000 AGXX40 KNHC 200722 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 222 AM EST SAT FEB 20 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A 1030 MB HIGH PRES LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN ATLC EXTENDS A RIDGE SW ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE GULF REGION WHILE A TROUGH IS ANALYZED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. UNDER THIS PATTERN...SCATTEROMETER AND OBSERVATION DATA INDICATE FRESH TO STRONG NE-E WINDS ACROSS THE SE GULF AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. MODERATE TO FRESH E-SE WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN GULF WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF. SEAS ARE GENERALLY RUNNING UNDER 6 FT BASED ON BUOY OBSERVATIONS...WITH A POSSIBLE MAXIMUM OF 8-9 FT ACROSS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA WHERE THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE BLOWING. THE TROUGH OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WILL DRIFT WESTWARD ACROSS THE SW GULF WHERE IT WILL EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE LATER TODAY BEFORE REDEVELOPING TONIGHT. THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE BASIN...BUT THE RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT N EXTENDING ALONG 29N-30N THROUGH SUN EVENING. THE NEXT WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTS MON NIGHT...EXTENDING FROM THE FL PANHANDLE TO THE UPPER TEXAS COAST BY TUE NIGHT. A STRONGER REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE GULF WATERS EARLY ON WED FOLLOWED BY STRONG TO GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS UP TO 12-13 FT. THIS SECOND COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO REACH FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE BY LATE WED. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE MOST RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA PROVIDED OBSERVATIONS OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS IN THE LEE OF CUBA AND ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN... INCLUDING THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AS WELL AS ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND DOWNWIND TO THE SOUTH OF JAMAICA TO NEAR 16N78W...AND JUST S OF HISPANIOLA. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN A 1030 MB HIGH PRES CENTERED ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLC AND THE COLOMBIAN/PANAMANIAM LOW... WITH A CENTRAL PRES OF 1004 MB...SUPPORTS THESE WIND SPEEDS. MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA THROUGH SAT NIGHT...PARTICULARLY BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z. THEN...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH NEAR GALE FORCE EACH NIGHT SUN NIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD UP TO A RANGE OF 13-14 FT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS. AS THE RIDGE N OF AREA SHIFTS EAST AND WEAKENS...EXPECT A DECREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS ACROSS THE BASIN BY LATE SUN. THEREAFTER...A TYPICAL TRADE WIND PATTERN WILL SET UP ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH FRESH TO STRONG WINDS BETWEEN 70W-80W MON THROUGH WED. TROPICAL N ATLC...MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADES ARE EXPECTED E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES TO 55W WITH SEAS BUILDING UP TO 9-10 FT IN NE TO E SWELL. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLC NEAR 33N74W EXTENDS A RIDGE ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION PRODUCING FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NE-E WINDS MAINLY S OF 27N. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE NOTED ACROSS THE EAST WATERS BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM 31N55W TO PUERTO RICO. BUOYS...A FEW SHIP OBSERVATIONS AND AN ALTIMETER PASS INDICATE SEAS IN THE 8-11 FT RANGE BEHIND THE FRONT AND NE OF THE BAHAMAS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TODAY AND TONIGHT AS A HIGH PRES OF 1025 MB ESTABLISHES ALONG 31N. THEN...A RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE FORECAST ARE THROUGH TUE. EXPECT MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE NW PART ON TUE AS A WEAK COLD FRONT CLIPS THE FORECAST REGION. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE AREA BY WED NIGHT EXTENDING FROM 31N79W TO SOUTH FLORIDA. MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS MAY OCCUR IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ017...W CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N W OF 94W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WED. .GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WED INTO WED NIGHT. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... GALE WARNING EARLY TODAY. GALE WARNING TONIGHT INTO SUN NIGHT. .AMZ039...SW CARIBBEAN S OF 11N INCLUDING APPROACHES TO PANAMA CANAL... GALE WARNING TONIGHT. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER GR. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.