000 AGXX40 KNHC 181915 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 215 PM EST THU FEB 18 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING S-SW FROM STRONG HIGH PRES CENTERED IN THE TENNESSEE VALLEY PREVAILS ACROSS THE REGION. LATEST SCATTEROMETER AND OBSERVATION DATA INDICATES MODERATE TO FRESH N-NE WINDS IN THE E GULF...WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE E-SE WINDS GENERALLY W OF 90W. THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE BASIN THROUGH FRI WHILE GRADUALLY SHIFTING TOWARD THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY FRI NIGHT. FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF...INCLUDING THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 6-8 FT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SE GULF INCLUDING THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DECREASE SAT AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A RIDGE AXIS MATERIALIZING ALONG 30N SAT NIGHT THROUGH MON...WITH A WEAK FRONT APPROACHING THE NW AND N-CENTRAL GULF MON LATE INTO MON NIGHT AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A BENIGN COLD FRONT REACHES FROM EASTERN CUBA TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS. THE FRONT HAS WEAKENED THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE REGION WITH RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATING A SMALLER AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG E-NE WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTH- CENTRAL PORTION OF THE BASIN AND TROPICAL ATLC WATERS. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME DIFFUSE WITH ANY REMAINING ENERGY SHIFTING E-NE INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS THIS OCCURS... STRONG NE WINDS WILL FUNNEL THROUGH WINDWARD PASSAGE AND SW OF CUBA INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN IN WAKE OF THE BOUNDARY FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT...WITH MAX SEAS BUILDING TO 8-10 FT DOWNWIND FROM WINDWARD PASSAGE NEAR JAMAICA. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN SAT AS THE HIGH N OF THE AREA SHIFTS E AND WEAKENS. AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD THROUGH SUN NIGHT...A TYPICAL TRADE WIND PATTERN WILL SET UP ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH FRESH TO STRONG WINDS BETWEEN 70W-80W INTO MON. ALSO EXPECT AREA OF NEAR GALE TO GALE FORCE NE WINDS TO DEVELOP NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA EACH NIGHT BETWEEN 03Z-12Z. STRONG HIGH PRES IN THE CENTRAL ATLC WILL STRENGTHEN TRADE WINDS IN THE TROPICAL ATLC AND BUILD EASTERLY SWELL REACHING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS THIS WEEKEND. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE REGION FROM 29N65W THROUGH THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS TO EASTERN CUBA COAST NEAR 21N75W. SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWS A SMALL POCKET OF MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS REACHING 240 NM NORTHWEST OF THE BOUNDARY IN 7-8 FT SEAS. FARTHER TO THE NW...A REINFORCING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N71W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY MERGE WITH THE PRIMARY FRONT BY FRI AND EXTEND FROM 23N65W TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF HISPANIOLA. BY SAT...THE FRONT WILL BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY AND BEGIN TRANSITION TO A SHEAR LINE WITH A NARROW AREA OF 20-25 KT WINDS NW OF THE FRONT STRETCHING FROM 22N63W TO THE NE COAST OF HISPANIOLA. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT AND FRI SUPPORTING STRONG NE WINDS ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND ADJACENT ATLC WATERS WITH SEAS RANGING FROM 8 TO 11 FT NE OF THE BAHAMAS. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE GRADUALLY FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO DIMINISH IN COVERAGE ON SAT AS THE HIGH WEAKENS AND A RIDGE AXIS SETS UP ALONG 30N KEEPING ANY FRONTS THROUGH TUE FROM PENETRATING THE AREA. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... GALE WARNING FRI NIGHT. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SAT INTO SUN NIGHT. .AMZ039...SW CARIBBEAN S OF 11N INCLUDING APPROACHES TO PANAMA CANAL... GALE WARNING FRI NIGHT. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER HUFFMAN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.