000 AGXX40 KNHC 240748 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 243 AM EST WED FEB 24 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: 00 UTC GFS/MWW3 BLEND WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS THE GULF WATERS FOLLOWED BY GALE FORCE WINDS. IT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM SE LOUISIANA TO JUST N OF TAMPICO MEXICO...WITH A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AHEAD OF IT EXTENDING FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR PANAMA CITY TO 25N88W. THE FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEPENING LOW PRES OVER NORTHERN LOUISIANA. FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE NOTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAINLY N OF 26N. THE COLD FRONT IS ON TRACK TO RAPIDLY PROGRESS ACROSS THE GULF WATERS REACHING A POSITION FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND TO THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE EARLY TODAY... AND FROM NEAR TAMPA BAY TO INLAND THE NE YUCATAN PENINSULA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL PUSH SE OF THE AREA BY THIS EVENING. A BAND OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED STRONG TSTMS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL PRECEDE THE FRONT. A RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASS PROVIDE OBSERVATIONS OF NW WINDS IN THE 30-35 KT RANGE BEHIND THE FRONT N OF 26N. THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST OVER THE N CENTRAL GULF WATERS THROUGH EARLY TODAY AS WELL AS OVER THE FAR NORTHERN PORTION OF THE NE GULF. AS HIGHLIGHTED IN PREVIOUS FORECASTS...GALE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN POSTED FOR THE AFFECTED ZONES BEHIND THE FRONT. AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE SE ACROSS THE GULF REGION...MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS THE WEST-CENTRAL AND SW GULF ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE BY 00Z THU ALL AFFECTED ZONES. S-SW WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 20-30 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WINDS WILL FURTHER DIMINISH ON THU AND FRI AS HIGH PRES SETTLES OVER THE NW GULF. FRESH NW WINDS WILL LINGER SOME IN THE NE GULF THU AND THU EVENING BEFORE BECOMING MODERATE FROM THE N ON FRI. AS THE HIGH PRES SHIFTS EASTWARD FRI AND SAT...SE RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP IN THE FAR WESTERN PORTION. BY SUN...THE HIGH CENTER IS FORECAST TO BE LOCATED OVER THE FAR NE GULF WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SW TO CENTRAL TEXAS. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND A FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND W TEXAS WILL HELP INCREASE THE SLY WINDS INTO SUN WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 6-7 FT. WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT SEAS WILL BUILD TO 8-11 FT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. BEHIND THE FRONT...SEAS ARE FORECAST TO REACH A RANGE OF 9-12 FT NW GULF AND 10-13 FT N CENTRAL AND NE GULF WITH SEAS OF 8-12 FT IN THE W CENTRAL AND SW GULF ZONES. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 FT ALL ZONE LATE THU NIGHT OR EARLY ON FRI. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: 00 UTC GFS/MWW3 BLEND WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE. RECENT ASCAT DATA AND A FEW SHIP OBSERVATIONS SHOWED FRESH TO STRONG NE-E WINDS IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. SE WINDS WITH SIMILAR WIND SPEEDS ARE ALSO NOTED ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN W OF 85W...INCLUDING THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. ELSEWHERE...TRADE WINDS ARE MODERATE TO FRESH. CURRENT BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOW SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 4-6 FT...EXCEPT FOR HIGHER SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 8-10 FT S OF 14N BETWEEN 74W-77W...AND 8-9 FT ATTRIBUTED TO A NE SWELL IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC ZONES. THIS WEATHER PATTERN IS FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN BETWEEN ATLC RIDGE AND LOWER PRES ASSOCIATED WITH THE GULF OF MEXICO FRONTAL SYSTEM MAKING HEADWAY INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN. BEYOND WED NIGHT...EXPECT FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH SUN...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WHERE SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD TO 9-10 FT. MODELS REMAIN IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE ABOVE MENTIONED GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW CARIBBEAN EARLY TONIGHT...AND WEAKEN AS IT REACHES FROM NEAR EASTERN CUBA TO NE HONDURAS BY EARLY THU EVENING. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SLIGHTLY DIMINISH ON THU...BUT WILL INCREASE AGAIN ON FRI AS HIGH PRES STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF. BY FRI NIGHT...EXPECT FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NE WINDS IN THE LEE OF CUBA AND ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY SUN. A TRADE WIND FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MODERATE RANGE MOST ZONES...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AS MENTIONED ABOVE. LARGE LONG PERIOD NE SWELL AFFECTING THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS AND NE CARIBBEAN PASSAGES WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THU. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: 00 UTC GFS/MWW3 BLEND WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. A RIDGE DOMINATES THE FORECAST AREA WHILE A FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 26N65W TO JUST N OF THE SE BAHAMAS AS DEPICTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE DATA. THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE LATER TODAY. WINDS ARE ON INCREASE ACROSS THE NW WATERS. THE MOST RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATE SOUTHERLY WINDS IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE N OF 27N W OF 77W. BUOY 41010 INDICATES SEAS TO 9 FT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THESE WINDS. MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY WINDS ARE WITHIN AROUND 90 NM N OF THE FRONTAL TROUGH. SE-S GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ARE W OF THE BAHAMAS...AND GENERALLY MODERATE E-SE WINDS ELSEWHERE. BUOY OBSERVATIONS REVEALED SEA IN THE 6-8 FT NE OF THE BAHAMAS S OF 27N. THESE SEAS ARE MAINLY DUE TO A NE SWELL... BUT WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE FORECASTS THEM TO SUBSIDE TODAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE NW WATERS TODAY AHEAD OF THE GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST THIS EVENING. THE FRONT WILL QUICKLY MOVE EASTWARD AND REACH FROM 31N68W TO THE SE BAHAMAS AND EASTERN CUBA BY THU EVENING...AND FROM 27N65W TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE BY FRI EVENING. STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS WITH RAPIDLY BUILDING SEAS WILL FOLLOW THE COLD FRONT N OF 27N TONIGHT INTO THU. FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH WINDS GUSTING TO GALE FORCE JUST N OF THE AREA. A BAND OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED STRONG TSTMS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF FRONT. WINDS AND SEAS N OF 27N WILL DIMINISH SOME THU NIGHT INTO FRI...AND FURTHER SAT THROUGH SUN AS HIGH PRES RIDGES EASTWARD OVER THE AREA FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD TO 8-11 FT AHEAD AND BEHIND THE FRONT. THEN WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST ON FRI. BY SUN...WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE IS FORECAST SEAS ON THE RATHER LOW SIDE OF 3-5 FT E AND NE OF THE BAHAMAS WITH A POSSIBLE PATCH OF 5-7 FT SEAS IN THE FAR E CENTRAL WATERS. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LOWER... IN THE 1-3 FT RANGE SW OF THE BAHAMAS. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ013...N CENTRAL GULF INCLUDING FLOWER GARDEN BANKS MARINE SANCTUARY... GALE WARNING EARLY TODAY. .GMZ017...W CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N W OF 94W... GALE WARNING EARLY TODAY. .GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... GALE WARNING TODAY. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER GR. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.