000 AGXX40 KNHC 191829 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 129 PM EST FRI FEB 19 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A 1037 MB HIGH PRES LOCATED ACROSS THE DELMARVA REGION EXTENDS A RIDGE S-SW ACROSS THE GULF WATERS TO THE WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE. UNDER THIS PATTERN...LATEST SCATTEROMETER AND OBSERVATION DATA INDICATE MAINLY MODERATE TO FRESH E-SE WINDS IN THE EASTERN GULF AND S-SE WINDS IN THE WESTERN GULF. SEAS ARE GENERALLY RUNNING UNDER 6 FT WITH A SMALL MAXIMUM OF 7 FT NOTED SW OF KEY WEST FLORIDA IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS. FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF THE NW COAST OF CUBA TONIGHT WITH SEAS GRADUALLY BUILDING TO 8 FT IN THE APPROACH REGION TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE BASIN...BUT GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTHWARD EXTENDING ALONG 29N-30N THROUGH SUN NIGHT. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE NW AND N-CENTRAL GULF MON EVENING INTO MON NIGHT AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD. ANOTHER POTENTIALLY STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW GULF TUE NIGHT. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. OVERNIGHT SCATTEROMETER DATA PROVIDED OBSERVATIONS OF MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA NEAR 11N74.5W...WITH FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ELSEWHERE S OF 14N BETWEEN 73W AND 79W. RECENT EARLIER MORNING SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATED FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS IN THE LEE OF EASTERN CUBA AND ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...INCLUDING DOWNWIND TO THE SOUTH OF JAMAICA NEAR 16N78.5W. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN A 1037 MB HIGH PRES CENTERED ACROSS THE MID-ATLC COAST AND LOWER PRESSURE ACROSS COLOMBIA AT 1007 MB SUPPORTS THESE WIND SPEEDS. MINIMAL GALE FORCE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA THROUGH SAT NIGHT...PARTICULARLY BETWEEN 00Z AND 12Z. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD UP TO A RANGE OF 13-14 FT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE STRONGER WINDS AND LENGTHIER FETCH. ALSO BY TONIGHT AS THE REMAINING ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH A SW NORTH ATLC COLD FRONT MOVES EAST...NE WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE MONA PASSAGE AND SOUTH OF DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WITH SEAS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO A RANGE OF 8-11 FT DOWNWIND TO NEAR 14N77W...ESSENTIALLY MERGING WITH THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR GALE TO GALE FORCE WIND FIELD. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE AND WAVES SUBSIDE ACROSS THE BASIN LATE SUN AS THE RIDGE N OF AREA SHIFTS EAST AND WEAKENS. THEREAFTER...A TYPICAL TRADE WIND PATTERN WILL SET UP ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH FRESH TO STRONG WINDS BETWEEN 70W-80W INTO MON AND TUE. TROPICAL N ATLC...MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADES ARE EXPECTED E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES TO 55W WITH SEAS BUILDING UP TO 9-10 FT IN NE TO E SWELL. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A COLD FRONT IS ANALYZED ACROSS THE SE WATERS FROM 22N64W TO THE MONA PASSAGE. A SECOND WAVE OF REINFORCING COLD AIR HAS MERGED WITH THE PRIMARILY COLD FRONT DURING THE PREVIOUS 12-18 HOURS AND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC REGION...SUPPORTS A BROAD AREA OF 20 TO 30 KT NORTHERLY WINDS WEST OF THE FRONT TO 78W...INCLUDING THE WATERS BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA. OUTSIDE OF THE BAHAMAS...A RECENT ALTIMETER PASS INDICATED SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 8-12 FT IN N TO NE SWELL. WINDS AND ASSOCIATED SEAS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AND SUBSIDE RESPECTIVELY TONIGHT INTO SAT AS A RIDGE AXIS ESTABLISHES ITSELF ALONG 30N/31N. THE RIDGE WILL THEN PROVIDE THE DOMINATE INFLUENCE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TUE. ON TUE AND THEREAFTER... INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS NW PORTIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH SEAS BEGINNING TO BUILD ONCE AGAIN INTO THE 7-9 FT RANGE. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE REGION BY LATE WED. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... GALE WARNING TONIGHT INTO SUN. .AMZ039...SW CARIBBEAN S OF 11N INCLUDING APPROACHES TO PANAMA CANAL... GALE WARNING TONIGHT. GALE WARNING SAT NIGHT. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER HUFFMAN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.