000 AGXX40 KNHC 210728 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 228 AM EST SUN FEB 21 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: 00 UTC GFS/MWW3 BLEND WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUE...THEN MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRES LOCATED WEST OF BERMUDA EXTENDS A RIDGE ACROSS FLORIDA AND THE GULF REGION. RECENT BUOY OBSERVATIONS AND SCATTEROMETER DATA REVEAL FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NE-E WINDS ACROSS THE SE GULF AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE SE WINDS ELSEWHERE...EXCEPT FOR MODERATE E-SE WINDS IN THE SW GULF. SEAS ARE GENERALLY UNDER 6 FT BASED ON BUOY OBSERVATIONS AND ALTIMETER PASS...EXCEPT FOR A PATCH OF HIGHER SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 6-8 FT S OF 25N E OF 87W. THE RIDGE AXIS CURRENTLY ALONG 29N WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY N TO NEAR 30N BY TONIGHT. THE PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA WILL SUPPORT GENTLE TO MODERATE E-SE WINDS ACROSS THE GULF WATERS THROUGH EARLY MON...EXCEPT FOR MODERATE E WINDS FAR SE GULF PORTION AND STRAITS OF FLORIDA. THE PRES GRADIENT WEAKENS FURTHER THROUGH EARLY TUE. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTS MON NIGHT...AND REACH FROM SE LOUISIANA TO THE UPPER TEXAS COAST BY EARLY TUE BEFORE STALLING AND LIFTING BACK N AS A WARM FRONT. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS THE NW WATERS LATE TUE AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT FORECAST TO ENTER THE GULF WATERS LATE TUE NIGHT. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO REACH FROM TAMPA BAY TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA BY LATE WED AND SWEEP E OF THE AREA BY WED NIGHT. STRONG TO GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE GULF W OF 94W IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WED. CURRENTLY...THE SREF INDICATES 34 KT WIND PROBABILITIES ARE 20 PERCENT IN THE WEST CENTRAL GULF/GMZ017 WHILE THE GEFS 34 KT WIND PROBABILITIES ARE 50 PERCENT BY WED MORNING. THEN...SIMILAR 34 KT WIND PROBABILITIES ARE NOTED ACROSS THE SW GULF/GMZ023 BY WED AFTERNOON. MARINE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE 30-40 KT RANGE AND BUILDING SEAS UP TO 12 FT WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE BY 00Z THU AS THE FRONT EXITS THE AREA. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: 00 UTC GFS/MWW3 BLEND WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE MOST RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASS SHOWS A SWATH OF NE-E WINDS IN THE 30-35 KT RANGE NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WHILE FRESH TO STRONG NE-E WINDS ARE ELSEWHERE S OF 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 78W. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO NOTED ACROSS THE WINDWARD AND MONA PASSAGES AND S AND SW OF DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. A COUPLE OF ALTIMETER PASSES INDICATE SEAS NEAR 12 FT ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THESE WINDS ARE MAINLY A CAUSE OF THE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN A 1028 MB HIGH PRES CENTERED WEST OF BERMUDA NEAR 32N67W AND THE COLOMBIAN/PANAMANIAM LOW. THE GALE FORCE WINDS CURRENTLY BLOWING NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO JUST BELOW GALE FORCE DURING THE DAY...BUT ARE FORECAST TO COME BACK LATE TONIGHT. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD UP TO ABOUT 13 FT IN THE AREA OF THE GALE FORCE WINDS. AS THE RIDGE N OF AREA SHIFTS E AND WEAKENS...EXPECT A DECREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS ACROSS THE BASIN BY EARLY MON. THEREAFTER...A TYPICAL TRADE WIND PATTERN WILL SET UP ACROSS THE S-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH FRESH TO STRONG WINDS BETWEEN 70W-80W MON THROUGH THU. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE NW CARIBBEAN WED NIGHT FOLLOWED BY FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS OF 7-8 FT. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS EARLY THU MORNING AND FROM EASTERN CUBA TO NE HONDURAS BY THU NIGHT. TROPICAL N ATLC...MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADES ARE EXPECTED E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES TO 55W WITH SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 9-10 FT IN NE TO E SWELL SUBSIDING TO 6-9 FT LATE TUE. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: 00 UTC GFS/MWW3 BLEND WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUE...THEN MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRES OF 1028 CENTERED WEST OF BERMUDA NEAR 32N67W EXTENDS A RIDGE ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION PRODUCING FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NE-E WINDS MAINLY S OF 25N. BUOY OBSERVATIONS...A FEW SHIP REPORTS ALONG WITH ALTIMETER DATA INDICATE SEAS IN THE 8-11 FT RANGE NE OF THE BAHAMAS...HIGHEST WITHIN THE AREA OF FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS. AS THE HIGH PRES MOVES NE AND WEAKENS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE PRES GRADIENT WILL RELAX A BIT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS S OF 27N...EXCEPT MODERATE TO FRESH NE-E WINDS S OF 22N-23N. MAINLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED N OF 27N WITH A RIDGE AXIS ROUGHLY ALONG 28N-29N. NE SWELL WILL PROPAGATE ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION TODAY BUILDING SEAS UP TO 11 FT ACROSS THE SE WATERS. THEN...SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE NE OF THE BAHAMAS THROUGH TUE. EXPECT MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE NW PART ON TUE AS A WEAK COLD FRONT BRIEFLY MOVES ACROSS THE FAR NW WATERS... THEN STALLS AND WEAKENS. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN OVER THE NW WATERS WED IN ADVANCE OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO PUSH OFF THE SE U.S. COAST WED NIGHT. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO REACH FROM NEAR 31N74W TO CENTRAL CUBA BY EARLY THU MORNING AND FROM NEAR 31N65W TO EASTERN CUBA THU NIGHT. GALE FORCE W TO NW WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN WATERS WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THU...AND ALSO WITH SLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THU. AT THAT TIME...THE GEFS 34 KT WIND PROBABILITIES ARE 10-20 PERCENT ACROSS THE NW WATERS. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ017...W CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N W OF 94W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WED. .GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WED. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... GALE WARNING EARLY TODAY. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER GR. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.