000 AGXX40 KNHC 161854 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 154 PM EST TUE FEB 16 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM OCALA FLORIDA TO 25N90W TO JUST S OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS NEAR 25N97W. THE FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SE GULF WATERS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT WHILE THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY BECOME DIFFUSE. A LARGE AREA OF 4-6 FT SEAS COVERS MOST OF THE AREA N OF 25N E OF 92W THAT IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH TONIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF. WITH THE HIGH...LIGHT TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WED NIGHT. BY THU...THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY PRODUCING A STRONGER GRADIENT AND SUPPORT FRESH TO OCCASIONAL STRONG NE WINDS THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT LATE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN GULF. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE 5-7 FT RANGE ACROSS THE SE GULF WATERS AND STRAITS OF FLORIDA. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DECREASE SAT AS THE HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS. THE NEXT FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL MON OR MON NIGHT OF NEXT WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE SE CONUS. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. FRESH TO STRONG E-NE WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS AND SHIFTS SLOWLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL NORTH ATLC. THE STRONG GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN THE 20 TO 30 KT WINDS THROUGH WED NIGHT WHEN THE AREA WILL SHRINK TO S OF 14N BETWEEN 67W AND 78W. SEAS ARE GENERALLY 6-8 FT WITH HIGHER 8-11 FT SEAS WITHIN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN...GENTLE TO MODERATE E-SE WINDS WILL BECOME NE BY WED AS A FRONTAL TROUGH PASSES TO THE NE OF CUBA. AS THE FRONT SHIFTS EAST...BY THU N-NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN WITH LOCALIZED AREAS OF STRONG BREEZE CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND LEE SIDE OF CUBA. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN SAT ONCE THE HIGH WEAKENS. ELSEWHERE...A MIX OF MODERATE NW SWELL AND LARGE E-NE SWELL WILL AFFECT THE TROPICAL ATLC WATERS THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND KEEP SEAS 7-10 FT THROUGH MIDWEEK. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. LATEST SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWS AN AREA N OF 27N E OF 80W OF STRONG TO NEAR GALE S-SW WINDS PRECEDING A COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM 31N80W TO NEAR DAYTONA BEACH FLORIDA. MOST LIKELY GALE FORCE CONDITIONS DIMINISHED AROUND 16/1500 UTC...AND THE GALE WARNING IN EFFECT CURRENTLY WILL LIKELY BE LIFTED AT THE NEXT OFFSHORE AND HIGH SEAS ISSUANCE THIS EVENING AS THE CONDITIONS HAVE MOVED NORTH OF THE AREA. A STRONG SQUALL LINE IS 120-150 NM EAST OF THE FRONT...GENERATING A STRONG LINE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF 26N BETWEEN 70W-78W. WINDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA ARE GENERALLY 20 TO 30 KT...WITH SEAS 8 TO 12 FT OUTSIDE OF THE AREA OUTLINED IN THE GALE WARNING AREA WHERE SEAS ARE 11-14 FT. A VERY STRONG HIGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL NORTH ATLC THROUGH THU AND THE ASSOCIATED FRESH TO STRONG FLOW WITHIN THE SW PERIPHERY WILL FEED INTO A DEVELOPING LOW ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD FOR A RATHER LARGE AREA OF THE FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ACROSS MOST OF ATLC WATERS E OF THE FRONT. MODELS HAVE COME INTO SLIGHTLY BETTER AGREEMENT BY 48 HOURS WITH THE FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS WED AND FROM BERMUDA TO THE SE BAHAMAS BY THU MORNING. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT WINDS BEHIND FRONT WILL INITIALLY BE MODERATE AHEAD OF A SECONDARY BOUNDARY THAT SWEEPS ACROSS NW PORTIONS WED. STRONG HIGH PRES WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND FRONT THU NIGHT INTO FRI AND WILL YIELD STRONG N-NE WINDS ACROSS BAHAMAS AND ADJACENT ATLC WATERS. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN TO A FRONTAL TROUGH FRI ACROSS THE SE WATERS WHILE GRADUALLY MOVING EAST BY FRI NIGHT. FRESH NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED FRI NIGHT S OF 25N DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE ON SAT AS HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER HUFFMAN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.