000 AGXX40 KNHC 221944 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 244 PM EST MON FEB 22 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: 12 UTC GFS/MWW3 BLEND WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WINDS THROUGH TUE NIGHT...THEN USED A GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS ALONG WITH A SMALL PERCENTAGE OF TAFB NWPS WAVE PARAMETERS FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUE NIGHT... THEN AVERAGE CONFIDENCE THROUGH SAT. WEAK HIGH PRES IS PRESENT ACROSS THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL WATERS. THE ASSOCIATED GRADIENT IS BRINGING GENTLE TO MODERATE E-SE WINDS THROUGHOUT. THE BUOY OBSERVATIONS ARE REPORTING SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 4-5 FT...EXCEPT FOR LOWER SEAS OF 2-4 FT IN THE FAR NW AND SW PORTIONS AND 1-2 FR IN THE NE AND SE PORTIONS. ALTIMETER DATA PASSES FROM THIS MORNING VERIFIED THESE OBSERVATIONS. THE AREAS OF DENSE FOG EARLIER NOTED IN THE NW GULF HAVE DECREASED A LITTLE IN SIZE COVERAGE...BUT CONTINUE AS INFERRED FROM THE GOES IFR/LIFR SATELLITE PRODUCTS. THE FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AND MAY RETURN TO SOME LOCATIONS OF THE NW GULF TONIGHT. THE HIGH PRES WILL MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH TUE NIGHT WHILE CONTINUING TO WEAKEN. A WEAK COLD FRONT JUST INLAND THE NW COAST WILL APPROACH THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTS LATE MON...THEN STALL AND LIFT BACK N AS A WARM FRONT ON TUE. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS THE NW WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUE AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT FORECAST TO REACH THE TEXAS COAST BY EARLY TUE AFTERNOON...AND MOVE INTO NW GULF ZONE LATER ON TUE AFTERNOON. THIS IS A LITTLE SOONER THAN EARLIER ANTICIPATED AS GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED A BIT FASTER WITH THE PARENT LOW DEEPENING OVER TEXAS. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM NEAR S CENTRAL LOUISIANA TO THE TEXAS/NE MEXICAN BORDER TUE EVENING...FROM THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE WED NEAR 12Z AS THE PARENT DEEPENING LOW OVER TEXAS TRACKS NE ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THE FRONT WILL PUSH SE TO A POSITION FROM NEAR TAMPA BAY FLORIDA TO THE NE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND YUCATAN CHANNEL VICINITY BY EARLY WED NIGHT...THEN MOVE E OF THE AREA DURING WED NIGHT. STRONG TO GALE FORCE NW-N WINDS ARE LIKELY OVER THE NORTHWEST AND N CENTRAL GULF WATERS TUE NIGHT INTO WED. GALE FORCE NW-N WINDS ARE POSSIBE WED W OF 95W FOR ZONE GM017 AND FOR ZONE GMZ023. GALE WARNINGS HAVE ALREADY BEEN HOISTED FOR THOSE ZONES AS 34 KT WIND PROBABILITIES FROM BOTH THE SREF AND GFS MEAN ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO BE ON THE HIGH SIDE. PROBABILITIES ARE LOW FOR ZONE GMZ015...BUT MAY HAVE TO CONSIDER AT LEAST FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE FORCE THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THAT ZONE FOR WED AND WED EVENING IF PROBABILITIES TREND UPWARD THERE. FOR NOW...SOME OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO GALE FORCE ARE POSSIBLE THERE FOR WED AND WED NIGHT PERIODS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT ...S-SW WINDS OF 25-30 KT ARE EXPECTED. THE GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BELOW GALE WARNING FORCE BY 00Z THU ALL AFFECTED ZONES EXCEPT MAYBE THE FAR NORTHERN PART OF GMZ015 WHERE THE WINDS MAY CONTINUE A LITTLE LONGER. WINDS FURTHER DIMINISH ON THU AND FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN OVER THE NW GULF. FRESH NW WINDS WILL LINGER SOME IN THE NE GULF THU AND THU EVENING BEFORE BECOMING MODERATE FROM THE N ON FRI. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD FRI AND SAT...SE RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP IN THE FAR WESTERN PORTION. AS FAR AS SEA STATE ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG TO GALE FORCE WINDS IS CONCERNED...WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT SEAS WILL BUILD TO 8-12 FT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. BEHIND THE FRONT...SEAS ARE FORECAST TO REACH A RANGE OF 9-13 FT NW GULF AND 10-14 FT N CENTRAL GULF WITH SEAS OF 8-12 FT IN THE SW GULF ZONE. SEAS SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 FT ALL ZONE LATE THU NIGHT OR EARLY ON FRI. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: 12 UTC GFS/MWW3 BLEND WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE 1510 ASCAT PASS NICELY CAPTURED AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS S OF 14N BETWEEN 74W-77W. IN ADDITION...SHIP WITH CALL LETTER ID "BATFR14" IS REPORTING NE 25-30 KT WINDS AS IT SAILS FROM N TO S NEAR 76W. THE ASCAT PASS NOTED MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS ELSEWHERE. THE BUOYS ALONG WITH RECENT ALTIMETER DATA ARE REPORTING SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 4-6 FT...EXCEPT FOR HIGHER SEAS OF 8-11 FT IN THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA WITH THE MAX OF SEAS NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. THE ALTIMETER DATA INDICATED SEAS OF 9-11 FT IN NE SWELL IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC ZONES N OF 15N...AND 6-8 FT S OF 15N. AS THE RIDGE N OF AREA SLIDES EASTWARD AND WEAKENS...EXPECT A DECREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS IN THE S CENTRAL AND SW PORTIONS THROUGH TUE NIGHT. MODELS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE ABOVE MENTIONED GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW CARIBBEAN WED NIGHT...AND WEAKEN AS IT REACHES FROM NEAR EASTERN CUBA TO NE HONDURAS ON THU AFTERNOON. MODERATE TO FRESH N WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THU. TRADE WIND FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MODERATE RANGE MOST ZONES...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SW CARIBBEAN WHERE NE-E WINDS WILL PULSE TO FRESH INTENSITY WED THROUGH SAT. FRESH NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE BY LATE SAT. LARGE LONG PERIOD NE SWELL AFFECTING THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS AND NE CARIBBEAN PASSAGES WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THU. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: 12 UTC GFS/MWW3 BLEND WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST THROUGH TUE NIGHT...THEN USED A GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS ALONG WITH A SMALL PERCENTAGE OF TAFB NWPS PARAMETERS FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUE NIGHT...THEN AVERAGE CONFIDENCE THROUGH SAT. HIGH PRES OVER THE BASIN WITH ITS RIDGE ROUGHLY ALONG 29N IS GRADUALLY SLIDING EASTWARD WHILE WEAKENING. THE TAIL END OF THE CENTRAL ATLC STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS SW TO THE FAR SE WATERS...AND TO JUST NW OF PUERTO RICO. LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY CLEARLY DEPICTS CYCLONIC TURNING OF LOW TO MID-LEVEL CLOUDS S OF 23N E OF 68W. SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE CLOUDS. THE WEAEKNING REMNANT FRONTAL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE WESTWARD TO THE SE BAHAMAS BY EARLY WED THEN DISSIPATE DURING WED AFTERNOON. SCATTEROMETER DATA FROM THIS MORNING ALONG WITH RECENT BUOY AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS ARE INDICATING E-SE GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS N OF 25N...AND E MODERATE W WINDS S OF 25N WITH WIND DIRECTION E-SE TO THE W OF THE BAHAMAS. THE OBSERVATIONS FROM BUOYS ALONG WITH AN ALTIMETER PASS FROM THIS MORNING STILL REVEALED SEA STATE ON THE HIGH SIDE E OF THE BAHAMAS AS LONG PERIOD NE SWELL CONTINUES TO INDUCE SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 9-11 FT OVER THAT PORTION OF THE BASIN. THESE SEAS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH TUE AS THE NE SWELL DECAYS. MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE NW PART ON TUE AS THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRES SHIFTS EASTWARD. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE GEORGIA COAST AND STALL ON TUE...THEN LIFT N AS WARM FRONT TUE NIGHT INTO WED. THE MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE NW WATERS LATE TUE NIGHT AND THROUGH WED AS LOW PRES RAPIDLY DEEPENS NW OF THE REGION OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE STRONG...AND PUSH OFF THE SE U.S. COAST WED NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL QUICKLY MOVE EASTWARD AND EXTEND FROM NEAR 31N70W TO THE SE BAHAMAS BY LATE THU AND FROM 28N65W TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE BY LATE FRI. STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS WITH RAPIDLY BUILDING SEAS WILL FOLLOW THE COLD FRONT N OF 27N WED NIGHT INTO THU. FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH WINDS GUSTING TO GALE WARNING FORCE JUST N OF THE AREA. STRONG TSTMS...LIKELY IN LINES...WITH GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF FRONT. WINDS AND SEAS N OF 27N DIMINISH SOME THU NIGHT INTO FRI...AND FURTHER MORE ON SAT AS HIGH PRES RIDGES EASTWARD OVER THE AREA FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ011...NW GULF INCLUDING STETSON BANK... GALE WARNING TUE NIGHT. .GMZ013...N CENTRAL GULF INCLUDING FLOWER GARDEN BANKS MARINE SANCTUARY... GALE WARNING TUE NIGHT INTO WED. .GMZ017...W CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N W OF 94W... GALE WARNING WED. .GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... GALE WARNING WED. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WED. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER AGUIRRE. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.