000 AGXX40 KNHC 260748 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 248 AM EST FRI FEB 26 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: 0000 UTC GFS/MWW3 BLEND WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRES OF 1025 MB IS CENTERED IN THE NW GULF NEAR 27N96W. BOTH CURRENT BUOY OBSERVATIONS AND LATEST ASCAT DATA SHOW ANTICYCLONIC FLOW CONSISTING OF GENERALLY LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS THROUGHOUT... EXCEPT FOR HIGHER WINDS IN THE MODERATE RANGE NOTED IN THE NE GULF PORTION. THESE OBSERVATIONS ARE IN VERY AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST MODEL RUNS. THE BUOY OBSERVATIONS ALONG WITH RECENT ALTIMETER DATA REVEAL SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 4-6 FT WITHIN 140 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 30N86W TO 25N89W TO 19N95W. HIGHER SEAS OF 6-8 FT ARE SE OF THIS LINE...AND LOWER SEAS OF 1-3 FT ARE TO THE NW OF THE LINE. THE MODERATE WINDS IN THE NE GULF ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DIMINISH BY EARLY THIS EVENING AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS EASTWARD ACROSS THAT PART OF THE GULF. THIS FORECAST WILL HAVE VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS ONES AS LATEST GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD CONSENSUS. THE HIGH IN THE NW GULF WILL BE REINFORCED BY A HIGH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT...AND MOVE TO THE NE GULF BY LATE SAT NIGHT. THE HIGH WILL WEAKEN SUN THROUGH TUE. MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW IS EXPECTED IN THE WESTERN GULF SUN THROUGH TUE IN ADVANCE OF DEEPENING LOW PRES OVER THE PLAINS. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE NW GULF LATE TUE NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL MOST LIKELY BE PRECEDED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: 0000 UTC GFS/MWW3 BLEND WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE COLD FRONT THE PAST FEW DAYS NOW EXTENDS FROM E CENTRAL CUBA SW TO 17N83W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY SW TO INLAND NE HONDURAS. STRONG HIGH PRES IS BUILDING SE ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA BEHIND THE FRONT. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITHIN 120 NM NW OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THESE CLOUDS CONTAIN POSSIBLE EMBEDDED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AREAS OF RAIN. THE 0256 UTC ASCAT PASS NOTED MOSTLY MODERATE N-NE WINDS W OF THE FRONT TO 85W AND N OF 20N. BUOY 42056 AT 20N85W IS REPORTING NE 20 KT WINDS AND SEAS OF 6-8 FT WITH DOMINANT WAVE PERIOD OF 11 SEC. THE SAME ASCAT PASS REVEALED A SWATH OF FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS S OF 14N BETWEEN 74W- 77W. A RECENT SHIP REPORT FROM SHIP "DNCQ" REPORTED NE 25 KT WINDS NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. THE SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATED MAINLY MODERATE E WINDS THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN...EXCEPT FOR MODERATE TO FRESH N-NE WINDS ELSEWHERE NW OF THE COLD FRONT AND NE-E WIND DIRECTION THROUGH THE TROPICAL N ATLC ZONES. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE SE...AND EXTEND FROM EASTERN CUBA TO NE HONDURAS LATER THIS MORNING...FROM NEAR THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO 17N80W TO NE HONDURAS EARLY THIS EVENING AND STALL DURING TONIGHT AND BEGIN TO WEAKEN INTO SAT NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL THEN SLOWLY BECOME DIFFUSE THROUGH LATE SUN. THE WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH EARLY ON SAT...THEN DIMINISH BRIEFLY SAT AFTERNOON BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY ON SUN WITH FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NE WINDS MATERIALIZING IN THE LEE OF CUBA AND ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE REGION. THE NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH SUN NIGHT BEFORE BECOMING MODERATE TO FRESH ON MON...AND NE-E LIGHT TO MODERATE TUE BY WHICH TIME THE PRES GRADIENT WILL HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY SLACKEN ACROSS THE NW AND N CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. SEAS AT THAT TIME ARE FORECAST TO BE RATHER LOW THERE PER MWW3 GUIDANCE...IN THE 3-4 FT RANGE. THE FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS IN THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WILL PULSE...PARTICULARLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS IN THE 25-30 KT RANGE WITHIN ABOUT 60-90 NM OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 8-10 FT IN THE AREA OF MAXIMUM WINDS. MOSTLY MODERATE E TRADES WILL PERSIST ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: 000 UTC GFS/MWW3 BLEND WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N67W SW TO 25N73W AND TO E CENTRAL CUBA AT 06Z. THE SYNOPTIC ANALYSIS ALSO DEPICTS STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDING EASTWARD BEHIND THE FRONT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 180 NM W OF THE FRONT. PARTIAL ASCAT DATA FROM 0116 UTC AND 0256 UTC LAST NIGHT SHOWED FRESH TO STRONG W-NW WINDS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN WATERS N OF 29N W OF THE FRONT TO ABOUT 77W AND ALSO N OF 27N W OF 77W. WINDS ELSEWHERE W OF THE FRONT ARE MODERATE NW-N IN DIRECTION...AND TO THE SE OF THE FRONT WINDS ARE LIGHT TO MODERATE E-SE IN DIRECTION EXCEPT FOR S-S WINDS N OF 25N. THE BUOY OBSERVATIONS ALONG WITH RECENT ALTIMETER DATA PASSES REVEALED SEAS IN THE 5-6 FT E AND SE OF THE FRONT...AND SEAS OF 7-10 FT NW OF THE FRONT EXCEPT FOR LOWER SEAS OF 1-3 FT N OF 27N W OF 78W...AND S OF 27N W OF BAHAMAS. HIGHER SEAS OF 6-8 FT ARE IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE E REACHING FROM NEAR 29N65W TO VICINITY WINDWARD PASSAGE EARLY THIS EVENING AND STALL ON SAT. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN OVER THE SE WATERS ON SAT FROM NEAR 25N65W TO NEAR NW HAITI AND WINDWARD PASSAGE. BY LATE SUN AFTERNOON...THE REMNANT FRONTAL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE JUST E OF THE FAR SE PART OF THE FORECAST WATERS. THE SEAS OF 7-10 FT BEHIND THE FRONT WILL MIGRATE SE TO MOSTLY ZONE 113 TONIGHT AS A POST-FRONTAL TROUGH SWINGS SE ACROSS THE NW AND N CENTRAL WATERS. THESE SEAS THEN QUICKLY SHIFT TO NE OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SAT AS THE TROUGH LIFTS NE. IN THE WAKE OF THIS TROUGH...HIGH PRES WILL GRADUALLY BUILD EASTWARD ACROSS THE BASIN THROUGH SUN AND INTO MON WITH THE PARENT HIGH CENTER OF 1024-1025 MB QUICKLY SHIFTING EASTWARD ALONG 30N REACHING TO NEAR 30N67W ON TUE. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...MAINLY NE-E MODERATE WINDS ARE EXPECTED E OF THE BAHAMAS S OF 27N...AND GENTLE E WINDS N OF 27N WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LIGHT SE-S WINDS IN THE NW PORTION. WINDS MAY BE FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS S OF ABOUT 24N BETWEEN 68W-75W STARTING SUN NIGHT. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE RANGE OF 5-7 FT E OF THE BAHAMAS...AND 3-5 FT N OF 27N. LOWER SEAS OF 1-3 FT ARE EXPECTED SW OF THE BAHAMAS EXCEPT FOR 4-6 FT W OF 79W INCLUDING THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. THESE SEAS BUILD TO 7 FT LATE ON TUE AS THE PRES GRADIENT INCREASES BEHIND A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH THAT MOVES FROM E TO W ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN WATERS AND THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER AGUIRRE. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.