000 AGXX40 KNHC 280834 CCA MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION...CORRECTED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 300 AM EST SUN FEB 28 2016 CORRECTED GULF OF MEXICO TO INCLUDE MENTION OF SURFACE TROUGH MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: 0000 UTC GFS BLEND WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST THROUGH TUE FOR WINDS...THEN USED A GFS/ECMWF BLEND. FOR WAVEHEIGHTS USED BLEND OF 0000 UTC MWW3 WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUE...THEN MEDIUM CONFIDENCE TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT. HIGH PRES OF 1026 MB IS CENTERED IN THE FAR NE GULF JUST W OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA WITH ASSOCIATED RIDGING OVER THE N CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF. CURRENT BUOY OBSERVATIONS AND PARTIAL ASCAT DATA SHOW ANTICYCLONIC FLOW CONSISTING OF GENERALLY LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS THROUGHOUT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MODERATE N-NE WINDS IN THE FAR SE PORTION AND STRAITS OF FLORIDA. THE OBSERVATIONS SHOW SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 4-5 FT S OF 25N E OF 90W...AND ALSO SE OF A LINE FROM 24N90W TO 21N92W. SEAS ELSEWHERE ARE LOWER...IN THE RANGE OF 1-2 FT. THE MODERATE N-NE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT INTO MON. THE HIGH PRES SYSTEM IN THE FAR NE GULF WILL MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE WEAKENING AS LOW PRES MOVING E THROUGH THE CENTRAL U.S. DRAGS A COLD FRONT OFF THE TEXAS COAST...AND INTO THE NW GULF LATE TUE NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM SOUTHERN LOUISIANA TO FAR SOUTHERN TEXAS LATE TUE NIGHT...FROM NEAR THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO 23N98W EARLY WED...THEN FROM APALACHEE BAY TO THE WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE WED NIGHT...THEN DISSIPATE OVER THE EASTERN GULF THU WHILE THE PORTION N OF 28N MOVES E OF AREA. THE ECMWF IS FAST WITH MOVING THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE GULF. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE NW GULF THU NIGHT. A WEAK INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH WILL TRACK WESTWARD OVER THE FAR SE WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT AS DEPICTED BY THE LATEST NAM GUIDANCE...AND TO THE CENTRAL WATERS S OF ABOUT 27N MON AND MON NIGHT BEFORE DAMPENING OUT. A TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND RIDGING TO ITS N WILL HELP SUPPORT THE 15-20 KT WINDS IN THE FAR SE GULF AND STRAITS OF FLORIDA THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING TO 10-15 KT TUE. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: 0000 UTC GFS BLEND WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WINDS. FOR WAVEHEIGHTS USED BLEND OF 0000 UTC MWW3 WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL ALONG WITH TAFB NWPS WAVE PARAMETERS... EXCEPT IN THE NW PORTION S OF CUBA WHERE LIKE YESTERDAY THE ECMWF GUIDANCE WAS USED DUE TO ITS BETTER HANDLE OF SEAS THERE. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM NW HAITI SW TO JAMAICA SW TO 16N81W AND TO 11N83W. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN IT AND STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDING SE FRONT THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE NW CARIBBEAN IS AGAIN INDUCING A SWATH OF FRESH NE WINDS TO THE LEE OF CUBA BEHIND THE FRONT. THESE WINDS WERE CAPTURED BY THE 0214 UTC ASCAT PASS. SEAS PRODUCED BY THESE WINDS ARE IN THE 8-9 FT RANGE. THESE SEAS ARE HANDLED BETTER BY THE ECMWF WAVES COMPARED TO THE OTHER WAVE GUIDANCE. A SMALL PATCH OF FRESH NE WINDS SEEN IN THE ASCAT DATA IS OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE WINDWARD PASSAGE IN THE ASCAT DATA. A SHIP THAT RECENTLY CROSSED THE PASSAGE FROM SW TO NE REPORTED SIMILAR WINDS. ASCAT DATA INDICATED MAINLY MODERATE E WINDS THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC ZONES. THE EXCEPTION IS ELSEWHERE NW OF THE STATIONARY FRONT WHERE MODERATE TO FRESH N-NE WINDS ARE NOTED. THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL WEAKEN FURTHER TODAY...THEN BECOME DIFFUSE TONIGHT AND MON. THE WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BECOME MODERATE TO FRESH ON MON...AND NE-E LIGHT TO MODERATE TUE AND WED AT WHICH TIME THE PRES GRADIENT WILL HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY SLACKEN ACROSS THE NW AND N CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. SEAS AT THAT TIME ARE FORECAST TO BE RATHER LOW THERE PER WAVEWATCH AND NWPS OUTPUT...IN THE 3-4 FT RANGE SUBSIDING TO 2-3 FT TUE NIGHT AND WED. THE FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS WILL CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH WED THEN DIMINISH THU WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS IN THE 25-30 KT RANGE WITHIN ABOUT 60-90 NM OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 8-11 FT IN THE AREA OF MAXIMUM WINDS. MOSTLY MODERATE E TRADES WILL PERSIST ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: 0000 UTC GFS/MWW3 BLEND WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WINDS THROUGH TUE...THEN USED A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND GFS. FOR WAVEHEIGHTS USED BLEND OF 0000 UTC GFS WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL THROUGH TUE...THEN A GFS/ECMWF TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUE...THEN MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 26N65W SW TO NW HAITI AT 06Z. A TROUGH BEHIND THE FRONT EXTENDS FROM 28N65W TO THE SE BAHAMAS. STRONG HIGH PRES IS BUILDING EASTWARD BEHIND THE TROUGH. AN ASCAT PASS FROM 0215 UTC INDICATED MODERATE NW-N WINDS W OF THE FRONT AND TROUGH TO 75W...AND GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS W OF 75W. GENTLE TO MODERATE E-SE WINDS ARE SE OF THE FRONT. BUOY OBSERVATIONS ARE SHOWING SEAS IN THE 7-9 FT RANGE FROM NW SWELL N OF 29N BETWEEN 52W-65W. SEAS ELSEWHERE NE OF THE OF THE BAHAMAS ARE 4-6 FT. SEAS ARE 1-2 FT SW OF THE BAHAMAS. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MERGE WITH THE FRONT TODAY...THEN DISSIPATE MON OVER THE FAR SE WATERS AS HIGH PRES FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO SLIDES EASTWARD ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN WATERS. A TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE ASSOCIATED RIDGE AXIS AND THE DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL ALLOW FOR MOSTLY FRESH NE WINDS TO DEVELOP IN THE SE PORTION TONIGHT WITH SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 5-7 FT DIMINISHING SLIGHTLY ON MON. THE HIGH PRES BEHIND THE TROUGH WILL BECOME A RIDGE ALONG 30N BY TUE. THIS RIDGE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THU AND WEAKEN IN IN RESPONSE TO THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. SLY FLOW INCREASES IN THE NW PORTION TUE NIGHT AND WED ALONG WITH SEAS BUILDING UP TO AROUND 8 FT AHEAD OF THIS NEXT COLD FRONT. THE 000 UTC GFS DEVELOPS A LOW ON THE FRONT OVER THE FAR NW WATERS BY LATE ON THU WHILE ALSO BEING FASTER THAN THE REST OF GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE. A GFS/ECMWF BLEND WILL BE USED FOR TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT PERIODS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE NW PORTION IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE NW WATERS WED LATE IN THE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 27N THU. FRESH SE WINDS WILL PRECEDE THE FRONT N OF ABOUT 29N WITH SEAS MAXING NEAR 9 FT. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER AGUIRRE. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.