000 AGXX40 KNHC 170737 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 237 AM EST WED FEB 17 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A COLD FRONT IS EXITING THE S GULF OF MEXICO. BENIGN WEATHER CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR 26N91W PREVAILS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. LIGHT TO GENTLE ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ARE DEPICTED ON LATEST ASCAT IMAGERY. EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO INTENSIFY AND SHIFT NE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THU. THIS WILL TIGHTEN THE PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION AND STRENGTHEN ELY WINDS TONIGHT THROUGH FRI...AND SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 6-8 FT S OF 25N E OF 88W TO INCLUDE THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DECREASE SAT AS HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL MON NIGHT OR TUE. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL ATLC AND LOW PRESSURE IN NORTHERN COLOMBIA IS SUPPORTING STRONG E-NE WINDS IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. ASCAT DATA SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF 25 KT WINDS FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 71W-76W. A COLD FRONT N OF AREA MOVING THROUGH THE BAHAMAS WILL WEAKEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...ALLOWING MAX WINDS TO DIMINISH TO 20-25 KT WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 8-9 FT NEAR COAST OF COLOMBIA. STRONG HIGH PRES IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL STRENGTHEN TRADE WINDS IN THE TROPICAL ATLC AND BUILD EASTERLY SWELL REACHING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS STRONG NE WINDS FUNNELING THROUGH WINDWARD PASSAGE AND SW OF CUBA INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT...WITH MAX SEAS BUILDING TO 8-10 FT DOWNWIND FROM WINDWARD PASSAGE NEAR JAMAICA. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN SAT AS THE HIGH N OF THE AREA WEAKENS. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE REGION FROM 31N72W THROUGH THE BAHAMAS TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. SCATTEROMETER AND SURFACE OBS INDICATE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT HAVE DIMINISHED RAPIDLY DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS. GENTLE TO MODERATE W-NW WINDS PREVAIL W OF THE FRONT...AND FRESH TO STRONG S-SE WINDS ARE E OF FRONT. UNUSUALLY STRONG 1050 MB HIGH PRESSURE IN THE N ATLC CENTERED NEAR 40N40W EXTENDS A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRES SW INTO THE AREA WITH A RATHER LARGE AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG E WINDS DEVELOPING N OF 20N E OF 65W. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE FRONT WILL PUSH SLOWLY BUT STEADILY EASTWARD THROUGH SAT TO EXTEND FROM 31N66W TO EASTERN CUBA THU...28N60W TO HISPANIOLA FRI...AND FROM NEARLY STATIONARY FROM 22N60W TO THE MONA PASSAGE SAT. EXPECT UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS TO SUPPORT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS N OF 24N E OF 70W THROUGH FRI. STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND FRONT THU NIGHT INTO FRI WILL SUPPORT STRONG NE WINDS ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND ADJACENT ATLC WATERS. FRESH NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED FRI NIGHT S OF 25N DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE ON SAT AS HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT. .AMZ039...SW CARIBBEAN S OF 11N INCLUDING APPROACHES TO PANAMA CANAL... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER MUNDELL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.