000 AGXX40 KNHC 171840 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 140 PM EST WED FEB 17 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A SURFACE RIDGE PREVAILS ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH CENTERED ACROSS ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE W-SW TO THE TEXAS COAST NEAR CORPUS CHRISTI. ASIDE FROM A VERY SUBTLE WIND SHIFT AND INCREASE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH AXIS...MUCH OF THE BASIN IS EXPERIENCING GENTLE TO OCCASIONAL FRESH N TO NE WINDS WITH SEAS RANGING FROM 2-4 FT. AS THE TROUGHING SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE SW NORTH ATLC...THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EAST AS WELL AND BUILD ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH LATE THU. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN RESULTING IN FRESH TO STRONG E-NE WINDS ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF AND STRAITS OF FLORIDA FRI. SEAS WILL BUILD GRADUALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF AND REACH 5-7 FT...WITH LOCALIZED MAXIMUMS OF 8 FT BY FRI AND FRI NIGHT. BY SAT...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX SOMEWHAT WITH E-SE WINDS MAINTAINING MODERATE TO FRESH LEVELS. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE TO 4-6 FT OVERALL. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL MON NIGHT OR TUE. CURRENTLY THE GFS CARRIES A MORE AGGRESSIVE SOLUTION WITH THIS FRONT...WHILE THE ECMWF REMAINS A WEAKER SOLUTION AND SLOWER CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE NE GULF WATERS AND COASTAL PLAIN. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED IN THE CENTRAL ATLC AND LOW PRESSURE ANALYZED ACROSS NORTHERN COLOMBIA IS SUPPORTING STRONG E-NE WINDS IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA THIS AFTERNOON. RECENT ASCAT DATA SHOWS THIS AREA OF WIND IS GENERALLY N OF 15N BETWEEN 66W AND 77W. SEAS IN THIS AREA RANGE FROM 8 TO 10 FT...WITH THE LOCALIZED MAXIMUM IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA OF UP TO 11 FT. TO THE NW...A WEAKENING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL CUBA W-SW TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE FRONT CONTINUES TO RELAX THE EXISTING PRESSURE GRADIENT GRADUALLY WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO DECREASE SLIGHTLY THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT THEN INCREASE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE FRIDAY. ANOTHER RIDGE MOVING OFF THE SE U.S. SEABOARD WILL ONCE AGAIN STRENGTHEN THE GRADIENT THU NIGHT INTO FRI WITH NEAR GALE TO GALE FORCE NE WINDS EXPECTED TO MATERIALIZE FRI NIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH SAT NIGHT. IN ADDITION WITH THE STRENGTHENING RIDGE...NE WINDS THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND SW OF CUBA ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE INTO MODERATE TO STRONG BREEZE LEVELS FRI THROUGH SAT NIGHT. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 9-10 FT IN LENGTHY FETCH REGIONS DOWNWIND OF THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND 8-9 FT SW OF CUBA IN BETWEEN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND NE HONDURAS. AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS INTO THE SW NORTH ATLC REGION BY SUN NIGHT...THE TYPICAL TRADE WIND PATTERN ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WATERS WILL ONCE AGAIN RAMP UP WITH FRESH TO STRONG WINDS EXPECTED GENERALLY BETWEEN 70W-80W INTO MON. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE REGION FROM 31N70W THROUGH THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO THE CENTRAL CUBA COAST NEAR 22N78W. SCATTEROMETER AND SURFACE OBS INDICATE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT HAVE DIMINISHED DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS. GENTLE TO MODERATE W-NW WINDS PREVAIL W OF THE FRONT...AND FRESH TO STRONG S-SE WINDS ARE E OF FRONT. AN UNUSUALLY STRONG 1051 MB HIGH PRESSURE IN THE NORTH-CENTRAL ATLC CENTERED NEAR 41N41W EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS SW INTO THE AREA WITH A RATHER LARGE AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG E WINDS DEVELOPING N OF 20N E OF 55W. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE FRONT WILL PROGRESS SLOWLY BUT STEADILY EASTWARD THROUGH FRI NIGHT TO EXTEND FROM 31N65W TO EASTERN CUBA THU...23N65W TO HISPANIOLA FRI...AND NEARLY STATIONARY FROM 22N60W TO THE MONA PASSAGE SAT. STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT THU NIGHT INTO FRI WILL SUPPORT STRONG N-NE WINDS ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND ADJACENT ATLC WATERS WITH SEAS RANGING FROM 8 TO 12 FT NE OF THE BAHAMAS THU NIGHT LATE INTO FRI...THEN SUBSIDING GRADUALLY FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH IN COVERAGE ON SAT AS THE HIGH WEAKENS. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT. .AMZ039...SW CARIBBEAN S OF 11N INCLUDING APPROACHES TO PANAMA CANAL... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER HUFFMAN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.