000 AGXX40 KNHC 151920 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 220 PM EST MON FEB 15 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. FRESH RETURN FLOW INDUCED BY STRONG NW ATLC RIDGE CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF E HALF OF BASIN TODAY WHILE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS NEARING THE TEXAS COAST ATTM. RECENT OBS AND SCAT PASSES SHOWED SE TO SSE WINDS 20 TO LOCALLY 25 KT ACROSS NE QUARTER OF BASIN GENERALLY N OF 23N...EXTENDING ESE THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. LARGE AREA OF 6-8 FT SEAS NOW COVERS MOST OF THIS AREA E OF 89W AND IS SHIFTING N TOWARDS THE COASTAL WATERS. WW3 ABOUT 1-1.5 FT LOW ACROSS THIS AREA. WEAKENING WINDS VEERING TO SW ACROSS NW PORTIONS AHEAD OF FRONT. RECENT ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS ENTIRE BASIN HAS SEAS 3-5 FT ELSEWHERE ACROSS ENTIRE BASIN. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 48 HRS ON COLD FRONT...REACHING FROM BIG BEND REGION TO UPPER MEXICAN COAST BY 12Z MON...THEN ACROSS THE STRAITS AND WLY ACROSS S PORTIONS TO NEAR TAMPICO BY 12Z TUE...THEN SE OF THE REGION WED. WEAK HIGH PRES AND LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND FRONT THROUGH WED NIGHT. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD ACROSS THE BASIN THU AND FRI WITH RETURN FLOW PREVAILING THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. NEXT FRONT NOT EXPECTED UNTIL MON OR MON NIGHT OF NEXT WEEK. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. FRESH TO STRONG E-NE WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE N CENTRAL CARIB AND INTO NW PORTIONS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS ATLC FRONT HAS STALLED AND STRONG HIGH PRES IS SHIFTING INTO NW ATLC. THIS IS MAINTAINING STRONG GRADIENT WINDS N OF THE ATLC FRONT BUT HAVE VEERED GRADUALLY ACROSS NW PORTIONS PAST 24 HOURS. RESULTANT SEAS STILL 6-9 FT ACROSS GOOD MAJORITY OF NW PART...WHERE 42056 REMAINS AT 9 FT AND 42057 LINGERED AT 7 FT. WINDS BEGINNING TO VEER FURTHER FAR NW AND WILL OPEN UP INTO GULF THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GALES ACROSS COLOMBIA BASIN OVERNIGHT WERE DISCONTINUED AT 15Z...AND 14-15Z ASCAT PASSES SUGGEST THIS WAS ABOUT THE RIGHT TIMING WITH A SIZABLE AREA OF 30 KT STILL EVIDENT. WIND AND SEAS LIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ACROSS E CARIB ATTM AS INVERTED TROUGH DRIFTS WWD ACROSS THE MONA PASSAGE AND ADJACENT WATERS TO N AND OLD FRONT LINGERS THROUGH SE BAHAMAS. PRES GRADIENT TO WEAKEN TONIGHT THROUGH TUE NW PORTIONS AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE NW AND HIGH ACROSS NW ATLC SLIDES ENE INTO CENTRAL ATLC. OLD FRONT ACROSS ATLC AND SE BAHAMAS WILL BECOME MORE E TO W ALIGNED AND BEGIN TO LIFT N ON TUE AND PRES GRADIENT WILL BRIEFLY TIGHTEN E CARIB AND TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS...WHERE BROAD ZONE OF STRONG TRADES ACROSS CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC WATERS CONTINUES TO GENERATE ELY TRADE WIND SWELL PREVAILING ACROSS TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS AND BLEEDING THROUGH E CARIB PASSAGES. OTHERWISE...AS ATLC HIGH CONTINUES TO SHIFT ENE ACROSS CENTRAL ATLC...EXPECT FRESH TO STRONG TRADES TO PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH FRI WITH MODERATE TO FRESH E WINDS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE...INCLUDING THE TROPICAL N ATLC. A MIX OF MODERATE NW SWELL AND LARGE ENE SWELL WILL AFFECT TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS NEXT FEW DAYS AND KEEP SEAS 7-10 FT THROUGH MID WEEK. ILL DEFINED FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NW CARIB WED AFTERNOON EVENING AND SINK SLOWLY SSE TO E CENTRAL CUBA TO N BELIZE BY THU MORNING. HAS LEANED TOWARD SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION FOR THIS. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERS FROM ABOUT 31N55W THROUGH SE BAHAMAS TO CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 21N77W AND IS SUGGESTED TO BE DRIFTING WWD BY VIS IMAGERY ATTM STRONG PRES GRADIENT TO THE N AND NW OF BOUNDARY PRODUCING BROAD ZONE OF 20-25 KT NE WINDS SPREADING THROUGH THE S HALF OF THE BAHAMAS. RECENT ASCAT PASSES SUGGESTS THERE ARE SMALL AREAS OF 25-30 KT WINDS EMBEDDED IN THE POST FRONTAL ZONE. ELONGATED AREA OF HIGH SEAS 10-12 FT PLUS INDICATED BY MODELS AND 41046 JUST TO THE NW OF FRONT HAS BEEN HOVERING AROUND 13 FT ALL MORNING AND BRIEFLY WENT TO 15 FT. 1Z ALTIMETER PASS JUST W OF THERE SHOWED 11-12 FT. WW3 RUNNING 203 FT LOW IN THIS AREA AND 102 FT ELSEWHERE NW OF FRONT. MODELS STILL SHOWING SOME MODEST DISAGREEMENT WITH NEXT COLD FRONT AND EVOLUTION OF LOW TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT. CONSENSUS GIVES GALES N OF 29N AHEAD OF FRONT TONIGHT 06Z THROUGH 12Z BEFORE LIFTING OUT TO THE NE...AND GALES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE 2 NW ZONES. VERY STRONG HIGH ACROSS CENTRAL ATLC DURING TUE-THU WILL FEED INTO DEVELOPING LOW ALONG EASTERN SEABOARD FOR HUGE AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ACROSS MOST OF ATLC WATERS E OF THIS FRONT. MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE SOMEWHAT IN FRONTAL POSITION BY 48 HRS WITH GFS FASTEST AND ECMWF SLOWEST...AND HAVE ADJUSTED TO CLOSER RESEMBLE ECMWF. FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL BAHAMAS WED AND FROM BERMUDA TO SE BAHAMAS BY THU MORNING. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT WINDS BEHIND FRONT WILL INITIALLY BE MODERATE AS A SECONDARY BOUNDARY SWEEPS ACROSS N PORTIONS WED...AND THEN STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND FRONT THU AND WILL YIELD STRONG NE WINDS ACROSS BAHAMAS AND ADJACENT ATLC. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... .AMZ111...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N W OF 77W... GALE WARNING TONIGHT INTO TUE. .AMZ113...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W... GALE WARNING TUE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.