000 AGXX40 KNHC 230757 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 257 AM EST TUE FEB 23 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: 00 UTC GFS/MWW3 BLEND WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE...EXCEPT MEDIUM CONFIDENCE TUE NIGHT... AND WED. WEAK RIDGE IS PRESENT ACROSS THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL WATERS. THE ASSOCIATED GRADIENT IS PRODUCING MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE E-SE WINDS THROUGHOUT. SEAS ARE GENERALLY UNDER 5 FT BASED ON BUOY OBSERVATIONS. AREAS OF FOG ARE NOTED OVER THE NW GULF UNDER A GENTLE TO MODERATE SE FLOW. THE FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BY MID MORNING. A STATIONARY FRONT JUST INLAND ACROSS THE TEXAS COAST WILL LIFT BACK N AS A WARM FRONT TODAY. THE PATTERN WILL START TO CHANGE LATER TODAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT ENTERS THE GULF WATERS. THIS FRONT WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEPENING LOW PRES MOVING TODAY FROM THE CENTRAL TEXAS COAST TO NORTHERN LOUISIANA AND INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BY WED. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS THE NW WATERS LATE THIS MORNING AND REACH NEAR GALE FORCE AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATE TODAY. THE FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST LATE TODAY...REACHING FROM SE LOUISIANA TO NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO TONIGHT...FROM NEAR TAMPA BAY TO THE NE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE EARLY WED AFTERNOON...AND SWEEP SE OF THE AREA BY EARLY WED NIGHT. A BAND OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED STRONG TSTMS AND GUSTY WINDS IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT. STRONG TO GALE FORCE NW-N WINDS ARE LIKELY OVER THE NORTHWEST AND N CENTRAL GULF WATERS TONIGHT INTO WED. GALE FORCE NW-N WINDS ARE ALSO LIKELY W OF 95W FOR ZONE GM017 AND FOR ZONE GMZ023 BY WED. GALE WARNINGS HAVE ALREADY BEEN ISSUED FOR THOSE ZONES AS 34 KT WIND PROBABILITIES FROM BOTH THE SREF AND GFS MEAN ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO BE ON THE HIGH SIDE. PROBABILITIES ARE LOW FOR ZONE GMZ015...BUT DECIDE TO CONSIDER MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THAT ZONE ON WED MORNING DUE TO A THIGH PRES GRADIENT. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE BY 00Z THU ALL AFFECTED ZONES. WINDS WILL FURTHER DIMINISH ON THU AND FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE NW GULF. FRESH NW WINDS WILL LINGER SOME IN THE NE GULF THU AND THU EVENING BEFORE BECOMING MODERATE FROM THE N ON FRI. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD FRI AND SAT...SE RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP IN THE FAR WESTERN PORTION. WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT SEAS WILL BUILD TO 8-11 FT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. BEHIND THE FRONT...SEAS ARE FORECAST TO REACH A RANGE OF 9-12 FT NW GULF AND 10-15 FT N CENTRAL AND NE GULF WITH SEAS OF 8-12 FT IN THE WEST CENTRAL AND SW GULF ZONE. SEAS SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 FT ALL ZONE LATE THU NIGHT OR EARLY ON FRI. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: 00 UTC GFS/MWW3 BLEND WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE. WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED ACROSS THE BASIN COMPARED WITH THE PREVIOUS DAYS. THE MOST RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASSES INDICATED FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS BETWEEN 68W AND 80W AND GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ELSEWHERE. SEAS ARE GENERALLY BELOW 8 FT BASED ON BUOYS OBSERVATIONS AND AN ALTIMETER PASS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SEAS AROUND 8 FT NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. BY TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING...EXPECT SOME INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS ACROSS THE WATERS S OF 15N BETWEEN 64W AND 78W AS THE PRES GRADIENT SLIGHTLY TIGHTEN BETWEEN THE FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE ATLANTIC RIDGE. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 9-10 FT NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WITH THESE WINDS. MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE ABOVE MENTIONED GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW CARIBBEAN EARLY WED NIGHT...AND WEAKEN AS IT REACHES FROM NEAR EASTERN CUBA TO NE HONDURAS ON THU AFTERNOON. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH EARLY ON THU. TRADE WIND FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MODERATE RANGE MOST ZONES...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SW CARIBBEAN WHERE NE-E WINDS WILL PULSE TO FRESH INTENSITY WED THROUGH SAT. FRESH NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE BY LATE SAT. LARGE LONG PERIOD NE SWELL AFFECTING THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS AND NE CARIBBEAN PASSAGES WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THU. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: 00 UTC GFS/MWW3 BLEND WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRES OVER THE BASIN WITH ITS RIDGE ROUGHLY ALONG 29N IS GRADUALLY SLIDING EASTWARD WHILE WEAKENING. THE TAIL END OF THE CENTRAL ATLC STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS SW TO THE FAR SE WATERS...AND TO JUST NW OF PUERTO RICO. THE WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE WESTWARD TO THE SE BAHAMAS BY EARLY WED THEN DISSIPATE DURING WED AFTERNOON. THE MOST RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA ARE INDICATING GENTLE TO MODERATE NE-E WINDS S OF 27N...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS WITHIN AROUND 90-100 NM NW OF THE FRONT OVER THE FAR SE WATERS AND IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. LIGHT TO GENTLE VARIABLE WINDS ARE OVER THE WATERS N OF 27N DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF THE RIDGE AXIS. THE OBSERVATIONS FROM BUOYS ALONG WITH AN ALTIMETER PASS REVEALED SEA IN THE 6-9 FT RANGE S OF 27N AND NE OF BAHAMAS. THESE SEAS ARE MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH NE SWELLS. SEAS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE TODAY AS THE NE SWELL DECAYS. MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE NW WATERS TODAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRES SHIFTS EASTWARD. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE GEORGIA COAST AND STALL TODAY... THEN LIFT N AS WARM FRONT TONIGHT INTO WED. THE MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE NW WATERS LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH WED AS LOW PRES RAPIDLY DEEPENS NW OF THE REGION OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE STRONG...AND PUSH OFF THE SE U.S. COAST WED NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL QUICKLY MOVE EASTWARD AND REACH FROM 31N70W TO THE SE BAHAMAS BY LATE THU...AND STALL FROM 28N65W TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE SAT. STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS WITH RAPIDLY BUILDING SEAS WILL FOLLOW THE COLD FRONT N OF 27N WED NIGHT INTO THU. FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH WINDS GUSTING TO GALE WARNING FORCE JUST N OF THE AREA. A BAND OF STRONG TSTMS...LIKELY IN LINES...WITH GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF FRONT. WINDS AND SEAS N OF 27N DIMINISH SOME THU NIGHT INTO FRI...AND FURTHER MORE ON SAT AS HIGH PRES RIDGES EASTWARD OVER THE AREA FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ011...NW GULF INCLUDING STETSON BANK... GALE WARNING TONIGHT INTO WED. .GMZ013...N CENTRAL GULF INCLUDING FLOWER GARDEN BANKS MARINE SANCTUARY... GALE WARNING TODAY INTO WED. .GMZ015...NE GULF N OF 25N E OF 87W... GALE WARNING WED. .GMZ017...W CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N W OF 94W... GALE WARNING TONIGHT INTO WED. .GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... GALE WARNING WED. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER GR. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.