000 AGXX40 KNHC 261846 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 146 PM EST FRI FEB 26 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: 00Z ECMWF BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WIND FORECAST. NWPS/EC WAVE BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WAVES. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH MON THEN MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. OBSERVATIONS IN THE NE GULF TODAY HAVE SHOWN THAT ALL OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS UNDERESTIMATED THE WINDS AND SEAS BEHIND A REINFORCING TROUGH QUICKLY PASSING SE THROUGH THE GULF. THE 00Z ECMWF WAS THE STRONGEST MODEL HERE...SO IT WAS USED TO ADJUST WINDS EARLY AND THEN BUMPED UP A BIT MORE TO MATCH THE OBSERVATIONS. THE EC WAVE HAD SEAS CLOSE TO THE BUOY AND ALTIMETER OBSERVATIONS. BY SAT...THE QUICK MOVING TROUGH WILL BE SE OF THE GULF AND HIGH PRES JUST N OF THE AREA WILL DOMINATE THE FLOW. DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS COME INTO PLAY TUE WHEN A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TEXAS AND INTO THE NW GULF. THE 12Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF AGREE ON CARRYING THE FRONT OFFSHORE AROUND 00Z WED...BUT THE GFS IS STRONGER WITH THE WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT. THE 12Z UKMET AGREES WITH THE ECMWF BY CARRYING A LESS AMPLIFIED SYSTEM. THE GFS GENERATES GALES IN THE SW GULF BY 18Z WED WHILE THE ECMWF AND UKMET NEVER ALLOW THE FRONT TO GET S OF 25N. THE 06Z RUN OF THE GFS HAD BEEN EVEN STRONGER WITH THIS SYSTEM...SO IT IS TRENDING TOWARD THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE GEFS AND EC ENS MEANS WHICH HAVE CONSISTENTLY BEEN WEAKER. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: 00Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WIND FORECAST. NWPS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL WAVE FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS SLIGHTLY WEAK WITH THE WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT OVER THE CARIBBEAN FROM E CUBA TO THE BORDER OF HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA COMPARED TO THE LATEST ASCAT-B PASS. WINDS WERE INCREASED SLIGHTLY IN THIS AREA TO MATCH THE OBSERVATIONS. THE GFS SEEMS TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OTHER MODELS AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT AS IT DRIFTS E ACROSS THE N CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THE GFS IS AMONG THE STRONGER SOLUTIONS WITH THE FUNNELING NE WINDS IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE SAT NIGHT AND SUN AFTER THE AFOREMENTIONED REINFORCING TROUGH MERGES WITH THE FRONT. THE STRONGER SOLUTION USUALLY PREVAILS IN THESE SCENARIOS. THE SEAS WERE BUMPED UP HERE COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST/NWPS BLEND TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LONG FETCH OF FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS THROUGH THE PASSAGE AND E OF JAMAICA. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SUN NIGHT. OTHERWISE...RIDGING TO THE N WILL DOMINATE FLOW ACROSS THE TROPICAL N ATLC THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. A PERSISTENT FRESH TO STRONG E-NE BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO HOVER OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA...AND INCREASE TO 30 KT IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS EVERYDAY WITH THE ASSISTANCE OF NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW. THE GFS GENERALLY PERFORMS BETTER UNDER THIS TYPE OF WIND REGIME BY CARRYING A STRONGER SOLUTION. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: 00Z ECMWF BLENDED WITH THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WIND FORECAST INCREASINGLY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. NWPS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS WAVE FORECAST THROUGH MON...THEN THE EC WAVE ADDED TO THE BLEND. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. THE 00Z ECMWF AND 12Z GFS ARE BOTH WEAK WITH THE 30 KT WINDS SEEN BY THE 1524Z ASCAT-A PASS BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED REINFORCING TROUGH OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST AS WELL AS IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA S OF THE FLORIDA KEYS. WINDS WERE BUMPED UP IN BOTH LOCATIONS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE OBSERVATIONS. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FORECAST OF THE COLD FRONT STRETCHED FROM 30N65W TO E CUBA AND EXPECTED TO SHIFT INTO SE WATERS OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE REINFORCING TROUGH CATCHES UP WITH IT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH OVER FORECAST WATERS BEHIND THE FRONT BY SAT NIGHT. HIGH PRES WILL DOMINATE THE FLOW OVER THE REGION SUN AND MON AS IT SHIFTS E ALONG 31N...WITH FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS EXPECTED MON NIGHT AND TUE OVER WATERS S OF 24N. BY TUE NIGHT...S-SW FLOW WILL INCREASE OVER WESTERN WATERS IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO REACH THE NE FLORIDA COAST MIDDAY WED. AS EXPLAINED IN THE GULF OF MEXICO SECTION...THE 00Z ECMWF IS PREFERRED WITH THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THIS FRONT. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER SCHAUER. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.