000 AGXX40 KNHC 141950 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 250 PM EST SUN FEB 14 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. A BENIGN COLD FRONT HAS MOVED SE THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FL AND YUCATAN CHANNEL OVERNIGHT...WITH REMNANTS OF W END OF BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM YUCATAN PENINSULA NNW TO EXTREME SE TEXAS. FRESH RETURN FLOW HAS SET UP ACROSS W HALF AND N CENTRAL PORTIONS...WITH SEAS NOW 4-6 FT NW AND AROUND 4 FT NE. FRESHENING ENE FLOW NOW BLOWING THROUGH THE STRAITS AND VEERING SLIGHTLY AS IT PASSES N OF YUCATAN CHANNEL. SEAS LIKELY 5-6 FT AND BUILDING THERE. STRONG HIGH PRES BEHIND FRONT ACROSS MID ATLC STATES WILL SHIFT ENE INTO ATLC TONIGHT TO PRODUCING VEERING FLOW ACROSS THE BASIN...WHILE WARM FRONT ACROSS SE TEXAS SHIFT EWD INTO SW LA AND FLOW ACROSS NE PORTIONS BECOMES SSE NEAR 20 KT WITH SEAS BUILDING 5-7 FT. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON NEXT COLD FRONT REACHING THE TX/LA COAST MON EVENING AND SHIFTING ESE ACROSS NORTHERN WATERS AND FL PANHANDLE BY TUE MORNING AND THAN FROM STRAITS TO TAMPICO AREA BY WED MORNING. WEAK HIGH PRES AND LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS TO GENERALLY ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT THROUGH WED. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. OLD FRONTAL REMNANTS APPEAR TO LINGER FROM WINDWARD PASSAGE SW TO EXTREME NE HONDURAS ATTM...WITH RECENT SCAT PASSES SHOWING BROAD AREA OF 20-25 KT PREVAILING THROUGH WINDWARD PSG AND NW OF THIS BOUNDARY TO ABOUT 85W. MORNING BUOY AND ALTIMETER DATA SHOWED SEAS 8-11 FT ACROSS THIS AREA AND PERSIST ATTM. MEANWHILE LIGHT TO MODERATE ESE TRADES PREVAIL ACROSS FAR E AND NE CARIB...WITH FRESH TO STRONG TRADES CENTRAL AND SW PORTIONS. GALE CONDITIONS MAY HAVE BEEN BRIEFLY SEEN OVERNIGHT OFF COLOMBIA...BUT STRONG HIGH TO MOVE INTO W ATLC TONIGHT WILL INDUCE GALES APPROACHING 40 KT TONIGHT AND SUGGESTED BY MODELS TO LINGER TO AT LEAST 12Z...AND 15Z MAY BE BEST FORECAST. REINFORCING AND BENIGN COLD FRONT HAS MOVE THROUGH GULF OF MEXICO AND ACROSS NW CUBA AND YUCATAN CHANNEL...BUT BOND DRY MAKING IDENTIFICATION DIFFICULT ACROSS NW CARIB ATTM...AND REALLY NOT IMPORTANT FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER. PRES GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN TONIGHT AS HIGH SHIFTS INTO W ATLC...AND WINDS VEER MORE ENE ACROSS NW AND W CARIB. NEW WAVE GROWTH WILL BE INITIATED BY THE VEERING WINDS AND WILL ACTUALLY LEAD TO MILD DECREASE IN SEAS NW PART. WINDWARD PASSAGE AND OROGRAPHIC FORCING ALONG BARAHONA PENINSULA OF DOM REP EXPECTED TO PRODUCE WINDS TO 25 KT OVERNIGHT AND MAINTAIN ROUGH SEAS N AND N CENTRAL PORTIONS. GALES OFF COLOMBIA TO BUILD SEAS TO 13 OR 14 FT BY MORNING. MODELS SHOW WELL DEFINED SHEAR AXIS...THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY...PERSISTING THROUGH MON BEFORE WINDS VEER E TO SE ACROSS NW PORTIONS MON NIGHT AND TUE...AND ANY FURTHER FRONTAL REMNANTS WILL LIFT N OF AREA. OTHERWISE...A HIGH SHIFTS ENE ACROSS W AND INTO CENTRAL ATLC...EXPECT FRESH TO STRONG TRADES TO PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH THU WITH MODERATE TO FRESH E WINDS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE...INCLUDING THE TROPICAL N ATLC. A MIX OF MODERATE NW SWELL AND STRONG ENE WIND SWELL WILL AFFECT TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS NEXT FEW DAYS AND KEEP SEAS 7-10 FT THROUGH MID WEEK. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. OLD STATIONARY FRONT NOW DEPICTED AS SURFACE TROUGH ON MOST RECENT ANALYSIS EXTENDING FROM 30N59W TO WINDWARD PASSAGE...WHILE NEW AND BENIGN COLD FRONT IS MOVING SE ACROSS THE W ATLC...EXTENDING FROM 31N61.5W TO W CENTRAL CUBA ALONG 79W. STRONG HIGH PRES ACROSS MID ATLC STATES BUILDING ACROSS AREA BEHIND FRONT AND PRODUCING N TO NE FLOW TO THE NW OF BOTH BOUNDARIES...STRONGEST THROUGH STRAITS OF FL. BUILDING WIND SWELL MIXING WITH NW SWELL ACROSS WATERS E OF 64-75W...AND PRODUCING SEAS 8-11 FT NW OF FRONT AND 6-8 FT BETWEEN THE TWO BOUNDARIES. PRES GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN TONIGHT BEHIND COLD FRONT AS HIGH SHIFTS INTO W ATLC...AND PRODUCE LARGE AREA OF NE TO E WINDS 20-25 KT WITH ISOLATED SPOTS TO 30 KT POSSIBLE. NEXT FRONT WILL APPROACH AREA FROM NW MON NIGHT AND TUE AS HIGH SHIFTS FURTHER ENE INTO CENTRAL ATLC...WITH LLVL FLOW RESPONDING AND VEERING SE ACROSS FAR W AND NW WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS TO THE IMMEDIATE 150 NM NW OF FRONT DURING THIS TIME WILL REMAIN 25 KT PLUS WITH NARROW ZONE OF 10-13 FT SEAS...AND 8-10 FT ELSEWHERE NW OF FRONT. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHIFT EACH RUN ON EVOLUTION OF LOW TO DEVELOP ALONG NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WITH GFS AGAIN SHOWING GALES N OF 29.5N ACROSS NW PORTIONS E OF NEXT FRONT EARLY TUE THROUGH MIDDAY WHILE ECMWF SLIGHTLY WEAKER WITH SMALLER AREA N OF 30.5N. AT PRESENT I DO NOT HAVE GALES FORECAST FOR OUR ATLC WATERS BUT IS VERY CLOSE AND WILL HAVE TO MAKE A DETERMINATION NEXT FEW PACKAGES. STRONG HIGH ACROSS CENTRAL ATLC DURING THIS TIME WILL OPEN UP COMPLETELY INTO DEVELOPING LOW ALONG EASTERN SEABOARD FOR TREMENDOUS AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ACROSS MOST OF ATLC WATERS E OF THIS NEXT FRONT. FRONT TO MOVE INTO WRN WATERS WEAKLY EARLY WED WITH LITTLE GRADIENT WIND BEHIND IT...BEFORE HIGH BUILDS SWD INTO AREA LATE WED AND WED NIGHT FOR INCREASING WINDS BEHIND FRONT. FRONT TO REACH E CUBA TO ABOUT 30N70W THU MORNING AND 30N60W TO NW HAITI BY FRI MORNING. LONG NLY FETCH BEHIND FRONT AND SUPPORTING LOW TO GENERATE BIG SWELL EVENT FOR REGION. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... GALE WARNING TONIGHT INTO MON. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MON NIGHT. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.