000 AGXX40 KNHC 190801 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 301 AM EST FRI FEB 19 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A 1032 MB HIGH PRES LOCATED OVER THE CAROLINAS EXTENDS A RIDGE SW ACROSS THE GULF WATERS WHILE A SURFACE TROUGH HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. UNDER THIS PATTERN...LATEST SCATTEROMETER AND OBSERVATION DATA INDICATE MAINLY MODERATE TO FRESH NE-E WINDS IN THE EASTERN GULF AND E-SE WINDS IN THE WESTERN GULF...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NE WINDS JUST W OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. SEAS ARE GENERALLY UNDER 6 FT BASED ON BUOY OBSERVATIONS AND A COUPLE OF ALTIMETER PASSES. FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS ARE NOTED ACROSS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA WITH BUILDING SEAS OF 6-9 FT. THE TROUGH WILL DRIFT WESTWARD ACROSS THE SW GULF WHERE IT WILL EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE LATER TODAY BEFORE REDEVELOPING TONIGHT. THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE BASIN...BUT THE RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT N EXTENDING ALONG 29N-30N THROUGH SUN EVENING. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE NW AND N-CENTRAL GULF MON EVENING INTO MON NIGHT AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW GULF TUE NIGHT. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASS PROVIDED OBSERVATIONS OF MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA...WITH FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ELSEWHERE S OF 14N BETWEEN 72W AND 79W. FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS ARE ALSO NOTED IN THE LEE OF EASTERN CUBA AND ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN A 1032 MB HIGH PRES LOCATED OVER THE CAROLINAS AND THE COLOMBIAN LOW...WITH A CENTRAL PRES OF 1005 MB...SUPPORTS THESE WIND SPEEDS. MINIMAL GALE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA EACH NIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT... PARTICULARLY BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z...WITH GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MON NIGHT. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD UP TO 13-14 FT WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS. BY TONIGHT...EXPECT ALSO INCREASING WINDS ACROSS THE MONA PASSAGE AND JUST SOUTH OF DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 8-10 FT DOWNWIND FROM WINDWARD PASSAGE NEAR JAMAICA. WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE ACROSS THE BASIN LATE ON SUN AS THE RIDGE N OF AREA SHIFTS E AND WEAKENS. THEN...A TYPICAL TRADE WIND PATTERN WILL SET UP ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH FRESH TO STRONG WINDS BETWEEN 70W-80W INTO MON. TROPICAL N ATLC...MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADES ARE EXPECTED E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES TO 55W WITH SEAS BUILDING UP TO 9-10 FT IN NE-E SWELL. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE SE WATERS AND EXTENDS FROM 22N70W TO NEAR PUNTA MAISI...THE EASTERNMOST POINT OF CUBA. A SECOND AND REINFORCING COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM 31N66W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS FOLLOWED BY FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS AND SEAS UP TO NEAR 12 FT BASED ON AN ALTIMETER PASS. THESE FRONTS ARE EXPECTED TO MERGE IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. BY FRI EVENING...FRESH TO STRONG N-NE WINDS WILL DOMINATE MAINLY THE WATERS E OF 70W AND S OF 27N...INCLUDING THE WATERS BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA...WITH SEAS RANGING FROM 8 TO 11 FT NE OF THE BAHAMAS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH FRI NIGHT INTO SAT AS A HIGH PRES OF 1025 MB ESTABLISHES ALONG 31N. THEN...A RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TUE. EXPECT INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE NW PART ON TUE WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 8 FT. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE AREA BY LATE WED. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... GALE WARNING TONIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN NIGHT. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MON NIGHT. .AMZ039...SW CARIBBEAN S OF 11N INCLUDING APPROACHES TO PANAMA CANAL... GALE WARNING TONIGHT. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER GR. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.