000 AGXX40 KNHC 150755 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 255 AM EST MON FEB 15 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. FRESH RETURN FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SW FROM HIGH PRES ALONG THE US EASTERN SEABOARD PREVAILS ACROSS THE REGION. SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWS FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY WINDS IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. STRONG HIGH PRES ACROSS MID ATLC STATES WILL SHIFT ENE TODAY WITH VEERING FLOW BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY ACROSS THE BASIN. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON NEXT COLD FRONT REACHING THE TX/LA COAST TONIGHT THEN SHIFTING ESE ACROSS NORTHERN WATERS AND FL PANHANDLE BY TUE MORNING AND FROM FL STRAITS TO TAMPICO AREA BY WED MORNING. WEAK HIGH PRES AND LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED BEHIND FRONT THROUGH WED NIGHT. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD ACROSS THE BASIN THU AND FRI WITH STRONGER RETURN FLOW. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. FRESH TO STRONG E-NE WINDS CONTINUE IN THE NW CARIBBEAN AND STRONG WINDS PERSIST IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH SMALL AREA OF GALE FORCE WINDS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE COLOMBIA COAST. WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY N OF THE AREA...AND STRONG HIGH PRES WELL N OF AREA IN US MID-ATLC REGION. STRONG HIGH MOVING INTO W ATLC WILL INDUCE GALE WARNINGS APPROACHING 40 KT THIS MORNING TO LINGER TO AT LEAST 12Z. PRES GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN TODAY AS HIGH SHIFTS INTO W ATLC...AND WINDS VEER MORE ENE ACROSS NW AND W CARIB. NEW WAVE GROWTH INITIATED BY THE VEERING WINDS WILL MILDLY DECREASE SEAS NW PART. WINDWARD PASSAGE AND OROGRAPHIC FORCING ALONG HISPANIOLA EXPECTED TO PRODUCE WINDS TO 25 KT THIS MORNING AND MAINTAIN ROUGH SEAS N AND N CENTRAL PORTIONS. GALE WARNINGS OFF COLOMBIA TO BUILD SEAS TO 13-14 FT THIS MORNING. MODELS SHOW SHEAR AXIS PERSISTING TODAY. OTHERWISE...AS HIGH SHIFTS ENE INTO CENTRAL ATLC...EXPECT FRESH TO STRONG TRADES TO PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH FRI WITH MODERATE TO FRESH E WINDS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE...INCLUDING THE TROPICAL N ATLC. A MIX OF MODERATE NW SWELL AND LARGE ENE SWELL WILL AFFECT TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS NEXT FEW DAYS AND KEEP SEAS 7-10 FT THROUGH MID WEEK. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERS AS TROUGH FROM 29N58W TO WINDWARD PASSAGE...WHILE A DYING STATIONARY FRONT CUTS ACROSS CENTRAL PORTION FROM 30N60W TO CENTRAL CUBA. SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWS FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS W OF THE FRONT...WITH HIGHEST WINDS NEAR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. FRESH TO STRONG E WINDS ALSO EVIDENT IN STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND APPROACHES TO WINDWARD PASSAGE. NEXT FRONT WILL APPROACH NW AREA TONIGHT AND TUE AS HIGH PRES SHIFTS ENE INTO CENTRAL ATLC...WITH LLVL FLOW RESPONDING AND VEERING SE ACROSS FAR W AND NW WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS WITHIN 150 NM NW OF FRONT DURING THIS TIME WILL REMAIN STRONG WITH NARROW ZONE OF 10-12 FT SEAS...AND 8-10 FT ELSEWHERE NW OF FRONT. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHIFT EVOLUTION OF LOW TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT...WITH GFS 30M WINDS SHOWING 35 KT N OF 30N AROUND 12Z TUE. MAY NEED TO CONSIDER GALE WARNING TUE MORNING E OF FRONT. VERY STRONG HIGH ACROSS CENTRAL ATLC DURING TUE-THU WILL FEED INTO DEVELOPING LOW ALONG EASTERN SEABOARD FOR HUGE AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ACROSS MOST OF ATLC WATERS E OF THIS NEXT FRONT. LONG NLY FETCH BEHIND FRONT AND SUPPORTING LOW TO GENERATE SIGNIFICANT SWELL EVENT FOR ENTIRE REGION. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... GALE WARNING EARLY TODAY. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... .AMZ111...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N W OF 77W... GALE WARNING TONIGHT INTO TUE. .AMZ113...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W... GALE WARNING TUE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER MUNDELL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.