000 AGXX40 KNHC 160726 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 226 AM EST TUE FEB 16 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A COLD FRONT FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO NEAR 26N96W WILL MOVE ACROSS THE N CENTRAL AND NE PORTIONS TODAY...THEN MOVE E OF AREA TONIGHT. LARGE AREA OF 6-8 FT SEAS COVERING MOST OF THE AREA E OF 88W IS SHIFTING N TOWARDS THE COASTAL WATERS. WW3 MODEL ABOUT 1-2 FT LOW ACROSS THIS AREA. WEAK HIGH PRES AND LIGHT-MODERATE WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND FRONT THROUGH WED NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE EASTERN GULF THU THROUGH FRI NIGHT...PRODUCING STRONGER NE WINDS AND HIGHER SEAS OVER THE SE WATERS AND STRAITS OF FLORIDA. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DECREASE SAT AS THE HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS. NEXT FRONT NOT EXPECTED UNTIL MON OR MON NIGHT OF NEXT WEEK. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. FRESH TO STRONG E-NE WINDS CONTINUE OVER THE N CENTRAL CARIBBEAN INTO NW PORTIONS THIS MORNING AS STRONG HIGH PRES IS SHIFTING INTO NW ATLC MAINTAINING STRONG GRADIENT WINDS THAT HAVE VEERED GRADUALLY E-SE PAST 24 HOURS. RESULTANT SEAS STILL 6-8 FT ACROSS GOOD MAJORITY OF NW CARIB. PRES GRADIENT WILL BRIEFLY TIGHTEN IN E CARIB AND TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS TODAY...WHERE A BROAD ZONE OF STRONG TRADES ACROSS CENTRAL ATLC WATERS CONTINUES TO GENERATE ELY TRADE WIND SWELL REACHING TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS BLEEDING THROUGH E CARIB PASSAGES. A MIX OF MODERATE NW SWELL AND LARGE ENE SWELL WILL AFFECT TROPICAL ATLC WATERS NEXT FEW DAYS AND KEEP SEAS 7-10 FT THROUGH MIDWEEK. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SE IN THE WESTERN ATLC WILL MAINTAIN FRESH TO STRONG TRADES ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...AND MODERATE TO FRESH E WINDS ELSEWHERE THROUGH WED AS HIGH SHIFTS INTO NE ATLC. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO THU AND FRI WILL STRENGTHEN WINDS ACROSS NW/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. WINDS EXPECTED TO DECREASE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN SAT ONCE THE HIGH WEAKENS. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWS LARGE AREA OF STRONG NE WINDS NE OF THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS WHICH COINCIDES WITH AN AREA OF 11-12 FT SEAS DEPICTED IN ALTIMETER DATA. MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES GALE WARNINGS N OF 29N AHEAD OF FRONT EARLY THIS MORNING BETWEEN 06Z- 12Z BEFORE LIFTING OUT TO THE NE...AND WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE 2 NW ZONES. VERY STRONG HIGH ACROSS CENTRAL ATLC DURING TUE- THU WILL FEED INTO DEVELOPING LOW ALONG EASTERN SEABOARD FOR HUGE AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ACROSS MOST OF ATLC WATERS E OF THE FRONT. MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE SOMEWHAT IN FRONTAL POSITION BY 48 HRS WITH GFS FASTEST AND ECMWF SLOWEST AND HAVE ADJUSTED TO CLOSELY RESEMBLE ECMWF SOLUTION. FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL BAHAMAS WED AND FROM BERMUDA TO SE BAHAMAS BY THU MORNING. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT WINDS BEHIND FRONT WILL INITIALLY BE MODERATE AHEAD OF SECONDARY BOUNDARY THAT SWEEPS ACROSS N PORTIONS WED... THEN STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND FRONT THU WILL YIELD STRONG NE WINDS ACROSS BAHAMAS AND ADJACENT ATLC WATERS. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN TO A FRONTAL TROUGH THU NIGHT AND FRI OVER THE SE WATERS WHILE GRADUALLY MOVING E OF THE SE WATERS FRI NIGHT. FRESH NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED FRI AND FRI NIGHT S OF 27N DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE ON SAT AS HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... .AMZ111...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N W OF 77W... GALE WARNING TODAY. .AMZ113...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W... GALE WARNING TODAY. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER MUNDELL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.