000 AGXX40 KNHC 251818 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 118 PM EST THU FEB 25 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: 1200 UTC GFS/MWW3 BLEND WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED EAST OF THE BASIN WITH A 1025 MB HIGH CENTERED ACROSS THE NW GULF NEAR 27N97W PROVIDING INFLUENCE ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN THIS AFTERNOON. RECENT SCATTEROMETER AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE MODERATE TO FRESH NW TO N WINDS. SEAS CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE FROM 7 TO 10 FT ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF TO AN EXPECTED 4 TO 8 FT LATER THIS EVENING AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE NW GULF OVERNIGHT AS A WEAK FRONTAL TROUGH SKIRTS THE NORTH-CENTRAL AND NE GULF WATERS THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH A PROGRESSIVE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. A SMALL AREA OF FRESH TO OCCASIONAL STRONG NW WINDS IS FORECAST AS THE ENERGY MOVES QUICKLY INTO THE ATLC BY LATE FRI. AS THIS OCCURS...THE HIGH WILL BECOME REINFORCED FRI AND SLIDE EAST ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND RESULTING IN GRADUAL VEERING OF THE WINDS TO E-SE BY SUN. MODERATE TO OCCASIONAL FRESH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW IS EXPECTED SUN THROUGH MON NIGHT DUE TO THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND A WEAKENING FRONTAL SYSTEM ACROSS EASTERN TEXAS. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: 1200 UTC GFS/MWW3 BLEND WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN FROM CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 22N81W TO THE CENTRAL COAST OF HONDURAS. SCATTEROMETER DATA AND A FEW SHIP OBSERVATIONS INDICATE FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT...STRONGEST IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS. THE FRONT WILL MOVE SE AND EXTEND FROM EASTERN CUBA TO NE HONDURAS FRI...FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO NEAR 15N80W SAT...AND FROM HISPANIOLA TO THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR 12N83W BY SUN WHILE GRADUALLY WEAKENING. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT INCREASE SLIGHTLY AGAIN TONIGHT INTO FRI AS HIGH PRES STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. BY FRI...FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NE WINDS WILL MATERIALIZE IN THE LEE OF CUBA AND ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE REGION. THE NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MON BEFORE BECOMING MODERATE TO FRESH MON NIGHT. FRESH TO STRONG TRADES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...PARTICULARLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS IN THE 25-30 KT RANGE WITHIN ABOUT 60 NM OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 8-10 FT IN THE AREA OF MAXIMUM WINDS. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES WILL PERSIST ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: 1200 UTC GFS/MWW3 BLEND WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N75W THROUGH THE NW BAHAMAS TO THE WESTERN CUBA COAST NEAR 23N80W. WHILE MOST ACTIVE CONVECTION HAS SHIFTED NORTH OF THE AREA...FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE NOTED ON BOTH SIDES OF THE FRONT PER RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE EAST REACHING FROM 31N66W TO THE SE BAHAMAS AND EASTERN CUBA FRI...FROM 25N65W TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE SAT...AND FROM 22N65W TO HISPANIOLA BY SUN. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO 10 FT GENERALLY N OF 28N AND GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT UNTIL A WEAK FRONTAL TROUGH SKIRTS THE NORTHERN ZONES LATE THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT BUILDING SEAS BACK INTO A RANGE OF 10-11 FT THROUGH SUNRISE ON SAT. THEREAFTER...HIGH PRES WILL GRADUALLY BUILD E ACROSS THE SW N ATLC DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND INTO MON WITH MAINLY MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA WITH SEAS RANGING 3 TO 6 FT OUTSIDE THE BAHAMAS. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER HUFFMAN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.