000 AGXX40 KNHC 211946 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 246 PM EST SUN FEB 21 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: 12 UTC GFS/MWW3 BLEND WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST THROUGH TUE...THEN USED A GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUE...THEN AVERAGE CONFIDENCE THROUGH FRI. THE LATEST SYNOPTIC ANALYSIS DEPICTS BROAD HIGH PRES EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN ATLC TO OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL GULF WATERS. RECENT BUOY OBSERVATIONS REVEAL GENTLE TO MODERATE E TO SE WINDS THROUGHOUT...EXCEPT IN THE FAR NW PORTION WHERE WINDS ARE LIGHT SE IN DIRECTION. THE BUOY OBSERVATIONS ALONG WITH A RECENT ALTIMETER PASS REVEAL SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 3-6 FT S OF A LINE FROM CORPUS CHRISTI TO JUST SE OF LOUISIANA AND SE TO THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS. LOWER SEAS OF 1-2 FT ARE N AND NE OF THIS LINE. HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH THE PRESENT FORECAST WILL YIELD LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CHANGES TO THE FORECAST INTO TUE AS MODELS HAVE A VERY GOOD HANDLE ON THE FORECAST OF THE RIDGE TO WEAKEN WHILE RETREATING EASTWARD. CURRENT OBSERVED WINDS WILL CHANGE LITTLE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH EARLY TUE AS THE PRES GRADIENT WILL BE RATHER WEAK. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTS EARLY ON MON...AND REACH FROM SE LOUISIANA TO THE UPPER TEXAS COAST BY MON EVENING BEFORE STALLING AND LIFTING BACK N AS A WARM FRONT. ON TUE...GENTLE TO MODERATE S-SW WINDS ARE FORECAST TO MATERIALIZE OVER THE NW GULF EARLY ON TUE...THEN BEGIN TO QUICKLY INCREASE DURING TUE AND INTO EARLY WED IN RESPONSE TO THE TIGHTENING OF THE GRADIENT BETWEEN DEEPENING LOW PRES MOVING EASTWARD FROM THE NORTHERN TEXAS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPI VALLEY AND HIGH PRES OVER THE EASTERN GULF. MODELS SEEM IN BETTER AGREEMENT THAT THIS FRONT WILL BE STRONG AND FAST MOVING THROUGH THE GULF. HOWEVER...THERE REMAINS DIFFERENCES IN STRENGTH OF THE LOW...AND WITH ITS TRACK ACROSS THE SE U.S. WED. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL REACH THE SW LOUISIANA AND TEXAS COASTS TUE NIGHT...AND ADVANCE TO A POSITION FROM THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE BY 12Z WED...FROM TAMPA BAY FLORIDA TO NE YUCATAN PENINSULA BY EARLY WED EVENING...AND TO THE SE OF THE GULF AND INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA BY LATE WED NIGHT. STRONG HIGH PRES WILL BUILD ACROSS THE GULF IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH COLD AIR MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE AND TIGHT SURFACE GRADIENT INDUCING GALE FORCE WLY WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF WED WITH POSSIBLE GALE FORCE NW-N LINGERING IN THE FAR SW GULF WED NIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF STRONG AND SHARPENING MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING SWEEPING ACROSS THE GULF WED WITH FORECAST STRONG 850 MB S-SW WINDS OVER THE AREA DO SEE ENOUGH INGREDIENTS FOR DESTABILIZATION OF THE ATMOSPHERE AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO SUPPORT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS TSTM ACTIVITY... SOME OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS. WINDS DIMINISH OVER JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE GULF THU THROUGH FRI AS HIGH PRES SETTLES IN OVER THE NW GULF THU AND SLIDES EASTWARD TO THE N CENTRAL PORTION FRI. A RESIDUAL TIGHT GRADIENT IN THE EASTERN GULF THU SHOULD ALLOW FOR FRESH NW WINDS THERE WITH SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 8-11 FT. THESE WIND AND SEA CONDITIONS DECREASE FRI. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: 12 UTC GFS/MWW3 BLEND WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE. ASCAT DATA FROM 1330 UTC SHOWED A SWATH OF N TO NE 20-25 KT S OF EASTERN HISPANIOLA TO NEAR 15N. GALE FORCE WINDS NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA HAVE RECENTLY DIMINISHED TO JUST BELOW GALE FORCE...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO COME BACK LATE TONIGHT AND LATE SUN NIGHT. A RECENT ALTIMETER PASS SHOWED A MAX SEA HEIGHT OF 13 FT NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. AS THE RIDGE N OF AREA SLIDES EASTWARD AND WEAKENS...EXPECT A DECREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS IN THE S CENTRAL AND SW PORTIONS THROUGH TUE NIGHT. THE ABOVE MENTIONED GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW CARIBBEAN WED NIGHT...AND WEAKEN AS IT REACHES FROM NEAR EASTERN CUBA TO NE HONDURAS ON THU. MODERATE TO FRESH N WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THU. TRADE WIND FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MODERATE RANGE MOST ZONES...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SW CARIBBEAN WHERE NE-E WINDS WILL PULSE TO FRESH INTENSITY WED THROUGH FRI. LARGE LONG PERIOD NE SWELL AFFECTING THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS AND NE CARIBBEAN PASSAGES WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THU. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: 12 UTC GFS/MWW3 BLEND WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL THROUGH TUE...THEN USED A GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUE...THEN AVERAGE CONFIDENCE THROUGH FRI. HIGH PRES OF 1023 MB CENTERED ENE OF BERMUDA EXTENDS A RIDGE ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION. THE COMBINATION OF THE RIDGE AND STATIONARY FRONT JUST ESE OF THE BASIN IS RESULTING IN FRESH NE WINDS MAINLY S OF ABOUT 25N E OF 68W PER ASCAT DATA FROM 1346 UTC. RECENT ALTIMETER SHOWS SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 10-12 FT WITHIN THIS AREA OF FRESH NE WINDS. SEAS ELSEWHERE E AND NE OF THE BAHAMAS ARE 9-11 FT DUE TO PERSISTENT LONG PERIOD NE SWELL. MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE NW PART ON TUE AS A WEAK COLD FRONT BRIEFLY MOVES ACROSS THE FAR NW WATERS...THEN STALLS AND WEAKENS. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE OVER THE NW WATERS LATE TUE NIGHT AND THROUGH WED AS LOW PRES RAPIDLY DEEPENS NW OF THE REGION OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE STRONG...AND PUSH OFF THE SE U.S. COAST WED NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL QUICKLY REACH A POSITION FROM NEAR 31N77W TO NW BAHAMAS...AND TO NW CUBA BY LATE WED NIGHT...FROM NEAR 31N69W TO 26N72W AND TO E CENTRAL CUBA BY THU EVENING... AND WEAKEN AS IT REACHES FROM NEAR 27N65W TO N CENTRAL HISPANIOLA BY LATE FRI. THESE POSITIONS ARE INFERRED FROM A CONSENSUS OF THE GLOBAL MODELS. STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS WITH RAPIDLY BUILDING SEAS WILL FOLLOW IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT N OF 27N WED NIGHT INTO THU. FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH WINDS GUSTING TO GALE FORCE JUST N OF THE AREA. STRONG TSTMS IN LINES WITH GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF FRONT. WINDS AND SEAS N OF 27N BEGIN TO DIMINISH THU AND THROUGH FRI NIGHT. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ011...NW GULF INCLUDING STETSON BANK... GALE WARNING TUE NIGHT INTO WED. .GMZ013...N CENTRAL GULF INCLUDING FLOWER GARDEN BANKS MARINE SANCTUARY... GALE WARNING TUE NIGHT INTO WED. .GMZ015...NE GULF N OF 25N E OF 87W... GALE WARNING TUE NIGHT INTO WED. .GMZ017...W CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N W OF 94W... GALE WARNING TUE NIGHT. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WED. .GMZ019...CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N BETWEEN 87W AND 94W... GALE WARNING TUE NIGHT INTO WED. .GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WED. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER AGUIRRE. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.