000 AGXX40 KNHC 231945 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 245 PM EST TUE FEB 23 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: FOR WINDS USED GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. FOR WAVE HEIGHTS USED BLEND OF 12 UTC MWW3 ALONG WITH A PERCENTAGE OF TAFB NWPS PARAMETERS WITH WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE...EXCEPT MEDIUM CONFIDENCE TONIGHT AND WED. WEAK RIDGE IS PRESENT ACROSS THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL WATERS. THE ASSOCIATED GRADIENT IS PRODUCING MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE E-SE WINDS THROUGHOUT. THE BUOY OBSERVATIONS ARE REPORTING SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 4-5 FT...EXCEPT FOR LOWER SEAS OF 1-3 FT IN THE FAR N AND SE PORTIONS. A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED TO JUST ALONG THE TEXAS COAST WITH A PRE- FRONTAL TROUGH AHEAD OF IT EXTENDING FROM SW LOUISIANA TO JUST E OF BROWNSVILLE. THE FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH DEEPENING LOW PRES OVER NE TEXAS. THE LOW QUICKLY MOVE NE TO NORTHERN LOUISIANA AND INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BY WED AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE INCREASING OVER THE NW PORTION AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT IS ON TRACK TO RAPIDLY PROGRESS ACROSS THE GULF WITH IT FIRST REACHING A POSITION FROM NEAR S CENTRAL LOUISIANA TO NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO EARLY TONIGHT...THEN FROM NEAR PANAMA CITY FLORIDA TO 25N88W TO EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE EARLY ON WED...AND FROM NEAR TAMPA BAY TO INLAND THE NE YUCATAN PENINSULA EARLY WED AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL PUSH SE OF THE AREA BY EARLY WED NIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE STRONG TSTMS WITH WINDS POSSIBLY GUSTING TO GALE FORCE WILL PRECEDE THE FRONT. STRONG TO GALE WARNING FORCE NW-N WINDS ARE LIKELY OVER THE NORTHWEST AND N CENTRAL GULF WATERS TONIGHT INTO WED AND FOR THE FAR NORTHERN PORTION OF THE NE GULF WED. AS HIGHLIGHTED IN PREVIOUS FORECASTS...GALE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN POSTED FOR THE AFFECTED ZONES BEHIND THE FRONT AS THE EVOLVING SYNOPTIC PATTERN CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT THESE CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AS WELL AS LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH BELOW GALE WARNING FORCE BY 00Z THU ALL AFFECTED ZONES. S-SW WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 20-30 KT WILL PRECEDED THE FRONT WITH POSSIBLE OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO GALE FORCE. THE MORNING ISSUANCE OF THE FORECAST WAS RECENTLY UPDATED TO REFLECT THE INCREASE OF SLY 20-30 KT WINDS FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF THE NE GULF ZONE A LITTLE SOONER THAN ANTICIPATED FOR TONIGHT ALONG WITH BUILDING SEAS THERE. WINDS WILL FURTHER DIMINISH ON THU AND FRI AS HIGH PRES SETTLES OVER THE NW GULF. FRESH NW WINDS WILL LINGER SOME IN THE NE GULF THU AND THU EVENING BEFORE BECOMING MODERATE FROM THE N ON FRI. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD FRI AND SAT...SE RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP IN THE FAR WESTERN PORTION. BY SUN...THE HIGH CENTER IS FORECAST TO BE LOCATED OVER THE FAR NE GULF PORTION WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SW TO CENTRAL TEXAS. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND A FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND W TEXAS WILL HELP INCREASE THE SLY WINDS INTO SUN WITH SEAS BUILDING TO AROUND 7 FT. WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT SEAS WILL BUILD TO 8-11 FT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. BEHIND THE FRONT...SEAS ARE FORECAST TO REACH A RANGE OF 9-12 FT NW GULF AND 10-14 FT N CENTRAL AND NE GULF WITH SEAS OF 8-12 FT IN THE W CENTRAL AND SW GULF ZONE. SEAS SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 FT ALL ZONE LATE THU NIGHT OR EARLY ON FRI. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: 12 UTC GFS/MWW3 BLEND WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE. ASCAT DATA FROM THIS MORNING SHOWED FRESH NE-E WINDS IN THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND NEAR THE E EDGE OF THE GULF OF HONDURAS. ELSEWHERE...TRADE WINDS ARE MODERATE TO FRESH BETWEEN 68W AND 80W AND GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ELSEWHERE. LATEST AND CURRENT BUOY OBSERVATIONS ALONG WITH ALTIMETER DATA SHOW SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 4-6 FT...EXCEPT FOR HIGHER SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 8-10 FT S OF 14N BETWEEN 74W-77W...AND 8-9 FT ATTRIBUTED TO A NE SWELL IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC ZONES. THE FRESH NE-E WINDS IN THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ARE FORECAST TO NOT CHANGE TONIGHT INTO WED NIGHT AS THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN DUE TO THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENING BETWEEN ATLC RIDGING AND LOWER PRES ASSOCIATED WITH THE GULF OF MEXICO FRONTAL SYSTEM MAKING HEADWAY INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN. BEYOND WED NIGHT...THESE WINDS CONTINUE TO PULSE AT FRESH INTENSITY KEEPING THE SEAS OF 9-10 FT NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA THROUGH SUN. MODELS REMAIN IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE ABOVE MENTIONED GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW CARIBBEAN EARLY WED NIGHT...AND WEAKEN AS IT REACHES FROM NEAR EASTERN CUBA TO NE HONDURAS BY EARLY THU EVENING. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH EARLY ON THU. TRADE WIND FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MODERATE RANGE MOST ZONES...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AS MENTIONED ABOVE. FRESH NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE BY LATE SAT..AND CONTINUE INTO SUN. LARGE LONG PERIOD NE SWELL AFFECTING THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS AND NE CARIBBEAN PASSAGES WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THU. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: FOR WINDS USED GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. FOR WAVE HEIGHTS USED BLEND OF 12 UTC MWW3 ALONG WITH A PERCENTAGE OF TAFB NWPS PARAMETERS WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRES OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS IS WEAKENING WHILE IT GRADUALLY SHIFTS EASTWARD THROUGH WED. THE TAIL END OF THE CENTRAL ATLC STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 25N65W TO JUST N OF THE NE PORTION HISPANIOLA AS DEPICTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND NICELY HIGHLIGHTED BY THE 1146 UTC ASCAT PASS. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL WEAKEN TO A TROUGH AS IT TRACKS WESTWARD TO THE SE BAHAMAS BY EARLY WED THEN DISSIPATE DURING WED AFTERNOON. THE 1446 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWED SE-S MODERATE WINDS W OF THE BAHAMAS...AND GENERALLY MODERATE E-SE WINDS ELSEWHERE. THE OBSERVATIONS FROM BUOYS ALONG WITH AN ALTIMETER PASS REVEALED SEA IN THE 6-8 FT E OF THE BAHAMAS S OF 27N. THESE SEAS ARE MAINLY DUE TO A NE SWELL...BUT WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE FORECASTS THEM TO SUBSIDE TONIGHT AND WED. MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE NW WATERS TODAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRES SHIFTS EASTWARD. MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE NW WATERS THROUGH WED AS LOW PRES RAPIDLY DEEPENS OVER TEXAS AND TRACKS NE TO WELL TO NW OF THE REGION. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW AND HIGH PRES WILL ALLOW FOR SOUTHERLY WINDS TO INCREASE OVER THE NW WATERS THROUGH WED. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL MOVE OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST EARLY WED NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL QUICKLY MOVE EASTWARD AND REACH FROM 31N69W TO THE SE BAHAMAS BY LATE THU...AND STALL FROM 28N65W TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE SAT. STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS WITH RAPIDLY BUILDING SEAS WILL FOLLOW THE COLD FRONT N OF 27N WED NIGHT INTO THU FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH WINDS GUSTING TO GALE WARNING FORCE JUST N OF THE AREA. A BAND OF STRONG TSTMS...LIKELY IN LINES...WITH GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF FRONT. WINDS AND SEAS N OF 27N DIMINISH SOME THU NIGHT INTO FRI...AND FURTHER SAT THROUGH SUN AS HIGH PRES RIDGES EASTWARD OVER THE AREA FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. BY SUN...WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE IS FORECAST SEAS ON THE RATHER LOW SIDE OF 3-5 FT E AND NE OF THE BAHAMAS WITH A POSSIBLE PATCH OF 5-7 FT SEAS IN THE FAR E CENTRAL WATERS. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LOWER...IN THE 1-3 FT RANGE SW OF THE BAHAMAS AND N-NW OF THE BAHAMAS. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ011...NW GULF INCLUDING STETSON BANK... GALE WARNING TONIGHT INTO WED. .GMZ013...N CENTRAL GULF INCLUDING FLOWER GARDEN BANKS MARINE SANCTUARY... GALE WARNING TONIGHT INTO WED. .GMZ017...W CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N W OF 94W... GALE WARNING TONIGHT INTO WED. .GMZ019...CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N BETWEEN 87W AND 94W... GALE WARNING WED. .GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... GALE WARNING WED. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER AGUIRRE. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.