCE OF NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW THROUGH THU...WITH WINDS DIMINISHING A BIT FRI AS TROUGHING BUILDS OVER THE SW N ATLC. THE GFS GENERALLY PERFORMS BETTER UNDER THIS TYPE OF WIND REGIME BY CARRYING A STRONGER SOLUTION. ITS SOLUTION WAS USED TO ADJUST THE GRIDS. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: 12Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF BLENDED WITH THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WIND FORECAST THROUGH TUE THEN WEIGHTED MORE TOWARD ECMWF TUE NIGHT THROUGH FRI. NWPS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS WAVE FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUE THEN LOW CONFIDENCE TUE NIGHT THROUGH FRI. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FORECAST OF THE COLD FRONT STRETCHED FROM 23N65W TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...GENERALLY SHOWING THE REINFORCING TROUGH MERGING WITH THE FRONT LATE TODAY AND INCREASING THE WINDS N OF THE FRONT OVERNIGHT. THE MOST RECENT ASCAT PASS SHOWS FRESH TO STRONG N-NE WINDS CAN ALREADY BE FOUND WITHIN 150 NM NW OF THE FRONT BETWEEN 68W-74W. THE GFS IS THE STRONGEST SOLUTION WITH THE WINDS HERE AND CLOSEST TO THE OBSERVATIONS. HOWEVER...WINDS STILL NEEDED TO BE BUMPED UP TO MATCH THE OBSERVATIONS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH OVER FORECAST WATERS BEHIND THE FRONT BY MON. HIGH PRES WILL DOMINATE THE FLOW OVER THE REGION MON AND TUE AS IT SHIFTS E ALONG 31N. BY TUE NIGHT...S-SW FLOW WILL INCREASE OVER WESTERN WATERS IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO REACH THE NE FLORIDA COAST WED. THE 12Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF ARE VERY DIFFERENT WITH THE FRONT...WITH THE 00Z ECMWF WEAKER AND FASTER THAN THE GFS. THE GFS IS THE SLOWEST MODEL WHILE THE ECMWF IS THE FASTEST BUT THE CLOSER TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS. THE ENSEMBLES ARE SPLIT...FAVORING THEIR OPERATIONAL RUNS. CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW. THE FORECAST GRIDS LEAN MORE TOWARD THE ECMWF LATE IN THE PERIOD MOSTLY TO LINE UP BETTER WITH NEIGHBORS AND BECAUSE THE ECMWF IS GENERALLY BETTER WITH LONGER-RANGE FORECASTS $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER SCHAUER. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.