000 AGXX40 KNHC 241944 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 244 PM EST WED FEB 24 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: 1200 UTC GFS/MWW3 BLEND WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. A STRONG COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE QUICKLY EAST OVER THE EASTERN GULF...EXTENDING FROM 30N83W TO 20N89W WITH A PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE FROM NEAR FORT MYERS FLORIDA TO 25N85W. STRONG TO GALE FORCE WINDS ARE OVER THE NE GULF BEHIND THE FRONT WITH FRESH TO NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF W OF THE FRONT. FRESH TO STRONG S TO SW WINDS ARE SE OF THE FRONT. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALONG THE SQUALL LINE. SEAS RANGE FROM NEAR 8 FT ALONG THE FRONT TO NEAR 13 FT OVER THE CENTRAL GULF...TAPERING OFF TO NEAR 7 FT TOWARD THE NW GULF. THE HIGH SEAS WILL SHIFT EAST WITH THE FRONT AND STRONGER WINDS THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE OVERALL SEA HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS THE WINDS OVER THE GULF ALSO DECREASE. THE GALE FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST OVER THE NE GULF THROUGH THE EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING BELOW GALE FORCE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO GALE FORCE WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THE COLD FRONT AND SQUALL LINE WILL EXIT THE EASTERN GULF OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SE TOWARD TEXAS OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. THIS WILL SUPPORT MODERATE TO FRESH NW TO N WINDS OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS OVER THE WESTERN GULF FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE HIGH WILL SLIDE EAST ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHICH WILL RESULT IN GRADUAL VEERING OF THE WINDS TO E TO SE BY SUNDAY. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: 1200 UTC GFS/MWW3 BLEND WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A 1426 UTC SCATTEROMETER PASS SHOWED FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS S OF 14N N OF THE COLOMBIA COAST OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ARE OCCURRING OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN TODAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE NW CARIBBEAN WILL ENTER THE CARIBBEAN THIS EVENING WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE SE AND EXTEND FROM NEAR THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO THE COAST OF NICARAGUA BY FRIDAY. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE IN THE FRESH TO STRONG RANGE...WHICH WILL HELP BUILD SEAS TO 8 FEET ACROSS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...THEN SE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WATERS BETWEEN 81W AND 86W. THE WINDS WILL DECREASE TO MODERATE TO FRESH BY SUNDAY OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WITH SEAS SUBSIDING BELOW 8 FT. THE FRESH TO STRONG TRADES N OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE FROM FRESH TO FRESH TO STRONG...WITH SEAS NEARING 9 FT AT TIMES N OF THE COLOMBIA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES WILL PERSIST ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: 1200 UTC GFS/MWW3 BLEND WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. STRONG RETURN FLOW HAS DEVELOPED W OF 77W N OF 28N BETWEEN CENTRAL ATLC RIDGING AND A COLD FRONT OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. PRE-FRONTAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THIS SAME AREA. THE COLD FRONT OVER THE GULF IS MOVING RAPIDLY EASTWARD AND WILL EMERGE OVER THE ATLC WATERS E OF THE FLORIDA COAST LATE THIS EVENING AND THEN FROM 30N68W TO 20N75W BY THURSDAY EVENING. DURING THIS TIME PERIOD FRESH TO STRONG S TO SW WINDS ARE FORECAST MAINLY N OF 28 N WITHIN A FEW HUNDRED NM E OF THE FRONT WITH SEAS TO 9 FT. BEHIND THE FRONT N OF 28N...FRESH TO STRONG W TO NW WINDS ARE FORECAST WITH GUSTS TO NEAR GALE FORCE EXTENDING FROM THE FRONT WEST TO THE FLORIDA EAST COAST. SEAS TO 12 FT ARE FORECAST WITH THE HIGHEST SEAS ALONG 31N. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE EAST TO NEAR 31N62W TO 20N71W BY FRIDAY EVENING. BY THIS TIME THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL HAVE SHIFTED TO THE NORTH OF OUR AREA OF DISCUSSION...WITH WINDS UNDER 25 KT AND SEAS SUBSIDING TO LESS THAN 10FT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST OVER THE WEEKEND AND THE W ATLC BY SUNDAY EVENING BEFORE REACHING BERMUDA ON MONDAY. MAINLY MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS WILL RESIDE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE RIDGE AXIS WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS ELSEWHERE. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ015...NE GULF N OF 25N E OF 87W... GALE WARNING TODAY INTO TONIGHT. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER LATTO. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.