000 AGXX40 KNHC 180730 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 230 AM EST THU FEB 18 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING S-SW FROM STRONG HIGH PRES CENTERED IN THE OHIO VALLEY PREVAILS ACROSS THE REGION. SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWS MODERATE TO FRESH N-NE WINDS IN THE NE GULF...THE FAR SE GULF AND THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE. THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE BASIN THROUGH FRI WHILE AREA OF HIGH PRES SHIFTS TO ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 6-8 FT S OF 25N E OF 88W TO INCLUDE THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DECREASE SAT AS HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS. GFS SHOWS A RIDGE SETTING UP ALONG 30N SAT NIGHT THROUGH MON...WITH A WEAK FRONT APPROACHING THE NORTHERN GULF MON NIGHT AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A BENIGN COLD FRONT REACHES FROM EASTERN CUBA TO 19N84W IN THE NW CARIBBEAN. THE FRONT HAS WEAKENED THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION...AND SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWS MODERATE TO FRESH ELY WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL ATLC. THE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHILE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SE U.S. AND THE WESTERN ATLC. STRONG NE WINDS WILL FUNNEL THROUGH WINDWARD PASSAGE AND SW OF CUBA INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT...WITH MAX SEAS BUILDING TO 8-10 FT DOWNWIND FROM WINDWARD PASSAGE NEAR JAMAICA. WINDS EXPECTED TO DECREASE ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN SAT AS THE HIGH N OF THE AREA SHIFTS E AND WEAKENS. AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD THROUGH SUN NIGHT...A TYPICAL TRADE WIND PATTERN WILL SET UP ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH FRESH TO STRONG WINDS BETWEEN 70W- 80W INTO MON. ALSO EXPECT AREA OF GALE WARNINGS LIKELY TO DEVELOP NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA EACH NIGHT BETWEEN 03Z-12Z. STRONG HIGH PRES IN THE CENTRAL ATLC WILL STRENGTHEN TRADE WINDS IN THE TROPICAL ATLC AND BUILD ELY SWELL REACHING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS THIS WEEKEND. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE REGION FROM 31N67W THROUGH THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS TO EASTERN CUBA COAST AT 21N76W. SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWS LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS OVER MOST OF THE REGION W OF THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A RIDGE ALONG 28N. THE FRONT WILL PUSH EASTWARD THROUGH SAT TO EXTEND FROM 28N60W TO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FRI...AND NEARLY STATIONARY FROM 22N60W TO THE MONA PASSAGE SAT. STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT AND FRI WILL SUPPORT STRONG NE WINDS ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND ADJACENT ATLC WATERS WITH SEAS RANGING FROM 8 TO 12 FT NE OF THE BAHAMAS. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE GRADUALLY FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH IN COVERAGE ON SAT AS THE HIGH WEAKENS. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... GALE WARNING FRI NIGHT. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN NIGHT. .AMZ039...SW CARIBBEAN S OF 11N INCLUDING APPROACHES TO PANAMA CANAL... GALE WARNING FRI NIGHT. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER MUNDELL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.