000 AGXX40 KNHC 271852 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 152 PM EST SAT FEB 27 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: 12Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WIND FORECAST THROUGH WED THEN WEIGHTED MORE TOWARD THE ECMWF. NWPS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WAVES. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH WED THEN MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. RIDGING CENTERED NEAR 30N WILL DOMINATE THE FLOW INTO TUE. THE 12Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF AGREE ON CARRYING THE FRONT OFFSHORE JUST AFTER 00Z WED. THE GFS HAS TRENDED TOWARD THE ECMWF BY SHOWING A WEAKER AND MORE POSITIVELY TILTED SYSTEM THAT QUICKLY MOVES THROUGH THE GULF. THEIR SOLUTIONS ARE NOW REASONABLY SIMILAR WITH THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THE FRONT. SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES ARISE ON THU WITH THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THE NEXT FRONT IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE GFS IS STRONGER AND SLOWER THAN THE 00Z ECMWFAND THE MODEL CONSENSUS WITH THE LOW N OF THE AREA AND THE GFS GENERATES 25 KT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW IN THE NW GULF BY THU MORNING THAT THE OTHER MODELS DO NOT CARRY. THE GEFS MEAN HINTS AT A SPLIT IN THE MEMBERS BETWEEN THIS SOLUTION AND A WEAKER/MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION LIKE THE ECMWF. THE ECMWF SOLUTION WAS FAVORED LATE IN THE PERIOD BECAUSE IT MORE CLOSELY RESEMBLED THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND HAD FULL SUPPORT FROM THE EC ENS MEAN. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: 12Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WIND FORECAST. NWPS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL WAVE FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE. BASED ON THE LATEST SCATTEROMETER PASSES...THE 00Z ECMWF IS WEAK BOTH WITH THE WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT STRETCHED FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO NE HONDURAS AS WELL AS OFFSHORE OF THE COLOMBIAN COAST. THE GFS LOOKS REASONABLE HERE AND GFS SEEMS TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OTHER MODELS AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT AS IT DRIFTS E ACROSS THE N CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THE GFS IS AMONG THE STRONGER SOLUTIONS WITH THE FUNNELING NE WINDS IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE SAT NIGHT AND SUN AFTER THE AFOREMENTIONED REINFORCING TROUGH MERGES WITH THE FRONT. THE STRONGER SOLUTION USUALLY PREVAILS IN THESE SCENARIOS. THE SEAS WERE BUMPED UP HERE COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST/NWPS BLEND TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LONG FETCH OF FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS THROUGH THE PASSAGE AND E OF JAMAICA. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SUN NIGHT. OTHERWISE...RIDGING TO THE N WILL DOMINATE FLOW ACROSS THE TROPICAL N ATLC THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. A PERSISTENT FRESH TO STRONG E-NE BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO HOVER OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA...AND INCREASE TO 30 KT IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS EVERYDAY WITH THE ASSISTANCE OF NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW. THE GFS GENERALLY PERFORMS BETTER UNDER THIS TYPE OF WIND REGIME BY CARRYING A STRONGER SOLUTION. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: 12Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF BLENDED WITH THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WIND FORECAST INCREASINGLY THROUGH TUE THEN WEIGHTED MORE TOWARD ECMWF THU. NWPS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS WAVE FORECAST THROUGH TUE...THEN MWW3/EC WAVE BLEND. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUE THEN MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FORECAST OF THE COLD FRONT STRETCHED FROM 30N65W TO E CUBA AND EXPECTED TO SHIFT INTO SE WATERS OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE REINFORCING TROUGH CATCHES UP WITH IT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH OVER FORECAST WATERS BEHIND THE FRONT BY SAT NIGHT. HIGH PRES WILL DOMINATE THE FLOW OVER THE REGION SUN AND MON AS IT SHIFTS E ALONG 31N...WITH FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS EXPECTED MON NIGHT AND TUE OVER WATERS S OF 24N. BY TUE NIGHT...S-SW FLOW WILL INCREASE OVER WESTERN WATERS IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO REACH THE NE FLORIDA COAST MIDDAY WED. THE 12Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THIS FRONT...BUT THE ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE GFS. A BLEND SEEMS REASONABLE AT THIS TIME. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER SCHAUER. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.