000 AGXX40 KNHC 201942 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 242 PM EST SAT FEB 20 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: 12 UTC GFS/MWW3 BLEND WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL THROUGH MON...THEN USED A GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUE...THEN AVERAGE CONFIDENCE. A 1028 MB HIGH PRES CENTER ANALYZED OVER THE WESTERN ATLC EXTENDS A RIDGE WSW ACROSS N FLORIDA AND TO THE NW GULF. RECENT BUOY OBSERVATIONS REVEAL GENTLE TO MODERATE E WINDS OVER THE EASTERN GULF S OF 27N...AND GENTLE SE TO S WINDS ELSEWHERE EXCEPT FOR MODERATE E-SE WINDS IN THE SW GULF. THE BUOY OBSERVATIONS ALONG WITH A RECENT ALTIMETER PASS REVEAL SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 3-5 FT S OF A LINE FROM CORPUS CHRISTI TO 30N89W AND SE TO THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS...EXCEPT FOR A PATCH OF HIGHER SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 6-7 FT S OF 25N BETWEEN 84W-87W INCLUDING THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AREA. HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH THE PRESENT FORECAST WILL YIELD LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CHANGES TO THIS ISSUANCE OF THE FORECAST BEGINNING TONIGHT INTO TUE AS MODELS HAVE A VERY GOOD HANDLE ON THE FORECAST OF THE RIDGE TO SHIFT SLIGHTLY N TO NEAR 30N BY SUN NIGHT. THE PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA WILL SUPPORT AT MOST GENTLE E-SE WINDS THROUGHOUT THROUGH EARLY MON...EXCEPT FOR MODERATE E WINDS FAR SE GULF PORTION AND STRAITS OF FLORIDA. THE THE GRADIENT WEAKENS FURTHER TO A WEAK PRES PATTERN DURING MON ...AND THROUGH EARLY TUE. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTS MON NIGHT...AND REACH FROM SE LOUISIANA TO THE UPPER TEXAS COAST BY EARLY TUE BEFORE STALLING AND LIFTING BACK N AS A WARM FRONT. ON TUE...GENTLE TO MODERATE S-SW WINDS ARE FORECAST TO MATERIALIZE OVER THE NW GULF. THESE WINDS BEGIN TO QUICKLY INCREASE DURING TUE AND INTO EARLY WED IN RESPONSE TO THE TIGHTENING OF THE GRADEINT BETWEEN DEEPENING LOW PRES MOVING EASTWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS AND NORTHERN TEXAS AND HIGH PRES OVER THE EASTERN GULF. DIFFERENCES IN STRENGTH OF THE LOW AND WITH ITS ACTUAL TRACK THROUGH N TEXAS EARLY NEXT WEEK BRING UNCERTAINTY WITH TIMING OF THE FOLLOWING COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED WINDS INTO THE NW GULF. PRESENTLY...IT APPEARS THAT THIS FRONT WILL REACH THE SW LOUISIANA AND TEXAS COASTS TUE NIGHT...AND ADVANCE TO A POSITION FROM NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO THE SW GULF AROUND 12Z WED...FROM NEAR TAMPA FLORIDA TO THE NE YUCATAN PENINSULA BY EARLY WED EVENING...AND TO THE SE OF THE GULF AND INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA LATE WED. STRONG HIGH PRES WILL BUILD ACROSS THE GULF IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH THE RESULTANT TIGHT PRES GRADEINT EXPECTED TO INDUCE GALE FORCE NW-W WINDS OVER PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN GULF WITH SEAS BUILDING TO AROUND THE RANGE OF 9-14 FT. LATEST GFS MEAN ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES ARE HIGHEST OVER THOSE PORTIONS OF THE GULF...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF GALE FORCE W TO NW WINDS IN THE N CENTRAL GULF WED AND WED NIGHT. WINDS DIMINISH OVER JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE GULF THU AS HIGH PRES SETTLES IN OVER THE NW GULF. THE EXCEPTION IS EXPECTED TO BE SEEN IN THE EASTERN GULF WHERE A LINGERING TIGHT GRADIENT THERE SHOULD MAINTAIN FRESH NW WINDS THERE WITH SEAS IN THE RANGE OF ABOUT 9-12 FT. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: 12 UTC GFS/MWW3 BLEND WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL THROUGH MON...THEN USED A GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. ASCAT DATA FROM 1410 UTC CLEARLY DISPLAYED A SWATH OF NE TO E 30-35 KT NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WHILE FRESH TO STRONG NE-E WINDS WERE ELSEWHERE BETWEEN 74W AND 78W. A DISTINCT SWATH OF NE WINDS WAS REVEALED BY THE PASS TO THE S AND SW HISPANIOLA BETWEEN 70W-74W. THESE WINDS ARE MAINLY A CAUSE OF THE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN A 1028 MB HIGH PRES CENTERED ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLC AND THE COLOMBIAN/PANAMANIAM LOW. THE GALE FORCE NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA HAVE RECENTLY DIMINISHED TO JUST BELOW GALE FORCE...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO COME BACK LATE TONIGHT AND LATE SUN NIGHT. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD UP TO ABOUT 13 FT IN THE AREA OF THE GALE FORCE WINDS. AS THE RIDGE N OF AREA SHIFTS E AND WEAKENS...EXPECT A DECREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS ACROSS THE BASIN BY LATE SUN. THEREAFTER...A TYPICAL TRADE WIND PATTERN WILL SET UP ACROSS THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH FRESH TO STRONG WINDS BETWEEN 70W-80W MON THROUGH THU. TROPICAL N ATLC...MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADES ARE EXPECTED E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES TO 55W WITH SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 9-10 FT IN NE TO E SWELL SUBSIDING TO 6-9 FT LATE TUE. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: 12 UTC GFS/MWW3 BLEND WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL THROUGH MON...THEN USED A GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRES OF 1028 CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLC NEAR 32N743W EXTENDS A RIDGE ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION PRODUCING FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NE-E WINDS MAINLY S OF 28N. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE NOTED OVER THE EASTERN PORTION IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT THAT IS JUST ESE OF THE AREA. BUOY OBSERVATIONS...A FEW CURRENT AND RECENT SHIP REPORTS ALONG WITH ALTIMETER DATA FROM TODAY INDICATE SEAS IN THE 9-11 FT RANGE WITHIN THE AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS...AND EVEN WESTWARD FROM THERE TOWARDS THE SE BAHAMAS AND NE COAST OF HISPANIOLA. WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH SUN AS THE 1028 HIGH CENTER BECOMES RE-ESTABLISHED AS 1025 MB HIGH NEAR 31N. THEREAFTER..A RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE FORECAST ARE THROUGH TUE. EXPECT MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE NW PART ON TUE AS A WEAK COLD FRONT BRIEFLY MOVES ACROSS THE FAR NW WATERS...THEN STALLS AND WEAKENS. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE NW WATERS WED IN ADVANCE OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO PUSH OFF THE SE U.S. COAST WED NIGHT. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO REACH FROM NEAR 31N69W TO 25N75W TO NEAR 26N74W AND TO CENTRAL CUBA BY LATE THU. GALE FORCE W TO NW WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN WATERS WED INTO EARLY THU...AND ALSO WITH SLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATE WED INTO EARLY THU. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ017...W CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N W OF 94W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WED. .GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WED INTO WED NIGHT. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... GALE WARNING TONIGHT INTO SUN NIGHT. .AMZ039...SW CARIBBEAN S OF 11N INCLUDING APPROACHES TO PANAMA CANAL... GALE WARNING TONIGHT. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER AGUIRRE. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.